Out Of Gas [Hardcover]

While the general physics presented is at least 99% correct and the energy-related data and projections are also generally sound, the book is not without technical problems. First of all, Goodstein completely dismisses, without justification, all biofuels as having negative value. He is clearly unaware that the most recent USDA studies show grain ethanol to permit energy balance up to 1.77, cellulosic ethanol well above 2.2, and other advanced biofuel options ultimately above 3. Surprisingly, his view of wind energy is only slightly less pessimistic than his view of biofuels.

The other major problems center around the nuclear issue. He seems to believe the global uranium reserves are sufficient to supply all the world's energy for up to 25 years. Quite to the contrary, the IAEA indicates the total global uranium reserves (5 million tones) of usable quality are sufficient to sustain only existing nuclear power plants (which furnish less than 20% of the world's electricity), with a 2% annual growth rate, only through 2040. Others believe the usable uranium resources are 30% smaller, and processing the low-grade reserves (hard ores with U content below 0.02%) would be too expensive and result in too much CO2 release. Goodstein also trivializes the problems of developing successful breeder and fusion reactors; and he, like many, suffers from the hydrogen hype syndrome. For a more informed perspective on this subject, see my "Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles" or "The Hype About Hydrogen" by Romm. For a much more detailed and up-to-date discussion of all major aspects of energy, see "Energy at the Crossroads" by Smil.

The heavy sprinkling of anecdotes from the history of science helps to keep "Out of Gas" interesting, but Goodstein's infatuation with the archaic Stirling engine just accentuates his lack of appreciation for modern engines, power cycles, and engineering in general. The book's success has no doubt in large part been due simply to the coincidence of its release with the rapid rise in the price of gas. Possibly because the book was largely written before the price of oil and gas shot up, it doesn't take a very strong position predicting that Peak Oil may occur within a few years. For the most authoritative treatment of the Peak Oil issue, see "The Coming Oil Crisis" by Campbell. - F. David Doty, engineering physicist.

In the 1980s, a group of Stanford scientists modeled the supply/demand of oil for 1997. They predicted around $80/barrel when in fact oil was under $20/barrel. Goostein's predictions will prove about as accurate. 2 stars for content discussing the natural science aspects.