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Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market Hardcover – Oct 1 1999


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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 304 pages
  • Publisher: Crown Business; 1 edition (Oct. 1 1999)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0812931459
  • ISBN-13: 978-0812931457
  • Product Dimensions: 23.4 x 15.2 x 2.8 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 567 g
  • Average Customer Review: 2.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (60 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #1,501,709 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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2.6 out of 5 stars
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Format: Paperback
The Dow 36,000 Theory is all about predicting a paradigm shift in current investors' perceptions. Tomorrow's investors are expected to forsake the old paradigm and embrace a new one. Authors James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett present the "discounted dividend" model of the stock market as their reason why stock prices will soar, eventually. In 1999, they said it could happen anytime but put a window on it of 3-5 years. Hasn't happened yet. But this book is important as a look-see into how academic constructs originate and work their way into "commonly accepted stock market wisdom." The P/E was once a kernel of an idea in someone's head. Now, it's the basic way to value stocks. So, conceptions do change over time.
Dividends, say Glassman and Hassett, whether paid out quarterly or totally retained in the company, are the only important way to determine a company's true worth. They call it the PRP (perfectly reasonable price).
To justify lofty expectations, the words "assume" and "assumption" are used dozens of times and lie at the bottom of what, so far, is wrong with this concept. Just because they calculate something as being worth many times what it's selling for today doesn't mean prices will skyrocket tomorrow. It requires acknowledgement and action by investors. We're back to the old high school conundrum of whether a tree makes any noise if it falls in a forest without anybody hearing it. It this case, the question is whether a stock will ever sell at its "true value" if nobody ever bids the price up that far? Obviously not.
Their credo, "Buy anytime, hold forever," as well as the recommended use of index funds is a recipe for never having to admit you're wrong regardless of what happens to your investment account.
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By A Customer on Nov. 7 2002
Format: Paperback
As an addendum to my previous review, where I wrote that one reason I got out of the market was this book, let me add that before I get back into the market I'm waiting for "Dow 36" by Glassman and Hassett.
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By A Customer on Nov. 6 2002
Format: Paperback
This book was one of the reasons I got completely out of the stock market in late '99 early 2000. When I read this pustulous piece of putrescent puffery I just knew I had to get out. THANK YOU KEVIN AND JAMES!!!!!
I come to write this review because just for a lark I thought I'd search the internet for Glassman, see what he's pushing today, so I can get out of it for my own safety.
In writing this review I treat the authors' late-90s media appearances and book-related articles all as one whole.
Hassett and Glassman are out there now (Nov 2002) writing (paraphrased) "we never wrote the DOW would be at 36000 soon".
I read the book in fact in winter 99/00 along with some of their articles, and did catch a few of their TV appearances. They definitely did write either in the book or one of the accompanying pieces (Washington Post or The Atlantic) that stocks are in a 'one-time surge' and everyone must GET IN NOW.
Their media appearances were even worse...
"GET IN NOW!!!
DON'T MISS THIS ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY!!!!
YOU'RE FOOLS IF YOU DON'T
MORTGAGE YOUR HOUSE TO BUY STOCK!!"
They used to remind me of that Joe Piscopo SNL salesman character (you remember, the frenzied salesman, "WE MUST BE INSANE!!! OUR PRICES ARE SO LOW WE'LL GO OUT OF BUSINESS YESTERDAY!!!!").
And they are completely unrepentant. I just read a Glassman article (Wash Post - why the ...are they still giving this unrepentant, lying moron/clown a stage?) claiming he was right all along and 36000 is STILL the DOW's fair value. Claiming that Siegel's research supported G&H's conclusions (Siegel, who currently seems bullish said they misconstrued his research. Interesting word, misconstued - is Siegel saying G&H are liars, idiots, or some combination thereof?).
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By A Customer on Oct. 11 2002
Format: Paperback
This book is proof that, during the sort of financial mania that occurs about every three generations (when the folks who suffered through the aftermath of the last one [Great Depression] are gone or in retirement homes), ingenious rationalizations are created to perpetuate the optimism. We're now about six months from the 3-year anniversary of the beginning of the Millennium Bear Market, and we haven't even gotten to the point of private Dow investor panic; so far, it's mostly just institutional investors who have been selling. When the post-bubble (yes, it was a bubble a la Tulipomania) consequences are fully realized over the next few years, many people will be compelled to sell regardless of their desire to "buy and hold" because they'll need the money to pay their bills. Study history and you can pretty clearly see what's coming (although no one can predict the timing or exact chain of events)...an epidemic of personal and corporate bankruptcies, skyrocketing inflation as the government prints money like mad to combat deflation ,and massive unemployment and general hardship. One aftermath effect that can almost absolutely be counted on (because it has happened after all other paper asset bubbles throughout history) is a flight from paper assets to tangibles. Real estate has already been in a bubble of its own, but the commodities market is just getting warmed up. Gold has started a bull market, and gold mining stocks (those of companies who do not sell their unmined gold in the futures market, aka "hedging") have done spectacularly well since 1/1/2002. They are the hottest sector in the stock market, but the popular media (e.g., CNBC) pretty much ignores them. Look at articles about "what sectors performed best over the last year" and mining stocks aren't discussed.Read more ›
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