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Expectations Investing Hardcover – Sep 24 2001


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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 368 pages
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill Ryerson Agency; 1 edition (Sept. 24 2001)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1578512522
  • ISBN-13: 978-1578512522
  • Product Dimensions: 24.2 x 16.2 x 2.5 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 499 g
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #281,823 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

Product Description

From Publishers Weekly

Instead of focusing on the short term--earnings per share, price-earnings multiples--Rappaport (Creating Shareholder Value), formerly a professor at Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, and Mauboussin, chief investment strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, recommend "expectations investing," which "starts with the current stock price and uses the discounted cash-flow model to `read' what the market implies about a company's future performance." They discuss sample companies (Gateway), historical patterns, competitive strategies and share value. Though they expertly simplify a complex topic, beginners may find the book overly technical. However, the authors' credentials, a national interview campaign and author appearances should attract deserved attention. Tables.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

From the Publisher

 Offers a more practical and effective alternative for identifying value-price gaps--the key to superior returns.
 Teaches how to value stocks in the new economy, interpret current prices, and determine whether the company's managers are on track.
 Practical and teachable, like The Balanced Scorecard.
 Introduces a unique Shareholder Value Added (SVA) roadmap for tracing the process of value creation from the basic economic forces that affect a company's resulting value drivers.

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By James Lor on Nov. 29 2003
Format: Paperback
Stock market investing books usually come in two flavors.
The first group of authors tell you to look for certain price and volume patterns; that the stock price depends on those patterns because those patterns are a reflection on human behavior.
The second group of authors tell you to look for certain ratios in the financial statements; that the stock price depends on those ratios.
Then there's this book, which tells you that the price could depend on a lot of things, like mergers and acquisitions and the synergy they generate, executive compensation, competitive strategies, stock buybacks, etc. But they don't tell you how to calculate those factors into the stock price. The book is a good book which certainly provokes thought. And it's probably good for finding stocks for the long term investor. But for me, it's a little too impractical. And a little too academic intellectual guru voodoo. When I have money at risk, and I have to make quick decisions (which can affect my net worth), I like to keep things simple and easily measurable which technical and fundamental analysis allows me to do.
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Format: Hardcover
An observation by Peter L. Bernstein that the "fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future" sets up the dilemma undertood by all investors grappling with risk in pursuit of gain. This book starts with the assumption that stock prices represent the market's expectations about a company's future performance. There are "price implied expectations" (PIE) embodied in the price of a stock. Defining the "value drivers" of these expectations, understanding how they contribute to a company's success, and anticipating revisions in their assessed effectiveness for a particular company are critical steps in this investment approach. Determining the PIE for a particular stock from publicly available information involves a range of estimates and a need to understand the industry sector. What we have here is an artful process for estimating value not fail safe equations. This is a challenging book on a number of fronts: Stock prices, we are told, only "tenuously" relate to earnings growth. Rather "changes in expectations about future cash flows" are the key, and earnings and shareholder value may not move together. On the other hand, the notion that a stock price can be deconstructed to establish the expectations investors have for its future seems intuitively clear. This reader would have been more persuaded of the usefulness of this analytical approach with more case studies where the ideas are comprehensively applied. Separate chapters dealing with acquisitions, stock buybacks, and employee stock options - each of which when properly interpreted can modify an investor's expectations - are especially insightful.
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By A Customer on April 5 2002
Format: Hardcover
When I started working on Wall Street ten years ago, I thought my colleagues would be fantastic stockpickers who used intelligence, foresight, and brilliant paradigms to pick great stocks.
The last decade has taught me that most Wall Street analysts are very intelligent. However, I must report that as a whole, they have *no idea* what they're doing. I'm not sure how it happened, but most investors have come to believe in a hodge-podge of rules-of-thumb that "everyone knows" but nobody can explain. Arbitarily, "growth" investors tell us to "Buy stocks that grow their earnings faster than their P/E multiples!" Just as randomly, "value" investors tell us to "Only buy stocks with low P/E's with lots of book value!" If you try to integrate all these rules of thumbs into a single mental model, you have to make so many exceptions to every rule that your mind feels like Swiss cheese.
In contrast, this book offers a clean, intelligent FRAMEWORK for thinking about investing in anything that produces a stream of future cash flows (including stocks, of course). It's the investing Bible I wish I had when I started my career. It would have shaved years from my investing education, and saved me from numerous migraines.
The book starts with the same first principles you read in your Corporate Finance textbook, makes relevant the practical arcana you learned in Accounting class, and incorporates Porter's and other strategy frameworks into valuation. The book presents a CLEAN and FLEXIBLE way of thinking about stocks. For example, you can apply their approach to Dell from its IPO to today -- and get useful data that would help with a Buy/Sell decision.
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By Satya on April 1 2002
Format: Hardcover
"Expectations Investing" presents a powerful idea - From a company's stock price, derive what the market is expecting of the company's performance. Then, based on your own expectations, decide if the stock is a worthy investment. One might say, isn't this what investors do all the time, using multiples like P/E? The book talks about the drawback of such multiples. Then it presents a clear and elegant framework to identify the true drivers of a company's value. You need to perform a strategic analysis of the company and industry to identify the plausible ranges for these value drivers. You can see where your assumptions stand with respect to market expectations (which you reverse engineer from the stock price and consensus estimates for future performance). You assign probabilities to various outcomes based on your convictions, and decide to buy/sell.
In 195 pages, this book presents a bunch of insights. The presentation on valuing a company's stock options, as well as discussion of value capture by buyers/sellers in mergers and acquisitions, are the clearest I've seen in any finance/valuation book. The discussions on incentive compensation, as well as management signals in share buybacks, are also quite impressive and accessible to the general reader. The accompanying website for this book is highly complementary, and presents excel models for all topics covered. I adapted them for a sample company and was quite delighted! While DCF valuations are not every investor's cup of tea, this book goes the farthest in trying to make its DCF-based framework manageable by the average person.
Now for the caveats which I hope are minor - A couple of earlier chapters pack the gist of several MBA classes (corporate finance, strategy, behavioral finance).
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