This classic introduces the concepts and uses of probability theory. It demonstrates, without the use of higher mathematics, the application of probability to games of chance, physics, reliability of witnesses, astronomy, insurance, democratic government, and many other areas. It also shows how scientists can express complex ideas in simple terms.
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
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Most helpful customer reviews
Format:Paperback
This nontechnical writing is quite different from others. There are mathematical formulas, but they are expressed in words, without symbols. The interesting is that Laplace motivates the use of probability theory with exemples of all branches of human knowledge. More than this, he argue that the entire system of human knowledge is conected with that theory, because most important problems of human life are problems in probability. This book is an opportunity to read an original and historical "introduction" to Laplace's work on probability theory.
By A Customer
Format:Paperback
I recommend this book to people with a science background that want a little light reading. This will probably not be very appealing to the layman.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
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5.0 out of 5 stars
2 reviews
19 of 19 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars
Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation
Aug 13 2009
By Peter Norvig
- Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
This is an awesome book. It is hard to believe Laplace wrote this in 1816; it seems so modern. If you've ever worked on problems like "take two urns, A and B, the first containing four
white and two black balls ..." you'll be interested to know these problems all go back to this book. Laplace said "Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation", and he shows it here. I like the discussion of how many judges should be assigned to a case, and what proportion of them should be required to vote guilty for a guilty verdict to be returned. Laplace shows how to minimize expected loss on this problem (although he, somewhat unrealistically, assumes that each judge's opinion is independent of the others).
white and two black balls ..." you'll be interested to know these problems all go back to this book. Laplace said "Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation", and he shows it here. I like the discussion of how many judges should be assigned to a case, and what proportion of them should be required to vote guilty for a guilty verdict to be returned. Laplace shows how to minimize expected loss on this problem (although he, somewhat unrealistically, assumes that each judge's opinion is independent of the others).
16 of 33 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars
Interesting book, but not for everyone
April 1 2000
By A Customer
- Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
I recommend this book to people with a science background that want a little light reading. This will probably not be very appealing to the layman.
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