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Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (Expanded and Updated Edition) Paperback – Nov 13 2003


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Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; Expanded and Updated edition (Nov. 13 2003)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0470870907
  • ISBN-13: 978-0470870907
  • Product Dimensions: 18.1 x 2.4 x 23.3 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 408 g
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (100 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #587,015 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

Product Description

From Amazon

In Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter explains why he thinks the boom times are behind us. Based on his interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle (an idea premised on the notion that mass investor psychology is what really drives markets), Prechter believes that the U.S. economy is about to enter into a deflationary depression that few investors are prepared to deal with. In making his case, Prechter assembles an impressive array of data that in essence suggests that the bill for the last 10 years of market excess is about to come due. The second half of the book shows how to avoid becoming "a zombie-eyed victim of the depression" and offers advice on protecting one's assets in a deflationary environment (cash is king). If there's any good news in the future that Prechter sees coming (other than how to avoid it), it's that all-out depressions don't last very long. Conquer the Crash should appeal to gloom-and-doom investors and to those desperately looking for a safe haven from the uncertainties of today's markets. --Harry C. Edwards --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Review

"…A must read especially for the discerning investor…" (Malaysian Business, 16 November 2003)

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Customer Reviews

3.8 out of 5 stars

Most helpful customer reviews

9 of 9 people found the following review helpful By T. Austin on Aug. 27 2002
Format: Hardcover
Let me get this off my chest first: I read every single review here at Amazon before I bought this book and I must say that the negative reviews; or more accurately the nasty ones, lead me to believe that the reviewers did not read the book. I say that because even if Prichter is wrong, and there is no upcoming "Deflationary Depression" and this decade is all blue skies just like the late 1990's were, any subsequent readers who followed his advice to the exact letter of the verbage would NOT lose any of their assets whatsoever. Therefore, how could this book do harm? At worst it educates the reader as to how to handle uncertain times. There is no bad or harmful advice in this book.
His advice is basically to pay off your bills, put your money in rock solid banks. Don't rely on the government to protect you, buy some precious metals, and get ready to profit once we are at the rock bottom by way of investment strategies that take advantage of the subsequent inflation post a "Deflationary Depression." What's harmful about being in cash?
Now the review: Prichter is confident that there is going to be a deflationary depression. A period of great contraction in our economy that drives down any and all inflated value out of any goods or services such as the depression the United States suffered through in 1929.
He supports his premise with monetary statistics such as the 30 trillion dollar credit bubble that America now has, and numerous other statistics that aren't that pretty.
Prichter also bases his premise for a "Deflationary Depression" on a controversial charting method known as "The Elliot Wave Theory". It's controversial in that some stock market analysts think it is merely conjecture, while other analysts feel it is an absolute, social, "fractal".
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Thomas Mongle on Feb. 18 2004
Format: Paperback
Robert Prechter is expecting a devastating dose of deflation leading to a depression, and no collective body (read "government") can do anything about it. He is one of the "old-timers" who has survived the market's up and downs for more than 20 years, and his outlook on our situation is not to be taken lightly. Being high profile, his pronouncements make headlines, and it's all too easy to point to a previous mistake and write him off. However, his scholarship is second to none. He's been right in the past; he just may be right again. And if he is, most of us are in real trouble. Thus, his argument is too important to dismiss without a thorough reading.
Prechter starts with a good overview of his pride and joy, and the basis of all his study - The Elliott Wave Theory. His conclusion is that we are at the end of the 5th wave of the Grand Supercycle which reaches all the way back to 1700. We're talking big-time financial implications here.
To quote Prechter on describing the milieu we've just lived through, "Third waves are built upon muscle and brain. Fifth waves are built upon cleverness and dreams. During third waves, people focus on production to get rich. During fifth waves, they focus on finance to get rich." Sounds remotely familiar.
At the bottom of all our troubles is debt. Gobs and gobs of debt, piled as high as the eye can see. Deflation/depression results in a contraction of credit as debt gradually gets wiped out...one way or the other. It produces a line of falling dominos where less credit means less borrowing means less spending means less production means less employment...which means more liquidations which means more defaults as everything feeds on the downward spiral.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful By David J. Gannon on Aug. 7 2002
Format: Hardcover
Robert Prechter, Jr. was to the 1980's what Abby Joseph Cohen was to the 1990's-the market guru with the golden touch and the fanatical following.
I was in investment banking from 1977 through 1987 and Prechter was everywhere. His newsletter was the equivalent of "required reading". He was quoted extensively. He could-and did-move markets.
He achieved his status through dogged, unabashed bullishness in the very early 80's and burnished his reputation further by correctly calling the top of the market cycle in mid 1986. That's when the Midas touch deserted him-he hasn't been close to a correct call on the market since, having converted to a "doom and gloom" analyst and being a dogged bear throughout the 1990's. His last book predicted this bear market-a bit early.
Well, way early. At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market was written in 1995. He missed the mark by 7 years and a few trillion in market value but hey, whose counting?
Apparently not the people buying Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, Prechter's attempt to exploit his bearish credentials of the past decade and a half to reestablish his status as market guru extraordinaire (Ms. Cohen, having blown several major calls lately, has left the title open for the moment for the taking).
So, is Prechter back? Is this the book that will keep you in the lead financially and save your fiscal bacon?
Probably not.
First of all, the likelihood we are entering a "depression" is highly doubtful. The unemployment rate-normally the preeminent statistic for judging downturns and depressions-has averaged about 5.5% during the recession we now "enjoy" By way of perspective, in the 1980's 5% unemployment was considered "full" employment.
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