Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression Hardcover – Jun 21 2002
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In Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter explains why he thinks the boom times are behind us. Based on his interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle (an idea premised on the notion that mass investor psychology is what really drives markets), Prechter believes that the U.S. economy is about to enter into a deflationary depression that few investors are prepared to deal with. In making his case, Prechter assembles an impressive array of data that in essence suggests that the bill for the last 10 years of market excess is about to come due. The second half of the book shows how to avoid becoming "a zombie-eyed victim of the depression" and offers advice on protecting one's assets in a deflationary environment (cash is king). If there's any good news in the future that Prechter sees coming (other than how to avoid it), it's that all-out depressions don't last very long. Conquer the Crash should appeal to gloom-and-doom investors and to those desperately looking for a safe haven from the uncertainties of today's markets. --Harry C. Edwards
"So why bother paying Prechter any mind at all?...he's more right than Wall Street's Establishment usually admits." (BusinessWeek, July 22, 2002)See all Product Description
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Top Customer Reviews
His advice is basically to pay off your bills, put your money in rock solid banks. Don't rely on the government to protect you, buy some precious metals, and get ready to profit once we are at the rock bottom by way of investment strategies that take advantage of the subsequent inflation post a "Deflationary Depression." What's harmful about being in cash?
Now the review: Prichter is confident that there is going to be a deflationary depression. A period of great contraction in our economy that drives down any and all inflated value out of any goods or services such as the depression the United States suffered through in 1929.
He supports his premise with monetary statistics such as the 30 trillion dollar credit bubble that America now has, and numerous other statistics that aren't that pretty.
Prichter also bases his premise for a "Deflationary Depression" on a controversial charting method known as "The Elliot Wave Theory". It's controversial in that some stock market analysts think it is merely conjecture, while other analysts feel it is an absolute, social, "fractal".Read more ›
Prechter starts with a good overview of his pride and joy, and the basis of all his study - The Elliott Wave Theory. His conclusion is that we are at the end of the 5th wave of the Grand Supercycle which reaches all the way back to 1700. We're talking big-time financial implications here.
To quote Prechter on describing the milieu we've just lived through, "Third waves are built upon muscle and brain. Fifth waves are built upon cleverness and dreams. During third waves, people focus on production to get rich. During fifth waves, they focus on finance to get rich." Sounds remotely familiar.
At the bottom of all our troubles is debt. Gobs and gobs of debt, piled as high as the eye can see. Deflation/depression results in a contraction of credit as debt gradually gets wiped out...one way or the other. It produces a line of falling dominos where less credit means less borrowing means less spending means less production means less employment...which means more liquidations which means more defaults as everything feeds on the downward spiral.Read more ›
I was in investment banking from 1977 through 1987 and Prechter was everywhere. His newsletter was the equivalent of "required reading". He was quoted extensively. He could-and did-move markets.
He achieved his status through dogged, unabashed bullishness in the very early 80's and burnished his reputation further by correctly calling the top of the market cycle in mid 1986. That's when the Midas touch deserted him-he hasn't been close to a correct call on the market since, having converted to a "doom and gloom" analyst and being a dogged bear throughout the 1990's. His last book predicted this bear market-a bit early.
Well, way early. At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market was written in 1995. He missed the mark by 7 years and a few trillion in market value but hey, whose counting?
Apparently not the people buying Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, Prechter's attempt to exploit his bearish credentials of the past decade and a half to reestablish his status as market guru extraordinaire (Ms. Cohen, having blown several major calls lately, has left the title open for the moment for the taking).
So, is Prechter back? Is this the book that will keep you in the lead financially and save your fiscal bacon?
First of all, the likelihood we are entering a "depression" is highly doubtful. The unemployment rate-normally the preeminent statistic for judging downturns and depressions-has averaged about 5.5% during the recession we now "enjoy" By way of perspective, in the 1980's 5% unemployment was considered "full" employment.Read more ›
Most recent customer reviews
there is going to be a major crash in the coming times and this book is an excellent guid to prepare for it.Published on Dec 21 2013 by gary smith
This book was full of a lot of unsubstantiated facts, guesswork and straight-line predictions which, together presented a mish-mash of script which, in my opinion, failed to... Read morePublished on Nov. 25 2013 by Chris from Canada
Having read lots of Prechter's free reports, analysis and excerpts before buying two copies of this, I was expecting exactly what I got when I bought the 2ed the day it came out:... Read morePublished on March 14 2010 by Steve Howe
This is an excellent primer on the implications of elliott wave theory for the comming markets probable movement. A thorough "how to get your money safe" guide for everyone. Read morePublished on Dec 21 2009 by Luke Benard
I read this book back in 2003. Prechter talks about the extreme debt build up in the United States. The housing bubble and the problems with Fannie Mae are also discussed. Read morePublished on Oct. 11 2008 by Patrick Sullivan
I like Prechter because he's an interesting, unconventional thinker. But... I want to be careful and fair... doesn't his track record leave quite a bit to be desired? Read morePublished on June 27 2004
Prophets of doom have always made entertaining reading. In his latest fire-and-brimstone warning, Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Read morePublished on June 6 2004 by Rolf Dobelli
Mr. Prechter is best known as a popular advocate for the Elliot Wave principle. He continues this school of thought in this book.
The book is divided into two parts. Read more
If you take anything at all from this book, it should be that the only way to stay afloat in the financial world is to spend wisely, save at least 10-15% of your income each year,... Read morePublished on March 26 2004 by Rocco A. Savaiano
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