Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World [Hardcover]

As one of the foremost scholars and thinkers on Muslim society Vali Nasr has demonstrated his keen insight into that world. His 2007 book The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future sought to reframe the debate over the Iraq war by exploring how the Shia and Sunni divide was fueling what in essence was not only a civil war but a continuation of a long-running religious conflict. With "Forces of Fortune" Nasr has produced another work that should reshape opinions and increase understanding of the broader changes occurring in the Muslim world. Nasr asserts that the rise of a business-minded middle class is reshaping societies across the Muslim world and how the West engages this burgeoning middle class will provide the key to countering the threat from Islamic extremists and Iran. That alone represents a considerable paradigm shift from the West's longtime support of autocratic nations in the region who have failed to democratize and liberalize their economies and their societies. Nasr makes a compelling argument that the way to win over the Muslim world is to engage it over business, capitalism, and trade; not to fight it over religion.

Equally surprising is his assessment that Islamic extremism and anti-Americanism took hold in the region not because of an inevitable clash of cultures (as other scholars have asserted), but because unlike other countries and regions a middle class failed to emerge in the 19th and 20th Centuries. This is hardly surprising given the sclerosis and decline of the Ottoman Empire in the 19th Century, the exploitative effects of colonialism and the autocratic regimes that dominated the latter half of the 20th Century. But more interesting points emerge, such as what Nasr calls the "critical middle" (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and Dubai) where the emergence of an increasingly economically and politically powerful middle class is already exerting its influence. The protests in Iran over the re-election of President Ahmadinejad were driven in a large part by the emergent middle class. It was lawyers in Pakistan who played a prominent role in street demonstrations that spurred General Musharraf to stand down. Presure from Turkey's growing middle class coupled with EU pressure has forced Prime Minister Erdošan, President Gül and the AKP party to moderate their more extreme positions. This "critical middle" will hopefully motivate emulation in other Muslim countries, but the West needs to take a more active role in fostering this growth.

Nasr produces some seriously thought provoking ideas and concepts here that hopefully will be debated and argued not only in the West, but in the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" is a rather appropriate title and hopefully the opening points in a broader discussion about the future direction for both the West and the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" picks up on themes Fareed Zakaria had explored in The Post-American World, but amplifies on them considerably. Best of all Nasr's prose is easily accessible and relatable to the layman or to scholars. As an Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations Nasr certainly is one of the foremost experts on the Middle East; "Forces of Fortune" will prove he knows what he's talking about, lets just hope that people will read it and take action.

Vali Nasr is the author of another famous book, the Shia Revival. He is back with a similarly ground breaking important book. Nasr argues that the Muslim world will change in the direction of modernity only if market forces take over. That is how it happened in Medieval Europe. He argues that people adopt secular values and modern values after they enter free markets. That is an idea that is quite familiar to the West, which believes in the power of the Industrial revolution, free markets and capitalism. Nasr's argument is intriguing. In other words, rather waste so much effort in persuading Muslims to become westernized, we should encourage them to become capitalists.

Nasr argues that when Muslims join free market economies they develop vested interest in commerce and everything that commerce requires. He gives the example of how in Turkey free market forces tamed that country's fundamentalist parties to produce the current moderate Islamic democratic government. Nasr argues that free trade does not turn people into secularists, but it moderate their views. The notion that fresh ideas take hold only if people have vested interest in them is a powerful one. Why would people become moderate of secular if it did not make sense in terms of their interests? Moderation he argues is strongest if it is supported by the profit motive.

Nasr gives plenty of examples from Dubai, Iran, Arab world, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan to show two things; first Muslims are capable of functioning in the free market, and when they do that they become noticeably more moderate. This is the freshest and most novel book on the Middle East I have read in a long while. It gives a completely new perspective on understanding what is happening in the Middle East, and that is useful at a time the U.S. is still trying to figure out how to defeat extremism. To top it off it is really well-written, educational, and full of insights.

This was an easy book to read. It is full of stories and connects so many dots that are missing in the coverage of Middle East. What I found most intersting is the idea that Islamic values and how Muslims see the world can change, and how that can happen is in ways so intuitive that we have missed it. There is a lot of history and politics in this book, it is insightful and persuasive but above all it gives an Aha moment. It makes you think we are not on the right track right now. If we want to deal with extremism and fundamentalism we have to focus on economics and business. Nasr says that will chnage Islam and the Middle East.

I come from Iran and saw the summer demonstrations first hand. Nasr explains what is happening in Iran very well. The discussion on Iran is definitely worth it. I think everyone shoudl read this book.

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