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Apollo's Arrow
 
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Apollo's Arrow (Hardcover)

by David Orrell (Author)
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
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Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks--are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos?

A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow’s weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives?

David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

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5.0 out of 5 stars Crunching the number-crunchers, Feb 10 2007
By Stephen A. Haines (Ottawa, Ontario Canada) - See all my reviews
(TOP 10 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   
Physicists insist that time travel is impossible. For physical objects, the speed of light cannot be exceeded, and that velocity is too firmly tied to the passage of time to be violated. Another form of time travel exists, however, one that's mental instead of physical. Using various numerical tools, we can undertake "travel" into the future. By doing so we shift the foundations of how we undertake planning and make decisions. How we do this and how well we've succeeded and what that bodes for the future is the theme of this study. A clearly organised and well-written effort, this book should have significant impact.

In Greek mythology, "Apollo's Arrow" [the book's original Canadian title] was a form of time machine. Those fortunate enough to seize the passing arrow could be conveyed over obstructions and help perceive events. Orrell uses this as a metaphor to examine the forecasting of three significant elements: weather, health and wealth. Although at first glance these seem wildly disparate, he explains how the methods applied to them are very similar. And with similar results.

Orrell opens with a discussion of the ancient "forecasters" of Delphi where the prophecies of the Pythian Apollo were expressed. Although these prophecies were obscure and possibly misleading, people made decisions based on what they believed was said. From the beginning, some petitioners to the Oracle were favoured over others, allowing them to dictate conditions. The mathematician Pythagoras added a new dimension to the forecasts by applying the power of numbers to them - although the method by which this was accomplished remains unknown. Nevertheless, today's forecasting is based on numerical analytical methods. Are they a real improvement over Apollo's expressions?

Orrell begins answering that question with everybody's favourite topic - the weather. Although the ancients made many attempts to understand the workings of weather, it wasn't until the Renaissance that real gains were achieved. The invention of the thermometer and barometer initiated measurements that could be recorded and analysed over time. Further technological leaps seem to bring better forecasts. Robert FitzRoy, "evolution's captain" initiated the first forecasting service across the British Isles. Although complex mathematical models have since ensued, Orrell argues that the systems under investigation are too vulnerable to small perturbations to allow truly reliable forecasts of weather systems.

The same inhibition holds true for the other fields of Orrell's presentation, health and wealth. No matter how well refined and tested the model, little incidents or influences can skew the final pictures. Small, almost undetectable factors have the capacity to set in train a cascade of unforeseeable outcomes, rendering the most carefully conceived model ineffective. Trying to fit the model into the real world's events as they unfold results in the designers engaging in hand-wringing and often weak excuses. Orrell is mildly scornful that failures of models predicting events don't seem to discourage the modellers from making strong assertions about how well they are doing. In his mind, this can be amusing in some cases, but disastrous in others. He would not abandon numerical models or forecasting, but insists that these techniques be approached and used realistically. Those affected by the models will also have more realistic expectations. That is a message that needs wide exposure and it's hoped this book will help provide that. Uncritical acceptance of forecasts, no matter how authoritative they may appear, can lead to serious consequences. Understanding the limitations and shortcomings is vital [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
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