Future Evolution: An Illuminated History of Life to Come [Hardcover]

Ward's starts by describing the mass extinctions that ended the Permian and
Cretaceous periods and then discusses the evidence that we are currently in the middle of a mass extinction of our own devising. He points out similarities and
differences between the past and present mass extinctions and comes to the conclusion that there will be no new blooming of the tree of life in the future, as
there was after the the Permian and Cretaceous mass extinctions. He argues that
humans have fundementally altered the channels that are available to evolution
and that humans will dominate the Earth's ecology until we go extinct. This is a reasonable assumption. After all, it is very unlikely that we will ever allow a species
to evolve that represents a thread to us, such as a large predator.

Peter Ward's more contraversial assumption is that humans are immune to extinction. He argues that we have enough control over our environment that
only a planet-wide disaster such as a large asteroid impact, or wide-spread trap
vulcanism can pose a serious threat to our survival. This assumption that humans
will be around for as long as there in as Earth is the bedrock that the rest of his
predictions for the future of evolution are based upon.

Future Evolution is an interesting and thought provoking book, even if you
disagree with some of the assumptions that the authorr makes. My main reason
for only giving it a medium rating is that the book was choppy and parts of it
felt rushed. For example, I would have preferred to have been given more detail on the similarities and differences between the present and past mass extinctions.
I would also have liked to see Mr Ward explore more scenarios for the future.
All in all I recommend this book, not as a description of what the future will be
like, but as a starting point for pondering what the future may hold for the Earth
and its ecosystem.

The author is a colorful writer who is able to capture the concepts of scientific data in brilliant word-pictures for the non-scientist. He also brings his work and that of others into focus by reflecting on his own experiences in the field, which for those who enjoy adventure stories might well capture the imagination. One of the most poignant stories is that of the death of a close friend during a diving accident (p. 171).

Like many in the scientific community Ward is inclined to see the impacts of human activity on the planet as posing a major and irreversible threat to the continued existence of much of the biota with which we share the planet. Unlike others, however, he believes that much of the worst damage has already been done, namely the demise of the mega fauna of the glacial and post-glacial world and the introduction of domestic cultivars into the floral domain. As a paleontologist he is aware that after each major extinction event in the past, whether a broad spectrum or a narrower one, it takes almost 10 million years for the world's living community to recover. Even if our species lives the usual two million years, it will not live to see that recovery, which is a sobering fact.

While he, like one of my former professors, believes that the human species is almost extinction resistant--barring another asteroid impact like that which put "paid" to the dinosaur--he does believe that the world that our descendants inherit will be vastly different from the one bequeathed to us by our ancestors. He would look to the "weeds" of the living world for the future radiation into vacated niches, animals like rats, insects, and snakes, and plants like the dandelion. He also believes that domesticated animals may give rise to new species.

In the last chapters Ward also gives some thought to the fate of our own species, examining what he calls "unnatural selection." He discusses the apparent increase in behavior disorders in modern society, the possibility of artificial genetic modification of the species, the possibility of merging with machines, the possibility that machines will actually be our only "descendants," the possibility that we will be reduced by an asteroid impact, by nuclear war, or by catastrophic climate change.

A very imaginative book.