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11 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
A New Way to Buy Low and Sell Annually, July 15 2006
This review is from: The Little Book That Beats the Market (Hardcover)
Ever since computer databases have become more available and computing time and memory have been cheap, anyone can take investment history and devise a "back-tested" solution that would have made you a fortune.
I don't recall any version of such a scheme that ever held up for long when it was then used to make investments going forward. Why? Conditions change.
Mr. Greenblatt's approach uses a 17 year history during one of the strongest bull markets in American investing history to come up with his approach. Will this approach work during a flat or declining market? Who knows?
Mr. Greenblatt argues (unpersuasively to my mind) that his approach will continue to work because the method fails to work very consistently over periods of less than three years. That will discourage anyone from using it for very long.
The approach is summarized on pages 134 and 135. Basically, you go to his Web site (www.magicformulainvesting.com) and use the data there to pick companies with a low price relative to buy 20-30 stocks over the next year (a few every 3 months). You sell each one a day or so after a year has passed (to get capital gains treatment), and replace it with another stock. You pick a minimum size market cap (he suggests at least $50 million), and you select from among the stocks for companies which traded at the lowest multiple of EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) which had the highest ration of EBIT to the sum of net working capital plus net fixed assets in the prior 12 months. The Web site does this for you now for free.
Here is another practical problem with the book. You need to have quite a lot of money to start with or trading fees will eat up your capital. Let's say you have $10,000 to start. You will be making 60 trades a year to buy and sell 30 stocks. Assuming you pay on-line commission rates of $10 a trade, that's $600 gone to start. If you pay more for trading the problem is worse. So to be efficient, you will probably have to be able to commit at least $25,000. More is better.
I would have been more impressed if the approach (which is a variation on value investing) had included a search for global value. The U.S. stock market is much more expensive now than many other markets. A bargain in an over-priced market may not be such a bargain after all.
Mr. Greenblatt does have a nice way of explaining his ideas. Any teenager could follow this book. I suggest that the book's best use is in introducing teenagers to the idea that Mr. Market is way too volatile in setting "correct" prices, and you can take advantage of that by buying low. Then hand your teenager a copy of The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham to understand how you can find bargains. If that approach seems too complex for your teenager, provide next a copy of John Bogle's Commonsense on Mutual Funds.
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9 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Great book for regular people, April 20 2006
This review is from: The Little Book That Beats the Market (Hardcover)
I never thought that I would recommend a stock market investment strategy to anyone, until I read this book. This is a short, simple book for: 1. Regular people who don't understand investment principles, and who really couldn't care less. They just want a simple system that gives great returns (around double the market!) 2. People who enjoy investing in the stock market themselves, but don't have the time to do all the research required to find great companies. 3. Investors who don't have a system that regularly beats the market by a significant margin. This investment strategy is NOT for: 1. People with no discipline. You must believe in the system and stick to it for at least five years, no matter what happens in order to see results. 2. People with less than $60000 to invest. Performing 60 trades a year is not cheap, even with discount brokerages. You will be spending at least $600 just on fees every year. Although the formula is simple enough for a child to follow, it just isn't worth it unless you have enough money. 3. Investors that enjoy spending thousands of hours analysing businesses and already have a system that works just as well. In response to the critics (mostly on Amazon.com): 1. This system will work anywhere in the world, including Canada. You do not have to do all the rankings manually. The author gives clear instructions on how to apply the formula using readily-available stock screens that charge nothing or a nominal fee. 2. As a foreigner, you can invest in the U.S., so don't say that this book isn't worth anything to those living outside the U.S. 3. Some stocks are losers. Just because the formula selected them to buy doesn't guarantee that they will be winners. That's why you have 30 stocks at a time. 4. Yes, you can get better returns by knowing how to analyze the stocks chosen, but that doesn't mean that if you don't know how to do this that you will end up losing. On the contrary, this formula has proven itself without any further analysis to make the final decisions about which stocks to include. 5. This formula will work even if everyone knows about it because most people won't follow it (not enough discipline), don't have enough money to start (and will have forgotten about it by the time they do), think they can do better (which may or may not be true) or have too much money to invest in the small caps where most deals are found (ie. institutional investors). So don't worry about the stocks prices being driven up just because they're at the top of the author's list to buy. 6. The author wrote this book for his kids, hence all the little anecdotes, and use of humor. I personally found it entertaining as well as informative. Yes, all his points could have been said in a few pages, but fewer people would have read it, and definitely wouldn't have understood it. Even if you aren't in a position to take advantage of this investment formula now, this book is still a great read and will help you to understand how the stock market works and the principles behind finding good investments.
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5 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Great Book - Don't Waste Your Time if You Live outside US, Mar 5 2006
By A Customer
This review is from: The Little Book That Beats the Market (Hardcover)
The book is pretty basic a the beginning but once you start to learn about the formula it gets interesting. The Magic Formula the Greenblatt speaks about is great and definitely a proven formula in the US. His website calculates all US stocks to give you a list of target stocks. But forget it if you live outside the US. It is impossible to find a tool that will calculate the numbers for you in Canada. Unless you are interested in manually calculating the formula for every stock on the TSX it is not worth the read.
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