Countdown to Terror: The Top-Secret Information that Could Prevent the Next Terrorist Attack on America--and How the CIA Has Ignored It [Hardcover]

In "Countdown to Terror" we have a first person account of our failings in The War on Terror which are specifically described in light of the 12th Iman plot. It comes straight from the mouth of Curt Weldon, Congressman, and vice chairman of the House Armed Service Committee. He immediately states that a "politically correct" attitude towards intelligence has eroded our national security. I should state ahead of time that it is a partisan account (which doesn't bother me) as the Republican representative blames the Clinton Administration for much of what is wrong with our intelligence apparatus today. Also, Weldon provides documents revealing that the Iranian government actively desired a Democrat in the White House in 2004, and that they had businessmen channeling funds for this purpose.

Weldon is introduced to an Iranian revolutionary, counter-revolutionary as the case may be, to whom he gives the name "Ali." He goes to Paris to meet with him, and then forwards the information to the CIA who allegedly send a member of the French Interior Ministry to threaten Ali and demand that he keep quiet. Ali has well-developed sources in Iran who have told him all kinds of things which would shock the American public--and everybody else. Most important are:

1. At the present time, Osama bin Laden is being hidden and sheltered in Iran by the Iranian government.

2. Iran is sponsoring and planning an assassination attempt on the first President Bush.

3. The Iranian government's attempt to build a nuclear bomb is far more advanced than we know.

4. Iran is actively trying to purchase a nuclear weapon from North Korea.

5. Ayatollah Khameni put out a contract (so to speak) on Yassir Arafat due to his wish to derail "an American peace."

The overall theme of the book is "speak truth to bureaucracy." Weldon knows that it goes against tradition and his better judgment, but he wishes to take his case to the American people so that they can be fully informed of the information that he has, which the CIA does not regard as being accurate.

The impression that one has, after reading this account, of Ayatollah Khameni and his Committee of Nine is that they are completely mad. They anticipate an American invasion of Iran and are actively taking steps to prevent it. The leadership fully believes that they are not like Iraq and will win a showdown with the United States. They regard the first President Bush as being the real brains behind the W presidency and that is why they wish to eliminate him. Most intriguing to me, is that the Iranian government has created a Legion of Foreigners known as the "Fer de lance" which boasts 22,000 members from various countries.

The book is mostly comprised of letters and memoranda that the Congressman has received from Ali. For this reason, while the work is very interesting, I cannot recommend to you that you purchase its 200 pages for the price they're asking. Picking it up used, or at least in paperback, is best practice unless you are independently wealthy. Yet, for those who follow the behaviors of Islamofacist Iran, the story is infinitely believable.

I have now completed a majority of this book. However, I have also read the article at the American Prospect website which other reviewers and the magazine itself claim totally discredits Congressman Weldon on the subject of this book. After reading this article, I am far from prepared to dismiss the congressman's claims. The writers of the American Prospect claim that a man named Mahdavi is actually the intelligence source named Ali in Weldon's book. They give nothing to back this up except the claims of an elderly man from Iran who claims that Weldon stole the story from him. Also, the article says that the reporters spoke to the CIA official who Weldon says disregarded the information from Ali. It is well known that there exists a defensive and protective culture in the CIA. It is natural that a retired official of the CIA would desire retaliation after receiving such a scathing condemnation against himself as well as the CIA. I see no reason to believe these individuals over the word of Congressman Weldon. The American Prospect clearly seeks to give a sinister portrayal of a Republican congressman. Keep in mind that this is a liberal/progressive magazine. However, I would encourage you to take some initiative and read the article yourself at prospect.org. It is titled "Curt Weldon's Deep Throat."

As far as the content of the book goes, I must say that if Congressman Weldon is right, we all have reason to be aware of a possible impending nuclear terrorist attack. If the book is true, we have all been disgustingly unaware of the danger facing our country. I would recommend atleast reading the book through once to judge its credibility for yourself.

I can't decide whether Congressman Weldon is a lousy writer or a devilishly clever one. Given the conversations that I have heard about the book, perhaps it is the latter.

The point of this book is not the intelligence that Weldon received from "Ali." It cannot be. The intelligence is -- at the time of the book's release -- either common knowledge or common suspicion. Apparently "Ali" was (is?) a pretty good source, since most of his predictions about Iranian moves against the U.S. proved accurate after the predictions were passed to Weldon. In fact, one of "Ali's" predictions has been fulfilled in the weeks AFTER the book's release ... namely that the Iranian election would be rigged to elect as president not only an extreme hard-liner but one who is non-clerical.

The issue of "Ali" and the treatment of his intelligence -- in particular by the CIA -- is the hook on which the Congressman chooses to hang his continuing justifiable outrage over the bungling bureaucratic structure of U.S. intelligence. It is Weldon's contention (probably a sound one!) that the "feel-good" reforms of the four years since 9/11 have skirted around dealing with the real problem. The real problem, he says, is a set of precepts and ways of doing business that protect the least competent and penalize enterprising agents and analysts at lower levels. The worst of these practices is "groupthink" that dumbs intelligence down to something that even the lead-heads will agree with and does not allow competing views to filter up to policy-makers. The solution, he says, is to fire some folks. OK, Congressman. It works for me!

So what are the problems with the book?

First, "Ali" brings up all the perennial problems of HUMINT. As a former member of the Shah's government and an avowed active promoter of the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, "Ali" has an axe to grind and an agenda of his own. "Ali" also wants money in order to keep the information coming. (Quelle surprise!) Finally, he has been associated with Gorbanifar. (Remember Iran-Contra?) None of these facts obviates the significance of "Ali's" information. They just mean that a) if CIA bureaucrats want to discredit him they have obvious starting-points and b) "Ali's" information -- like all HUMINT -- cries out for independent confirmation or some measure of skepticism.

Second, to those of us who try to follow this stuff, "Ali's" inconsistent transliteration of Arabic names should really have some explanation imbedded in the text. It takes a second look sometimes to figure out who we are talking about. e.g. Alzavaheri (Ayman Al-Zawaheri), Alzrghavi (Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi), and Emad Mognie (Imad Mugniyeh, one of the bloodiest and most dangerous terrorists in Iran's Hizb'allah stable).

Still, despite the flaws, the book is a great read and ought not be passed up.

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