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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Hardcover – Oct 14 2008


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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 368 pages
  • Publisher: Random House; 2 Updated edition (Oct. 14 2008)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1400067936
  • ISBN-13: 978-1400067930
  • Product Dimensions: 24.1 x 15.9 x 3 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 612 g
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (213 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #95,746 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents


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3.9 out of 5 stars
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful By David R. Harper on Nov. 4 2003
Format: Hardcover
Taleb hammers home two or maybe three key ideas, padding them with an eclectic blend of autobiographical references and philosophical/literary yarns. When I put it down, I felt a little bit like I had just shared a brandy with a really smart guy who wanted to spend the evening talking about himself. Fortunately, it works because you get an unfettered (and not heavily filtered or re-edited) peek into a brilliant and well-read intellect. The best thing about Taleb, however in my opinion, is that he possesses that rare quality: he is an independent thinker. In fact, I view the book as having two underlying themes. One, it is a sort of a corny love letter to the massively underutilized science of statistics. I mean, the statistics discussed in the book are surprisingly basic but he reminds us that our everyday common sense doesn't really make sense. Two, it is an inspiring update of an ancient, heroic idea: that there is value to a thoughtful-even stoic-detachment in a world filled with noise and distraction.
The big ideas are simple. The usefulness of the book is that he shows you how we generally do not behave as if the simple ideas are true. The biggest idea is survivorship bias. It explains why my book reviews tend to be positive. I generally do not post a review unless I've read the entire book, and I tend to quit books that I don't like. So, my reviews are based on a sample that is infected by survivorship bias. I won't go into the other ideas (i.e., the problem of induction and "our genetic unfitness in the world") except to say that (i) the induction issue is arguably an extension of survivorship bias, so you may feel déjà vu here and (ii) the last section on the "human aspect of uncertainty" is the weakest section.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful By B. Piché on March 20 2008
Format: Paperback
Taleb's Fooled by Randomness is an interesting alternative to the large majority of financial literature. In effect, its goal is to portray the significance and the use of rationality and irrationality while dealing with markets (or any other foreseeable discipline).

Generally speaking, this book is written in a concise and understandable style with several anecdotes facilitating the reading experience. Where most of the readers will experience difficulty, however, is in the comprehension of some of the concepts presented by Taleb, as they do not always relate to every day's routine.

Drawing from works in many subjects (including biology, psychology, probability and economics), Taleb attempts to show how the human being is thoroughly incapable of dealing with random events. He discusses diverse problems related to the prediction of the market's yield, including, most notably, the problem of induction (how can one believe that summarizing past history into a model is possible, thus reducing finance to a single equation?). Also, I have found this book to be applicable in a much broader context than security analysis and risk management.

Similar books in the same category include A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by B. Malkiel, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, by P. Bernstein and Irrational Exuberance, by R. Shiller. Overall, this book seems to have been written for the author more that for anyone else, but it does contain interesting knowledge often forgotten by other authors. I was not disappointed by this book, but it has failed to exceed my expectations, thereby ranking it a ``good'' read.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on June 16 2004
Format: Hardcover
Taleb is the ideal independent (if IRREVERENT) thinker who deliver the news few want to hear (see the amusing prevalence of obsessive detractors).
His point is simple:
1) He uses logical thought experiments to show that in a random environment Warren Buffets are almost unavoidable to produce JUST BY LUCK --of course misunderstood that Warren Buffet has been lucky (the subtelty is not difficult to get).
2) If you have done poorly in life he can convince you that it may not be your fault (therapy)
3) If you have done very well in life and do not introspect you will be angry at him (he takes away from you your self-importance). The explanation are the attribution &overconfidence heuristics: people are motivated by a lack of understanding of the odds. They believe that their successes were explainavble & their failures were random. Go tell a gambler that he does not have the odds: he will be angry at you.
All that is wrapped in his idiosyncratic style. I have to say that I find his both charming and extemely arrogant. There is a deep philosophical point but it is too difficult for this.
HE did not tame his arrogance for this second edition
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By NeroTulip1961 on March 3 2013
Format: Paperback
The book is very entertaining. The author is a storyteller who makes some excellent observations about financial life and the futility of trying to look for patterns amongst the randomness. I recently reread this book after 10 years, quite frankly it makes even more sense now than ever. Trading environments like 1987, 1994, 1997 and 1998 were similar but different than 2000-2001 and 2008-2009. Be warned: Nassim is full of himself and manages to insult various ethnic groups, academics, MBAs, PhDs and dentists.
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