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Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics [Paperback]

Will Bonner , Lila Rajiva
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
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Book Description

Aug 24 2009 Agora Series (Book 15)

An insightful look at how to succeed by going against the crowd

Collectively, people think and act in ways that are different from how they think and act as individuals. Understanding these differences, says William (Bill) Bonner-a longtime maverick observer of the financial world and the vagaries of the investing public-is vital to preserving your wealth and personal dignity. From the witch-hunts of the early modern world to the war on terror, from dot-com mania to the real estate bubble, people have always been caught up in frauds, conceits, and wild guesses-often with devastating results. In Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets, Bonner and coauthor Lila Rajiva show groupthink at work in an improbable array of instances throughout history and reveal why swimming against the current pays.

  • Shares the deeper secrets of investing and pushes you to question what this means for your financial well-being
  • Explains why people so often abandon good sense and good behavior to "follow the crowd"
  • Offers concrete advice on how you can avoid the "public spectacle" of modern finance

The authors' cautionary tale of bubble economies reveals how the gush of credit let loose by Alan Greenspan has wreaked havoc on our lives-but their thoughtful and always entertaining approach also offers some sound investing principles for avoiding the pitfalls of the public spectacle, thinking for yourself, and protecting your money, your sanity, and your soul.



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Review

.,."extremely timely...irreverent but thought-provoking examination of the goings on in international finance today... packs a serious punch." ("The Independent")

"To say that this book is skeptical or contrarian is like saying Warren Buffett has money....entertaining criticism of anything and everything...I read the full 400 pages in just a few days.."-Rob May at "Business Pundit (Top 10 business site) http: //www.businesspundit.com/50226711/mobs_messiahs_and_markets.php"(Nov. 2007)

.,."the recent market instability stemming out of subprime woes makes this book extremely timely." ("Gulf Business," February 2008)

""Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets" by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva is a fascinating work....downright hilarious...a serious look at an important phenomenon in the human condition."- Dr. Jonathan Dolhenty of the highly rated philosophy site, Radical Academy (Oct. 2007)

"a sharp-witted jaunt through the mass hysteria that's defined markets and people through the ages" -Money Week (Sept. 2007)

"William Bonner and Lila Rajiva provide the answers in this exhilarating -- if somewhat depressing -- book. Although their insights will often make readers laugh out loud, they will also find themselves wriggling uncomfortably at the manifold idiocies of human behaviour." -The National Post, Canada (Nov. 07)

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay would be a better choice to begin. Without that context for this book, you'll find yourself gobbling caviar without knowing what it is." - Donald Mitchell, author of The 2000 Percent Solution, December 18, 2007

"A fascinating book," - Alan Caruba in Book Views, December, 2007

"Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets is a tragi-comedy, full of sharp observations, delivered with equally sharp wit. This book's dark and disturbing revelations could leave one depressed and disillusioned, were it not so damn funny." -- Adam Bergen at Blog Critics, December 31, 2007

From the Inside Flap

Collectively, people think and act in ways that are different from how they think and act as individuals. Understanding these differences, says William (Bill) Bonner—a longtime maverick observer of the financial world and the vagaries of the investing public—is vital to preserving your wealth and personal dignity. From the witch hunts of the early modern world to the war on terror, from the dot-com mania to the real estate bubble, people have always been caught up in frauds, conceits, and wild guesses—often with devastating results. In Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets, Bonner and coauthor Lila Rajiva show groupthink at work in an improbable array of instances throughout history and reveal why swimming against the current pays. They explain why people so often abandon good sense and good behavior to "follow the crowd" and show you how to avoid getting caught up in the public spectacles around you.

If an investor merely recognizes the way mob sentiment works, the authors point out, he is far ahead of most others. Ordinary people, for example, turn over billions of dollars' worth of their hard-earned money to brokers and mutual fund managers every day—immediate, tangible, personal money—believing that strangers will give them back even more. Whatever would make them think so?

Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets demonstrates that investors are in fact caught between a rock and a soft place—between the private world they can understand and master and the misleading public spectacle of the markets. "The further away you get from your investments, and the less you suffer the consequences if they go bad, the worse your performance will be," say Bonner and Rajiva. "That's why 'collective' investments like index-linked funds,mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance funds, and pension funds are usually so bad. The investors are too far from the facts—and the managers are too far from the consequences."

The authors' cautionary tale of the current bubble economy warns that the gush of credit let loose by Alan Greenspan is fraught with perils for the unwary—but their thoughtful and always entertaining approach also offers some sound investing principles for avoiding the pitfalls of the public spectacle, thinking for yourself, and protecting your money, your sanity, and your soul. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.


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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Moments of brilliance Oct 19 2007
By PK
Format:Hardcover
I will state my biases outright: I have been a big fan of Bill Bonner for a while. I have found his libertarian approach to the markets, history, politics and philosophy to be enlightening. After falling in love with his last book "Empire of Debt" I awaited the release of this book like Xmas morning. However this work fell just a tad short of my expectations.

