The Age Curve: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm [Hardcover]

Have you ever gone to a movie because it had a really funny trailer - but been disappointed after viewing the entire film? You feel ripped off because all the good parts were shown in that three minute preview and now you'll never get that two hours of your life back. That's how I felt after reading The Age Curve.

I visited Kenneth Gronbach's website before purchasing his book. He had some interesting things to say so I bought the book. Don't make the same mistake I did: all the worthwhile info is on his website / blog.

Out of 241 pages he has only a few dozen pages worth of good material (evidenced by the larger-than-average font size IMHO). The book is also very repetitive - something I could forgive if it weren't for other glaring problems.

Okay, here is his thesis in a nutshell: the US population we call Gen X doesn't consume as much because there are fewer of them (roughly 9 Xers for every 10 Boomers). This causes beer sales, motorcycle sales, home sales, etc to decline. Things will stay in decline until Gen Y is old enough to start buying homes, cars, etc.

So what does Gronbach suggest? Retailers should write off the Gen Xers entirely. Ignore 69 million people approaching their prime spending years and prepare for the Gen Y gravy train. What idiocy. Besides, what's a struggling retailer to do for the next five to ten years while Gen Y slugs through college and their 20-something poverty years? Gronbach has been consulting with big corporations for too long.

To make matters worse: Gronbach doesn't give any worthwhile suggestions for how to market to Gen Y. He spends page after page hammering into the readers head that we must market to Gen Y and then has little "how to" advice.

I DID read the whole book; however, I almost had to put it down after reading Gronbach's description of how (due to high unemployment) Gen Y will take jobs now held by immigrant labor. He says, "once again a blonde-haired blue-eyed girl will take your order at a fast-food restaurant." Ha! This guy needs to visit Southern California. I've met those blonde teenagers and I've gone to those fast food joints. This guy is a few tacos short of a value meal.

While Gronbach's basic premise is sound:

#1 If your primary customer is between the ages of 30-45 (a Gen-Xer) reduce your short-term sales goals. Gen X will never consume at the rate the boomers did. There aren't enough of them.

#2 Make plans for how and when you'll target Gen Y.

... and you can get this info from his blog. Save yourself three hours of reading.

Full disclosure: I'm 29 years old. Depending on how you slice it, I'm either the first part of Gen Y or I'm the tail end of Gen X. My degree is in marketing and my job is small-business consulting with a focus on online marketing.

No, really, it is.

When I come across a book, speaker, slideshow or tv show that takes a complicated or mundane topic and explains it as clearly as Ken Gronbach has explained the essence of demographic transitions in "The Age Curve," I applaud the author. When the writing is not only clear and concise but also entertaining, I stand up and cheer.

Gronbach uses stories from his years of experience in the advertising and marketing business to explain what is important about basic data like how many babies were born in which years during the last century or so in the USA. Instead of being an actuary's idea of a boring meeting (no offense to actuaries!) it is a lively and humorous read, with lots of slap-your-forhead, "well, DUH!" moments. With real-life applications like blue-jean and motorcycle sales, stories about leftovers at the dinner table, and discussion of current events like immigration and China, Gronbach makes what some consider a dry topic into something you'll talk about at cocktail parties, with your spouse as you plan your future together, and, perhaps most importantly, at the conference table with your business associates.

After reading this book, you will start to see every issue that attracts or confounds you differently. You will analyze every business challenge, measure every political argument, and make every investment decision from a new perspective. And whenever you run into some executive making a lame excuse about not being able to predict the future and how it might affect stockholders, you will want to slap them with a copy of this book.

This book is a 250-page "a-ha moment." I recommend it to everyone who thinks or cares about the future of our culture, and who wonders why big businesses sometime run aground on issues that seem later to have been completely predictable.

Want bonus points? Hire Gronbach to speak to your business or trade group -- he's a great presenter with a show that will keep you awake -- even after a big lunch!

This book is an easy-to-understand guide to population trends that will affect every organization. I work with faith-based nonprofits and I have seen them so focused on reaching the 24-40 Gen-X segment, they miss the basic fact that that generational cohort is much smaller than people think.

The infrastructure (and mind-set) of the nation's largest faith groups and faith-based nonprofits are fit to the size of the Baby Boomers and I fear leaders in these institutions and organizations are setting themselves up for disappointment when population realities are realized in the very near future.

All these ministries and organizations need to respond to a realistic understanding of population trends and become more aware so they can get ahead of the population "parade." I will recommend my clients read this book as a resource to hep them open their eyes!