The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-first Century [Hardcover]

As any realist international relations scholar will readily admit dominance does not last forever. Having said that, it is evident that Kupchan has the order of preeminence and decline with regard to the United States and Europe reversed. Kupchan gives us no reason to believe that economic vitality will return to Europe; not to mention the EU has shown not an inkling of desire to increase military spending and thereby power necessary to place it along side the United States as another pole of even similar weight. Undoubtedly the twenty-first century will see the emergence of multiple poles of power in Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe. If however there is to be a real challenge to US supremacy it will come from Asia and not the EU. Europeans simply do not have the will necessary to project power and claim a place next to the American hyperpower. If Germany can overcome its sense of guilt perhaps the EU will emerge as a powerful global player (an end the US should welcome in any case) but certainly not as the next pole of dominance. There is much more vitality and growth coming out of Asia (in both China and India--the population of India grows more each week than that of the entire EU in one year). As for charges of "unilaterism": it is a red herring with little or no meaning. The left and Europeans have managed to create a smoke screen where the word unilateral no longer means unilateral but rather outside the UN. There is actually very little unilateral action on the part of the US and, to the extent there is, it must be said that acting "unilaterly" as a State is inherent in what it means to be a sovereign political entity. The fact that the US refuses to go along with policies and laws that would impare its sovereignty certainly does not diminish American power. Kupchan takes the typical line of Democratic foreign policy wonks that being liked is analogous to being powerful and not being liked means you are certain to lose power. (Rome was not exactly popular but remained dominant for centuries.) Luckily for the US the emergence of other poles of power will mitigate this nonsensical line of reasoning naturally by deflecting criticism to other entities and thus help to silence the champions of self repudiation. American supremacy eventually will come to an end, but not the way Kupchan tells it, and not nearly as soon as he thinks. (It should come as no surprise that Kupchan was part of the NSC in the Clinton administration. God help us if the Democrats regain the presidency and he finds another spot in government. Doubtless he would then advise the president to embrace infringements on American sovereignty in the name of multilaterism and then be incredulous that American security interests were hindered as a result.)

Prof. Kupchan has a very agreeable style. Most - not all - of his ideas are right. He claims the internet is bad for Democracy in the US. I claim the internet is good for Democracy on a global scale. The internet is positive for transatlantic relations. If this is the end of the American Era just as WW II was the end of the European Era could this be the beginning of the Global Era?! He owes me an answer...

We all know the first, most basic lesson from history - civilizations rise and fall. There are several parameters that will ensure that a powerful nation secures its supremacy for a prolonged period of time - but the key is enlightened leadership. How is it that one of our leading accounting firms whose founder worked to the highest ethical standards fell during the Enron era? How is that just one American President could turn the world's biggest creditor nation into the world's biggest debtor nation in just eight short years. How is it that Japan lost its supremacy in a decade? Surely the answer lies in having enlightened leadership and a system that ensures that a steady succession of enlightened leaders take the helm and are ready in the wings whenever the call arises. Our present system of electing the leader who can blow his own trumpet the loudest has the seeds of self-destruction. My hero in this respect is Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus, the Roman General who tilled the land in retirement until the empire was threatened and he was twice called to the dictatorship of Rome in 458 and 439 BC. In 458 BC he defeated the Aequians in a single day, and after entering Rome in triumph and with large spoils returned to his farm. No blowing his own trumpet and holding onto power by this general!

A wise nation does a simple SWOT analysis - strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats - and formulates a strategy to ensure that it holds on to power. Kupchan reminds us of Churchill's policy in response to the German threat prior to the First World War when, over much opposition, he brought the British fleet back to defend the homeland. But the British leadership was not so enlightened prior to the Second World War; fortunately Churchill was there waiting in the wings. "The End of the American Era" is primarily about the lessons from history applied to present day America and as you might imagine from the title the author gives a thumbs down on the degree of enlightenment of the American leadership today. The author points out that there are already signs that American preponderance and the stability it breeds are slipping away. American internationalism was at its high-water mark during the last decade but is now on the wane despite that fact that today's problems require a multilateral approach and reliance on international institutions. Terrorism poses a collective threat and requires a collective response. The tragic events of September 2001 served as a wake up call to America, alerting the country that the homeland is no longer inviolable and that the US would be wise to take greater interest in crucial foreign policy issues. The central challenge of the future will be the same as the past - managing relations between contending centers of power. Other concerns will pale in comparison to the dangers that will emerge if America believes that its primacy is here to stay. The US has unparalleled potential to shape what comes next but lacks a grand strategy; America is a great power adrift. Unfortunately, the intellectual initiative and institutional creativity of 1815, 1919 and 1945 are missing in Washington today. In addition, we do not have a clearly identified enemy but a much more elusive enemy in terrorism - an enemy schooled in guerrilla tactics where patience and tact are more useful weapons than military power.

Think tanks turn out work with a short shelf life while universities generate scholarship of little relevance to policy. What should America's new map look like? Is Fukuyama in The End of History right in that liberal democracy is taking the world by storm? Is Samuel Huntington in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order right that a struggle among Judeo-Christian, Islamic and Confucian civilizations is in the offing? Is Thomas Friedman in The Lexus and the Olive Tree right that globalization has changed the rules for good? In Kupchan's opinion each vision has its merits but all are wrong. The defining element of the global system is the distribution of power, not democracy, culture, globalization, or anything else. As the US withdraws from multilateral institutions in favor of unilateralism the vacuum will be filled by a new era of geopolitical rivalry. If history is a guide, the end of US primacy will bring with it a more unpredictable and unpleasant world.

It is impossible to predict your opponent's next move in chess, let alone predict moves and counter moves on the international scene. However, Kupchan has presented a convincing argument of how the future might unfold. Homeland security must not stand in the way of efforts to address the more dangerous challenge of the return to rivalry between the world's power centers. All this comes together in the final chapter with the closing sentence "It is now the task of those convinced by the warnings to get on with the difficult, but essential, duty of preparing for the end of the American era." This book has as its prime audience policy makers and decision-makers. Personally, I think every American voter should read this book and understand that voting for the person who blows his trumpet loudest is not going to put the most enlightened leader in the White House and without enlightened leadership we will most certainly see the end of the American era soon. Then it is likely to be a very ugly world.