The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World (Paperback)

Changing the energy basis of a society isn't a novelty of the "modern" world, Roberts suggests. Humanity has shifted from wood fuel to coal, and from coal to petrochemicals. There was resistance in each case, because people cling to the known. Woodstoves might burn coal, but oil-fired systems are a major shift in technology. So, too, Roberts argues, will (be?) the replacements for oil furnaces or petrol burning autos, whether using natural gas, or hydrogen fuel cells. This approach enables the author to address both the existing patterns of energy extraction and use as well as the options facing us in making substitutions. He carefully examines the technology and economics of the various alternative energy supply methods. Hydrogen fuel cells are given a full hearing, with an account of Geoffrey Ballard's attempt to launch a successful production firm. Ballard didn't quite succeed, but the potential remains available. Roberts also examines solar panels and wind power for electricity generation. In Europe, of course, wind power is a major factor and growing rapidly. In Roberts' eyes, however, his own nation is less sympathetic over wind power. How much this is due to personal choice and how much to energy industry negative propaganda remains unclear. The energy lobbyists, as the author notes, have not been idle. Investment in coal and oil is too great to overturn readily.

Roberts squarely addresses the economic issues of new energy forms . If society is to endure a transition to wind, hydrogen or natural gas power, what will be the costs? "Consider the scale of the task", he says, noting that the conveyors and users of the primary fuels, coal and oil, have over ten trillion [US] dollars tied up in equipment. The transformation of such an immense investment, particularly in unproven technologies is a "colossal" enterprise, not entered lightly. He stresses, however, that such cost isn't sufficient excuse to delay or attempt to refute the need for it. The energy transformation must be made, partly because the world is running out of oil, and cannot afford to replace it with more severe polluters such as coal. The changeover must be undertaken, but it must be done with known technologies until the riskier ones are considered proven.

The cost of transition must also factor in the true cost of the fuels in use. The external costs of petroleum for example, are rarely calculated. Referring to a study by Joan Ogden, Roberts explains how real costs of using petrol actually make the hydrogen fuel cell a price competitive technology. Such calculations should lead to greater investment in alternative technologies. Roberts argues further that it will be the United States that will inevitably take the lead in the process, both in technology and investment. Citing changes in attitudes and policy resulting from the "Oil Embargo" of the 1970s, he suggests that these be reviewed and expanded to achieve the first steps in the transition to new energy forms. It is the US, as the greatest polluter and the greatest innovator, which must take the lead in the change. The energy purchasing power and world marketing skills of the US makes it the most likely promoter of the change. US-based technology is best suited to bringing higher energy levels to developing nations, while not condemning them to high pollution generation.

Roberts has challenged a large segment of his own population with this book. He notes that consumers are being confronted with need for change now, and they must ready themselves for it. A new age requires innovative thinking and changing some long-held views. The author wants that process to be as painless as possible. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

Most of the reviews here are by people who work directly with the subject. The reviews are either very positive or FYI negative. Paul Roberts is doing something important, informing people about a subject he thinks we should all be thinking about a great deal more. Perhaps some of the reviewers are right, perhaps there is something lacking in the book, or mistakes about certain details, and maybe they aren't. I don't see how that makes a difference anyway, when has anyone ever read something and ended it there. Any kind of research and reading should be approached critically. In my opinion this book is definitely worth reading, the history of energy use I found to be incredibly helpful. I appreciate the reviews that offer alternative reading, no use being negative if you cant suggest anything else.

However, I came at it from the perspective of a physicist who has spent 25 years involved in various sustainable energy issues, and for me the book was quite disappointing. Roberts' in-depth understanding of all the issues about which he writes is limited. As a result, there are a huge number of minor technical errors throughout the book that are at best distracting and at worst seriously misleading. For a much more detailed, accurate, and up-to-date discussion of most major aspects of energy, see "Energy at the Crossroads" by Smil, though Smil too has serious limitations on the subject of advanced renewables. Roberts' treatment of oil resources is decidedly inferior to the definitive work on petroleum resources by Campbell, "The Coming Oil Crisis". (And you don't even have to buy Campbell's book. Just go to the ASPO web site and download his last 20 newsletters.)

Roberts also does poorly when he tries to evaluate future energy options - wind, biofuels, solar, and hydrogen. Of course, it's hard to be too critical, as there has been a lot of junk science published on these subjects (much of it even coming from government sources) and Roberts is not qualified to separate the wheat from the chaff. The worst chapter by far is Chapter 3, which essentially is an advertisement for Ballard's hydrogen fuel cells. This chapter is full of garbage from start to finish, though it probably contains enough real science to fool the general reader. For a scientifically sound, expert perspective here, see "The Hype About Hydrogen" by Dr. Joe Romm or my "Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles". On this subject, Romm, Smil, and Roberts each have very different views, and here it seems clear that Romm is on the right track. (The recent study by the National Academy of Sciences is on his side, and that should mean something.)

Roberts' review of wind and solar in Chapter 13 also leaves a lot to be desired, though most of the information presented on these subjects (except when it comes to hydrogen energy storage to address intermittency) is sound. However, he gives the distinct impression in several places he's already decided to be negative toward wind energy simply because the wind turbines must be produced by big industry to be competitive. He apparently fails to appreciate that the same applies to solar and especially to fuel cells. But the biggest shortcoming in this chapter is his non-treatment of advanced biofuels - such as cellulosic ethanol, algal biodiesel, and methanol and biodiesel from waste and switchgrass.

So, I have to commend Roberts for doing a good job (for an outsider and non-expert) of presenting a lot of useful information on energy issues; but for those interested in real substance devoid of slanted hype, I'd recommend turning to the real experts, like Campbell, Romm, and Smil, who also are excellent writers. Of course, you may not want to read three long books, two of which (those by Campbell and Smil) are rather heavy. In that case, you might want to read the first third and the last quarter of "Out of Gas", by Goodstein (the central portion of his book is off topic and boring) to get a brief and scientifically sound introduction to the subject of Peak Oil. For a sound summary of future automotive fuels, I recommend "Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles". - F. David Doty, PhD, engineering physicist.