The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" Paperback – May 11 2010
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In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
Praise for The Black Swan
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
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Top Customer Reviews
Taleb discusses when and where Black Swans (unknown, unlikely, but powerful events) are likely to occur and what we should do about them. If they are expected to be positive (e.g., scientific discoveries) then we should do things to maximize our exposure to them (i.e., have diverse and open research groups). If they are negative, we should do things to guard ourselves against them (e.g., purchase insurance, temper average predictions, etc.).Read more ›
In the 3rd chapter Taleb tells a story about an obscure, unpublished novelist Yevgenia Krasnova and how the success of her novel was a highly improbable event'a Black Swan. Not having heard of this unique success story I put down my book and went to Amazon for more info. After a few minutes of unsuccessful searching in circles I kept reading only to find a footnote at the beginning of Chapter 3 telling me that Yevgenia is fictional!
This didn't sit well with me, especially because my internet search behaviour was predicted and footnoted on the very next page. I began to wonder what other sorts of liberties Taleb was going to take but I kept going because I didn't want to be the type of 'Sucker' Taleb talks about. (Yevgenia's character comes up again and I'm curious how purely fictional or perhaps partially autobiographical her character is.)
Taleb is clearly a very well read and studied man and is not shy about letting you know it. But through this self confidence (possibly arrogance) comes a very lively and passionate dissection of economics as a science and those in it's business, specifically market and economic theorists, traders, investment bankers, portfolio managers, etc.
It's great to read Taleb call out the Economics Nobel Prize committee. One section titled "More Horror" starts:
"Things got a lot worse in 1997.Read more ›
I am also disturbed by (occasionally personal) attacks on people who don't share the author's opinions, name dropping (which the author criticizes in others), by inaccuracies (in my view even mistakes), and ridiculous statements, probably exaggerations intended to emphasize a point. I am uncomfortable with the fact that although the book promises wide applicability of the central ideas (and I agree with that) it much too often slips into illustrating and justifying the points on examples of financial markets and achieving personal wealth.
In summary, I enjoyed the interesting points that the author makes, but the style and orientation of the book don't agree with me.
Most recent customer reviews
This book is the epitome of self-aggrandizement. The author dismisses entire professions, e.g., philosophy professors and most academics in general, arguing that no patterns in... Read morePublished 8 months ago by Ben
Taleb provides us with a very interesting book that is perhaps more interesting than useful. His main argument is pretty well known - infrequent, high impact events determine much... Read morePublished 14 months ago by Rodge
Great insight on human and social behavior regarding risk. A support of the intuitive and empiricall approach over te pseudo certainty of some science, math and financial... Read morePublished 24 months ago by ALEXANDRE RENAUD
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