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Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century [Paperback]

Eric Kaufmann

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Book Description

April 19 2011
Dawkins and Hitchens have convinced many western intellectuals that secularism is the way forward. But most people don't read their books before deciding whether to be religious. Instead, they inherit their faith from their parents, who often innoculate them against the elegant arguments of secularists. And what no one has noticed is that far from declining, the religious are expanding their share of the population: in fact, the more religious people are, the more children they have. The cumulative effect of immigration from religious countries, and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West. Not only will the religious eventually triumph over the non-religious, but it is those who are the most extreme in their beliefs who have the largest families.

Within Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counterparts by mid-century. Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world, and their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel. Based on a wealth of demographic research, considering questions of multiculturalism and terrorism, Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises - and what this means for the future of western modernity.

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Product Details

  • Paperback: 320 pages
  • Publisher: Profile Books (April 19 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1846681448
  • ISBN-13: 978-1846681448
  • Product Dimensions: 23.6 x 15.3 x 2.7 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 522 g
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #508,699 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Product Description

Review


"Brilliant and provocative. . . .A book every liberal should read."—John Gray

"Kaufmann is controversial, highly informative, and thought provoking. A not-to-be-missed contribution to one of the most pressing and complex debates of modern time."—Morning Star

About the Author

Eric Kaufmann, an American academic, is currently Reader in Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London. In 2008-9, he was a Fellow at the Belfer Center, Harvard University. He is a frequent contributor to Prospect and other publications.

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Amazon.com: 4.7 out of 5 stars  11 reviews
23 of 23 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Astonishing April 7 2010
By Dr. Michael Blume - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
Studying the (on average) higher fertility of religious populations from an evolutionary perspective for some years, I have been somewhat sceptical about applying such observations in the contemporary field of political analysis. But Eric Kaufmann did the job. Making clear his own, rather secular position, he is nevertheless avoiding biasses or polemics, but is informing the reader. He does this by patiently combining available demographic data, historical descriptions and case studies on a wide range of populations as i.e. Haredim Jews in Israel, Mormons in the US, strong Calvinists in the Netherlands, Salafist movements in the Muslim world and many more. Although he is discussing projections and problems, Kaufmann doesn't fall into the trap of mindless alarmism, carefully weighing further options for secular und moderate religious movements, too. Although my interest started from the purely empirical side, I began to like the book for its political and philosophic clout in presenting tough questions and tentatively probing for new answers. For almost any reader, this will be a captivating and thought-provoking read and for scientists from different fields a chance to discuss, test and revise or expand sound observations and hypotheses.
18 of 19 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Does the future belong to those who are having the most children now? April 4 2010
By Shalom Freedman - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
The fundamental thesis of this book is that the religious are going to inherit the earth. The secular liberal democratic societies now tolerate fundamentalism in their midst. The secular liberal democratic populations are at less than replacement level. As opposed to them the closed religious groups are multiplying at very rapid rates with five and more children per family. This work studies the populations of Israel, the United States and Europe.
It contends that the Haredim in Israel ( The ultra-orthodox religious population) will be a majority in 2050. It contends that extremist religious groups in the United States, such as the Amish and Mormons will be a far larger share of the total population than they are now. This is happening as America is according to the author going through a delayed secularization process which is making a larger percentage of its population more secular than before. The author also deals with the growing insular Islamic population in Europe though he seems not to sympathize with the claims of Melanie Phillips, Bruce Bawer, Mark Steyn and others about this population converting the continent into Eurabia.
Is he right?Is the world moving to having a larger percentage of 'too true believers'?
Of all the societies studied I know most about what is going on in Israel. It is correct to say that the ultra- orthodox are a rapidly increasing population. I am not sure however it is right to say that their growth will continue at the present pace, that other groups including the more moderate Orthodox, will not work to maintain their own positions in the society. Israel which has been a society desiring immigration may too be able to increase its secular population that way, though at the moment this looks unlikely.
So I cannot really judge the validity of the overall thesis. What I can say is that this is a very interesting and thought - provoking work, one which should be read by all those interested in the overall condition of humanity.
12 of 12 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars What the younger may live to see April 4 2011
By Lance Eccles - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
The idea that secularists have few or no children, that the religious have lots of children, and that this will lead to a lessening of the influence of secularism, had occurred to me from time to time, especially with regard to Europe. I am grateful to Eric Kaufmann for clothing this idea with facts and figures, and producing a very thought-provoking, as well as readable, book. The author's assertions and conclusions, especially in his last chapter, will give rise to dispute, but they cannot be ignored.

The question in the title, "Shall the religious inherit the earth?", is answered in the book's final sentence: "The religious shall inherit the earth."

I tried to figure out the author's personal religious viewpoint, and I came to feel that he believes in the possibility of a God of some sort; but he is basically a secularist, with the standard secularist outlook on such things as abortion and gay rights, and even global warming. This means that he cannot be accused of promoting a piece of religious propaganda - in fact, he seems distressed by his conclusions.

His principal focus is on three areas: the religious right in the US, fundamentalist Islam, and ultra-orthodox Judaism. This last area is particularly fascinating and contains much that those outside the Jewish world will be unfamiliar with.

There is surprisingly little mention of Catholicism, and in fact he seems to make an error regarding the Catholic Church. On page 23 he says, referring to Vatican II, that it "helped bring Church policy on contraception and birth control into line with the liberal practice of many modern Catholics...". This is completely wrong. Has he never heard of Paul VI's encyclical Humanae vitae, which caused such an uproar?

