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Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk [Hardcover]

Peter L. Bernstein
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (114 customer reviews)
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Book Description

Sep 7 1996 0471121045 978-0471121046
A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller

"Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The New York Times

"An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." -The Wall Street Journal

"A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." -Business Week

"Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." -The Economist

"[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." -Worth

"No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers

"With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University

In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.

"An extremely readable history of risk." -Barron's

"Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." -Money

"A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement

"There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." -The Australian

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From Amazon

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

From Publishers Weekly

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Customer Reviews

Most helpful customer reviews
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars Sloppy editing from Wiley Jan 21 2001
By Reader
Format:Hardcover
History is a deep subject. Probability theory is a deep subject. History of probability theory, and its applications to risk management is a very deep, if not murky, subject that deserves expert treatment. The author is commended for being the first to tackle such a thorny topic and to make serious effort to educate the lay reader. But the book is full of mistakes.

Other reviewers have already commented on mistakes in history and in mathematics. Let me comment on mistakes in physics. Page 200, Einstein did not discover the motion of electrons. In 1905, Einstein wrote a paper on Brownian motion of particles that could be observed using an optical microscope. Page 216: Einstein did not demonstrate than an imperfection lurked below the surface of Euclidean geometry. Einstein used Riemannian geometry to describe gravitatonal effects. Page 232: von Neumann was not instrumental in discovering Quantum Mechanics in Berlin during the 20's. von Neumann worked on mathematical aspects of Quantum Mechanics that are far removed from anything like discovering the subject. The problem with mistakes like that, is that they make one very suspicious of any other statement on a topic that one is not familiar with.

One more comment but this time on a historical matter: On page 200, the author labels Poincare' as "Bachelier's nemesis". I recently read a biography of Bachelier, that unfortunately I cannot locate, and my recollection is that Poincare' tried to help him obtain an academic position. I'm afraid the author took rather drastic poetic license here, and it would be interesting if someone clarifies this point.

I think the book suffers from lack of serious editing on behalf of the publisher. A non-academic author should not be expected to cover such a subject all on his own and get it all perfectly correct. If the above points are too technical for an editor, how about at least making sure that all names mentioned are correct? Page 245: is there a Nobel prize winner named "Henry Simon"? Do you mean the 1978 Economics Nobel winner Herbert Simon?

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2.0 out of 5 stars Technically out of date Dec 9 2012
Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase
Recently there have been extensive improvements in the analyses of data and prediction methods which the author may not know.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars History Buffs: Here you go! April 14 2004
By Maureen
Format:Paperback
Against the Gods draws you through a vast time span. Peter Bernstein begins with the conception of the Arabic numbeting system, up through present time super speed computers. Although, the history found in this book is interesting, the title leads you to believe it is all about investment risks, however it is more of a history text book than a manual. This book is a story of theories and how they developed. You will learn quite a bit about ancient times and how things evolved into the way that they are now, but do not expect any great help or advice on how to deal with risks in the investment world. Once you get into this book, Bernstein's writing sytle draws you in. The book is interesting enough, Bernstein's knowledge of hisotry is astounding. History Buffs: here ya go!
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Most recent customer reviews
4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent overview of the history of financial risk management
Against The Gods is a popular account of the history of financial risk management. The author takes us through a journey of discovery spanning almost a thousand years, from the... Read more
Published on Sep 12 2008 by Jacob Gajek
4.0 out of 5 stars Good outline of the history of risk
"Against the Gods" is a book outlining the history of risk. The book provides an outline of all the key players and their contribution to risk theory and management. Read more
Published on Mar 8 2004 by obediah
3.0 out of 5 stars Neutral Recommendation - Do Not Buy - Maybe Borrow
I am going to give you a short review and to the point.

I read this book because it was recommended on "Money Talk" the national radio show on every weekend for 6 hours on... Read more

Published on Feb 8 2004 by J. E. Robinson
5.0 out of 5 stars Five stars
Great book on risk and on the history of risk.
Published on Feb 3 2004
5.0 out of 5 stars Mathematics for freethinkers, for gamblers, for bankers
Any reader who picks up "Against the Gods" for mathematical amusement will be surprised to find out that "the revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and... Read more
Published on Jan 9 2004 by N. Tsafos
2.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing - Not really about the stock market
I bought this book because it was suggested after I ordered other books relating to the stock market and investing. Read more
Published on Dec 1 2003
5.0 out of 5 stars Great read! A must read history for any gambler or investor.
Bernstein is a true historian that writes in a very easy to read and engaging style. I had a hard time putting this book down. Read more
Published on Nov 4 2003 by Ronald Williams
5.0 out of 5 stars Moral: There is very little new under the sun!
As I went through the book, one thing I realized was that we seem to attribute pathbreaking ideas to people without realizing the history behind it all. Read more
Published on Sep 22 2003 by Ganesh V Jois
4.0 out of 5 stars Long on history, but short on risk management strategy
The title of my review is aimed at warning those expecting to find a risk management manual in this book that they will be disappointed. Read more
Published on Sep 14 2003 by Govindan Nair
5.0 out of 5 stars Very Comprehensive
Great book. Very comprehensive in its coverage of risk and risk methods.
Published on Sep 9 2003 by "exist2"
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