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Dreman pays only cursory attention to a company's business fundamentals in deciding whether to invest in it. Instead he looks for stocks trading at below-market multiples of per-share earnings, cash flow, book value, or dividend yield. Historically, Dreman claims, stocks that are cheap by any of these measures have tended to outperform the market average, although this is disputed by those who believe the stock market is efficient and therefore impossible to beat except by accident. Dreman devotes many pages to debunking their research. He offers a new refinement of his low-price strategy, which involves picking the cheapest stocks within industries, to create a diversified, contrarian portfolio.
Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation is full of practical and provocative advice, but some of its most interesting passages delve into the abstruse findings of cognitive psychology. This research has proven that we are woefully inadequate as intuitive statisticians. Interpreting data to make predictions about the probability of future events, we consistently make the same mistakes. For example, we exaggerate the likelihood that current trends will continue, even when they are historically exceptional. (Logic dictates that trends are more likely to regress toward the mean.) This fallacy explains why most Wall Street insiders were gloomiest about stocks in 1981, after six years of falling prices, just before the beginning of the greatest bull market ever. Is today's widespread optimism among investors a reason for caution? Dreman thinks so.
It seems our brains are hard-wired to underperform the market. That's why few investors can keep to a contrarian approach. Dreman recommends buying stocks when prices fall, the worse the panic the better. But that requires overriding powerful instincts.
Besides reflecting Dreman's wide reading in finance, psychology, and history, his book also displays his sometimes windy and self-important writing style. At 464 pages, the book is not a quick read. But its intellectual depth and thoroughly tested advice make many other investment books look paltry and superficial by comparison. Serious, independent investors will find it rewarding. --Barry Mitzman
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Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars
David Dreman is a pro's pro,
By
This review is from: Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Classic Edition (Hardcover)
I've written several books on investing and know how much research goes into the final product. David's books have always stood out as outstanding examples of everything a good investment book should be-filled with facts, not opinions; useful for novice and professional alike; and above all, beautifully written and thought out. David's works have stood the test of time and show that while fads may come and go, successful investing always comes back to understanding and controlling human nature. I highly recommend this and all of Dreman's books.
2.0 out of 5 stars
Correct premise, but boring, good for novices,
By
This review is from: Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Classic Edition (Hardcover)
The basic principles of this book could be boiled down to a paragraph, but Dreman spends more than 400 pages. I agree with contrarian investing, so this book is an essential read if you're a novice, in school, or maybe just starting to risk capital, but not recommended for experienced professionals. A plus is that the book offers practical advice and real life examples, but it is somewhat dated since it was written pre-Internet crash. Another warning is that this book is extremely dry and reads like an academic textbook--reminds me of AIMR's Financial Analyst's Journal, but not as substantive.
1.0 out of 5 stars
The author does not share,
By A Customer
This review is from: Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Classic Edition (Hardcover)
There are 2 types of authors in finance:Those who share their secrets and those who promote something. Dreman shares but only the general strategies that we've heard many times before. What he doesn't share is how after reading this book you might get really discouraged and contact his firm in order to manage your money.His style is discouraging and dull. Dreman is a great investor with greedy strategy to get your money. This is how the middleman will take your money.
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