He mentions (page 94) the American patriarchal movement, Quiverfull, and quoting the work of the journalist Kathryn Joyce, says that Quiverfull rejects even the rhythm method of birth control. But does anyone still use the rhythm method? As I understand, the Billings method has long ago overtaken the rhythm method as a far more reliable technique of natural birth control.

Secularists ought to read the book to gain some idea of what may be coming. If they are older they will not live to see it come to fruition, but if they are younger, they very well may. Nevertheless, it is worth bearing in mind that history contains many sudden and unforeseen changes in direction.
5 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Let me see...secularists at 1.64...atheists at .85...so.... Feb. 3 2012
By Jeri Nevermind - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
This books is chock full of bad news for secularists, atheists, and liberals in general.

Their days are numbered.

There is little future in general for secularists; Kaufman points out that they "have a low fertility rate 1.64" (p 92) while the religious marry and have children.

The news is even worse for those who claim to be atheists, whose reproduction rate may be the lowest in the world, at .85. From the statistics, atheists have no future at all (according to the research children tend to take on the beliefs of their parents).

In Europe, statistics bear out that the religiously devout reproduce, while the nonreligious are, apparently, more interested in making sure their lives are full of pleasure instead of full of diapers and toys. "Today, evangelicals, Pentecostalists and charismatics make up more than 8 percent of the European population, twice as numerous as Muslims, and they are increasing at the same rate," (p 159).

Statistics also bear out that "those without children tend to leave church as they enter adulthood, but those with children remain in the pews" (p 163).

This situation is starkest in Israel, where the religious Haredim will eventually overwhelm the secularist Jews.

This was an eye opening book. Anyone interested in the subject will also want to read Goldman's "How Civilizations Die" which covers the demographic decline world wide, including the Muslim and less developed areas.

Here is a snip from my review of that book: The ancient world clearly suffered from shocking population declines, which many have argued caused their eventual ruin. Sparta according to Aristotle "'sank under a single defeat: the want of men was their ruin'" (p 120) since their original population of 10,000 had fallen to 1,000.

Female infanticide was common. Archaeologists found that a survey of 79 families in Miletus there were "188 sons but only 28 daughters...Another survey at Eretria...reports that only one of twelve families had two sons, and almost none had two daughters" (p 130).

Without women, and without children, how could their civilization continue?

And, of course, famously, the emperor Augustus tried to force the elite to marry and bear children, another sign of a similar problem for Rome.

For a while, perhaps, the new rich from other countries could repopulate the elite. But as Mommsen wrote about Rome, "'Celibacy and childlessness became more and more common, especially among the upper classes'" (p 132).

Christianity, as Judaism had before it, insisted that infanticide was a grave moral evil, and forbade abortion and contraception. Perhaps it is no wonder that Christianity eventually took over the empire.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars The Sword of Damocles is hanging over our heads... April 3 2013
By dragon711 - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
This book was timely and entirely on point. Kaufmann's thesis is that the low fertility rate of seculars, atheists and liberals and the immigration of more religious people to the West will reshape the West- and the world- in a religious image. Yet it's more complex than that; the showdown between fundamentalism and secularism is tearing moderate religion to shreds and causing a strange kind of ecumenism in which denomination matters little, and religious people of all sorts will have more in common with each other than secular people of all sorts. The ultimate sorting-out will be between those who accept the Enlightenment's worldview and those who reject it.

Kaufmann's master-stroke is when he proves that fundamentalism, despite claiming an ancient provenance in many cultures, is itself a creature of modernity. 21st-century fundamentalists use modern technologies to prop up the boundaries between their world and a secular world seen as profane, creating their own shopping malls, schools, beaches, media, etc. As a somewhat religious person myself, I was glad Kaufmann didn't turn the work into an outright demonization of religion. He notes that religions help people with group cooperation, that secular ideologies just don't have the same appeal or staying power, that a secular world would not necessarily be more peaceful than a religious one, and that it might actually be societally useful if the decadence, selfishness and laissez-faire morality of current Western civilization were curbed by a revitalized religious tradition.

He is unflinching in pinpointing the role of Islam in global conflict. His historical insights into the rise of extreme Islam are very insightful vis-a-vis the failure of postcolonial secular nationalism in much of the developing world, the role that Saudi oil money plays in prodding global Muslim populations to adopt Saudi-style Islam, and the fact that Western governments often supported fundamentalist-Muslim regimes as a counterpoint to their fear of Communism and the Soviets during the Cold War. We bet on the wrong horse when we did that, to put it mildly. I often wonder how things might have turned out if we hadn't backed fundamentalists; during Soviet rule Afghan women had unprecedented educational and social mobility.

Anyway, he covers a variety of ethnic groups. I have seen many of the social phenomena he is describing. I have seen the young Orthodox Jews admonishing their secular elders, and the young Muslim girls donning headscarves while chiding their mothers. His commentary is astute and the book is worth a read just for noting the progress of human cultural evolution, which is not nearly so linear and tidy as we Westerners often suppose. Kaufmann's research is well-done and not apocalyptically gloomy in its conclusions, since he notes that different ethnic groups have different behaviors, everyone is intermarrying, and the demographic wheel is still in spin. But it's worth a read.

P.S. As a Catholic by heritage, I wanted more on Catholicism! He had great historical perspective on the higher birthrate of Catholic immigrants, Catholicism's relationship to ethnic nationalism in many countries, early American anti-Catholic sentiment, Vatican II and the secularization of 1960s American Catholics.. but what about more modern developments in Catholicism? That's my only quibble with the book, really. Where are my people? LOL.
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