20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World [Hardcover]

In this intriguing, clearly reasoned book, McKinsey consultant Courtney argues convincingly that managers can approach uncertainty systematically. Most managers, he says, either ignore potential problems or try to map out them out in painful detail. The better approach, Courtney contends, is to classify risk (e.g., a relatively clear future, a range of possibilities or true ambiguity) and hone a strategy based on a checklist he provides for each category. This appealing approach could become an integral part of the manager's toolkit.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

"Tackling uncertainty is tough, but Courtney brings his target down to earth with a solid thump" -- Entrepreneur, December 2001

Tackling uncertainty is tough, but Courtney brings his target down to earth with a solid thump. -- Entrepeneur, December 2001

Those willing to tackle a tough subject should find 20-20 Foresight well worth the effort.” -- Financial Executive, December 2001

In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times.

Now, McKinsey & Company consultant Hugh Courtney argues that managers must move beyond the outdated "all-or-nothing" view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, he suggests a simple-yet powerful-alternative: Understand the level of uncertainty you are facing in a given situation, and you will make better, more informed strategic choices.

Based on an international review of the key strategy problems faced by over one hundred leading companies, Courtney reveals how executives can develop 20/20 foresight--a view of the future that separates what can be known from what can't. While executives with 20/20 foresight can rarely develop perfect forecasts of the future, says Courtney, they can isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this insight to create competitive advantage in today's turbulent markets.

Unveiling a revolutionary framework for diagnosing to which of the four levels of residual uncertainty a specific strategy choice corresponds, 20/20 Foresight shows how readers can leverage this knowledge to answer three key strategic questions: 1) Shape or adapt to uncertainty? 2) Make strategic commitments now or later? and 3) Follow a focused or diversified strategy?

20/20 Foresight also:

· shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced,

· describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and

· includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time.

A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world.

Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey & Company in Washington D.C.

Based on McKinsey's large-scale review of the strategy problems their clients face,

the author brings deep insight and expertise to bear on this rich and complex topic.  Provides the frameworks and corresponding tools to make tough strategic

choices systematically and with greater confidence, whatever the level of uncertainty

faced.  Strategy under uncertainty is not only a timely topic, but it also has a long shelf-life.  The enthusiastic response to Courtney's HBR article, "Strategy under Uncertainty," proves that readers are interested in gaining more control over strategy development, despite the uncertainty they face.  Organizes and makes sense of the many competing approaches to strategy under uncertainty.  Includes lots of company stories and in-depth case examples.  Utilizes a helpful framework for categorizing 4 different levels of uncertainty, determining which level applies to a given decision, and tailoring suitable strategies to each level.

"This book represents a major step forward in mastering uncertainty. Most managers tackle risk and ambiguity in the wrong way. Hugh Courtney offers a splendid roadmap toward doing it right at last. Let's embrace uncertainty-rather than sweep it under the rug-since rich opportunities lurk in its furthest recesses."
-Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Coauthor of Winning Decisions, Research Director, Mack Center for Technological Innovation, The Wharton School, and Chairman, Decision Strategies International, Inc.

"20/20 Foresight is the Swiss Army Knife of tools for handling uncertainty. Hugh Courtney shows how to fit your decisions to an uncertain world and when to mold the world to fit your decisions. Louis Pasteur said that 'Luck favors the prepared mind'-this book won't make you lucky, but it will help you to be prepared." -Barry Nalebuff, Milton Steinbach Professor, Yale School of Management and Coauthor of Co-opetition

"Using financial analogies and concepts, 20/20 Foresight provides rigorous tools and practical solutions for use in the strategic decision-making process. Hugh Courtney thoroughly describes his methods and provides insightful examples that give readers the ability to embrace uncertainty."
-Earnest W. Deavenport, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Eastman Chemical Company

"Hugh Courtney has given me a set of practical tools and advice to drive our business forward. 20/20 Foresight is a must-read for all executives in decision-making roles."
-Nigel Morris, President, Cofounder and COO, Capital One

Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey & Company in Washington D.C.