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Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns Hardcover – Oct 1 2001


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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 224 pages
  • Publisher: Harvard Business Press; 1 edition (Oct. 1 2001)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1578512522
  • ISBN-13: 978-1578512522
  • Product Dimensions: 2.4 x 15.9 x 23.9 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 499 g
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #548,863 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents


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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By James Lor on Nov. 29 2003
Format: Paperback
Stock market investing books usually come in two flavors.
The first group of authors tell you to look for certain price and volume patterns; that the stock price depends on those patterns because those patterns are a reflection on human behavior.
The second group of authors tell you to look for certain ratios in the financial statements; that the stock price depends on those ratios.
Then there's this book, which tells you that the price could depend on a lot of things, like mergers and acquisitions and the synergy they generate, executive compensation, competitive strategies, stock buybacks, etc. But they don't tell you how to calculate those factors into the stock price. The book is a good book which certainly provokes thought. And it's probably good for finding stocks for the long term investor. But for me, it's a little too impractical. And a little too academic intellectual guru voodoo. When I have money at risk, and I have to make quick decisions (which can affect my net worth), I like to keep things simple and easily measurable which technical and fundamental analysis allows me to do.
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By A Customer on Sept. 2 2002
Format: Hardcover
I haven't read the book but I saw an unintentionally funny quote on the book jacket. Amongst other people praising the book and urging you to buy it, there is a quote from one Jeffrey Skilling from the Enron Corporation:
"Expectations Investing reinvents today's investment market architecture. . . . A valuable tool for the innovative investor." -Jeff Skilling, CEO, Enron Corp.
You too can become as "innovative" as Enron! Wonder if they'll remove that recommendation in reprints...
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Format: Hardcover
I used to always wonder how do investment analysts evaluate stocks.Buffett never beleived in P/E nor P/S or P/CF. Mind you [local store] never traded under P/E of 24, neither DELL nor msft.
So how do you pick these great stocks?
If a investor is reading this book, he has crossed over from Amateur investor stage to become a semi professional. Evaluate your stocks as you evaluate a business. When you buy business, you are basically looking at how much cash can I take home very month.
This is a great book.
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Format: Hardcover
An observation by Peter L. Bernstein that the "fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future" sets up the dilemma undertood by all investors grappling with risk in pursuit of gain. This book starts with the assumption that stock prices represent the market's expectations about a company's future performance. There are "price implied expectations" (PIE) embodied in the price of a stock. Defining the "value drivers" of these expectations, understanding how they contribute to a company's success, and anticipating revisions in their assessed effectiveness for a particular company are critical steps in this investment approach. Determining the PIE for a particular stock from publicly available information involves a range of estimates and a need to understand the industry sector. What we have here is an artful process for estimating value not fail safe equations. This is a challenging book on a number of fronts: Stock prices, we are told, only "tenuously" relate to earnings growth. Rather "changes in expectations about future cash flows" are the key, and earnings and shareholder value may not move together. On the other hand, the notion that a stock price can be deconstructed to establish the expectations investors have for its future seems intuitively clear. This reader would have been more persuaded of the usefulness of this analytical approach with more case studies where the ideas are comprehensively applied. Separate chapters dealing with acquisitions, stock buybacks, and employee stock options - each of which when properly interpreted can modify an investor's expectations - are especially insightful.
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By A Customer on April 5 2002
Format: Hardcover
When I started working on Wall Street ten years ago, I thought my colleagues would be fantastic stockpickers who used intelligence, foresight, and brilliant paradigms to pick great stocks.
The last decade has taught me that most Wall Street analysts are very intelligent. However, I must report that as a whole, they have *no idea* what they're doing. I'm not sure how it happened, but most investors have come to believe in a hodge-podge of rules-of-thumb that "everyone knows" but nobody can explain. Arbitarily, "growth" investors tell us to "Buy stocks that grow their earnings faster than their P/E multiples!" Just as randomly, "value" investors tell us to "Only buy stocks with low P/E's with lots of book value!" If you try to integrate all these rules of thumbs into a single mental model, you have to make so many exceptions to every rule that your mind feels like Swiss cheese.
In contrast, this book offers a clean, intelligent FRAMEWORK for thinking about investing in anything that produces a stream of future cash flows (including stocks, of course). It's the investing Bible I wish I had when I started my career. It would have shaved years from my investing education, and saved me from numerous migraines.
The book starts with the same first principles you read in your Corporate Finance textbook, makes relevant the practical arcana you learned in Accounting class, and incorporates Porter's and other strategy frameworks into valuation. The book presents a CLEAN and FLEXIBLE way of thinking about stocks. For example, you can apply their approach to Dell from its IPO to today -- and get useful data that would help with a Buy/Sell decision.
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