No one can dispute Bonner's command of history and the facts. The man is an intellectual powerhouse. At times however he writes as if this is a blog, and you end up asking yourself what the point was or how it ties into the overall thesis. Other moments felt as if I was back in a university lecture where Johnny PhD went rambling off on some esoteric topic and lost 95% of the class.

A huge plus is his understanding of behavioural finance and evolutionary psychology which he ties magically into his criticisms of our species and theories of the markets. This is the book's biggest strength, pointing out our fundamental and intrinsic defects that make EMH (efficient markets hypothesis) a fairy tale.

Those aspiring or current portfolio managers will find little pragmatic advice in this book. Some of Bonner's conclusions you have heard a million times if you read The Daily Reckoning: buy gold, we are in a commodities bullmarket, don't buy high P/Es... His analysis on some of these issues is often shallow (for instance when he discusses the growth of credit derivatives) but that is not the strength of the work. If he ran a portfolio no doubt the man would be an underperforming machine over the last few years.

I really thing Bonner needs Addison Wiggin around to keep him on track. I think I counted 3 separate occasions where Bonner UNLOADED on Thomas Friedman; they are the antithesis of each other and you can sometimes understand Bonner's frustration. However, it felt as if he was sapping his own credibility during some of these relentless attacks (not that they weren't funny!) You can tell he dominates the discourse in this book; when Lila Rijiva has her chance to speak out or pipe in with an anecdote it is almost awkward.

Despite these failings this is an engaging and informative contrarian approach that will at least have you questioning some fundamental beliefs: about history, the markets, and our Western society in general. And what could be more valuable than that?
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
By Donald Mitchell #1 HALL OF FAME TOP 10 REVIEWER
Format:Hardcover
A quote you'll often read is that history is written by the victors. Many people think that observation is limited to histories of battles and wars. But the same can be said of those who win political and appointed offices, CEOs, and write the daily stories in the press. These victors are almost always impressed with themselves and what just happened while failing to cast any perspective on what might actually be going on. Others hear the same story so often they don't even bother to notice that contrary evidence to the common delusion is all around them. William Bonner and Lila Rajiva are deeply skeptical of the consensus and provide lots of evidence to the contrary. The book's main weakness is that sometimes their evidence is too superficial to capture the underlying causes of what they describe.

What are some of the key lessons the book develops?

1. World improvers using force and funds can do a lot more harm than good. Was invading Iraq to eliminate weapons of mass destruction really necessary?

2. People would rather treat an issue through a story someone tells them rather than think matters through. A failed leader may tell an untrue success story so often that everyone comes to remember only the story, rather than what the leader accomplished.

3. People can easily become fearful of something that's not happening. Witness the political success in the U.S. of "fighting terrorism" when there have been no significant domestic events of this since early 2002.

4. The authors argue that democracy isn't so good for economic growth. I found this analysis incomplete because it failed to separate out the effects of lender-mandated "reforms" by the World Bank and IMF that created depressions in most new democracies in the last few decades.

5. Out of hysteria bred by publicity can come actual harm to the accused. The original witch hunts and the more recent convictions of child care workers based on the "aided" testimony of five-year-olds are cited as evidence.

6. Wars are always associated with false reports of atrocities that no one bothers to question.

7. Many countries enter wars when they would have accomplished more by not doing so (such as the United States in World War I).

8. Most "heroes" were actually bumblers. Che Guevara and Alan Greenspan are cited as examples of the left and right.

9. Booms are rarely created by top-down efforts of governments. True improvements come from the efforts of people working independent of governments.

10. Investors discount unlikely events, underestimating their potential occurrence and impact.

11. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been sponsoring one bubble after another around the world by inflating the U.S. currency in circulation in conjunction with the Japanese Central Bank by offering bargain basement interest rates to borrowers who want to buy into the bubbles.

12. Almost all markets are over priced right now, but investors are unconcerned as they march to the edge of the cliff.

13. To make money in investments, don't do what others do . . . and don't look for problems where there are none.

14. If you decide to sit out the housing and financial markets, gold is a safer bet than money market funds or short-term bonds.

15. Use a historical perspective over a couple of cycles of up and down to see where the markets are at any given time.

Some will find the book maddening because it's oblique in making its points. Others will be charmed by the stories and thought-provoking historical examples.

I suggest that this not be your first book on manias. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay would be a better choice to begin. Without that context for this book, you'll find yourself gobbling caviar without knowing what it is . . . and you may not like the taste without preparation.

Question all popular beliefs and political statements!
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5.0 out of 5 stars A Fantastic Book! Sep 14 2009
By Patrick Sullivan TOP 100 REVIEWER
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Mobs, Messiahs, And Markets, covers so many areas. The madness of crowds, human nature, market bubbles, global trade, paper money, the gold standard, and many other topics are discussed. Anyone that enjoys reading about market history, and economic history, will love this book. Anyone that is looking to understand the current economic and political environment, will be impressed with this book.
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