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The Future Church: How Ten Trends are Revolutionizing the Catholic Church [Hardcover]

John L. Allen Jr.
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Book Description

Nov. 10 2009
One of the world’s foremost religion journalists offers an unexpected and provocative look at where the Catholic Church is headedand what the changes will mean for all of us.

What will the Catholic Church be like in 100 years? Will there be a woman pope? Will dioceses throughout the United States and the rest of the world go bankrupt from years of scandal? In THE FUTURE CHURCH, John L. Allen puts forth the ten trends he believes will transform the Church into the twenty-second century. From the influence of Catholics in Africa, Asia, and Latin America on doctrine and practices to the impact of multinational organizations on local and ethical standards, Allen delves into the impact of globalization on the Roman Catholic Church and argues that it must rethink fundamental issues, policies, and ways of doing business. Allen shows that over the next century, the Church will have to respond to changes within the institution itself and in the world as a whole whether it is contending with biotechnical advances—including cloning and genetic enhancement—the aging Catholic population, or expanding the roles of the laity.

Like Thomas Friedman’s The World Is Flat, THE FUTURE CHURCH establishes a new framework for meeting the challenges of a changing world.

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About the Author

JOHN L. ALLEN, Jr., is the Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter and a Vatican analyst for CNBN and National Public Radio. He is the author of Conclave, All the Pope’s Men, and Opus Dei, and writes the weekly Internet column, “The Word from Rome.” He lives in New York City and Rome.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

In Thomas Friedman’s enormously popular book about globalization, he summarized the essential message in four words: the world is flat. Globalization is knocking down one barrier to opportunity after another, creating a world in which smart, hungry go- getters in India, China, or Brazil can compete not just for the low- wage jobs Americans don’t want, but for the hightech, high- pay jobs they definitely do want. For that reason, Friedman’s book came with a warning: Americans need to hustle in this century or they’ll find themselves run over by this phenomenon.
This too is a book about globalization. Its subject is the oldest globalized institution on earth, the Roman Catholic Church. Its bottom line can also be expressed in a few words: the church is upside down. By that, I don’t mean that the Church is topsy- turvy or out of whack. I mean that the issues, party lines, and ways of doing business that have dominated Catholicism in the forty- plus years since the close of the Second Vatican Council in 1965, that watershed moment in modern Catholic life, are being turned on their head by a series of new forces reshaping the global Church. This book comes with a warning too: Catholics in the twenty- first century won’t just need hustle (though they certainly will need that), but above all they’ll need imagination. They’ll need the capacity to reconsider how they think about the Church, and what they do with their faith, because otherwise Catholicism won’t rise to the occasion of these new challenges— it’ll be steamrolled by them.

Consider the following ways in which the Catholic Church is upside down in the twenty- first century:
• A Church dominated in the twentieth century by the global North, meaning Europe and North America, today finds two thirds of its members living in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Catholic leadership will come from all over the world in this century to a degree never before experienced.
• A Church whose watchword after the Second Vatican Council (1962– 65) was aggiornamento, meaning “opening up to the modern world,” is today officially cutting in the opposite direction, reaffirming everything that makes Catholicism different from modernity. This politics of identity is in part a reaction against runaway secularization.
• A Church whose primary interreligious relationship for the last forty years has been with Judaism now finds itself struggling to come to terms with a newly assertive Islam, not just in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, but in its own European backyard.
• A Church that has historically invested a large share of its pastoral energy in the young now has to cope, beginning in the North, with the most rapidly aging population in human history.
• A Church that has long relied on its clergy to deliver pastoral care and to provide leadership now has lay people doing both in record numbers and in a staggering variety of ways.
• A Church used to debating bioethical issues that have been around for millennia— abortion, birth control, and homosexuality— finds itself in a brave new world of cloning, ge ne tic enhancements, and trans- species chimeras. Its moral teaching is struggling desperately to keep pace with scientific advances.
• A Church whose social teaching took shape in the early stages of the Industrial Revolution now faces a twenty- first- century globalized world, populated by strange entities such as multinational corporations
(MNCs) and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) that didn’t exist when it crafted its vision of the just society.
• A Church whose social concern focuses almost exclusively on human beings finds itself in a world in which the welfare of the cosmos itself requires new theological and moral reflection.
• A Church whose diplomacy has always relied on the Great Catholic Power of the day is now moving in a multipolar world, in which most of the poles that matter aren’t Catholic, and some aren’t even Christian.
• A Church accustomed to thinking of the Christian “other” as the Orthodox, Anglicans, and Protestants today is watching Pentecostals march across the planet, shooting up from 5 to 20 percent of global Christianity in barely a quarter century— in part by siphoning off significant numbers of Catholics. The Catholic Church is itself being “Pentecostalized” through the Charismatic movement.

An old car commercial carried the tagline, “This isn’t your grandfather’s Buick.” I would submit that what we’re looking at today isn’t your mom and dad’s Catholic Church— and it may not even be your older sister’s. The aim of this book is to survey the most important currents shaping the Catholic Church today, and to look down the line at how they might play out during the rest of the twenty- first century. The word I’m using to describe these currents is “trend.” To explain what I have in mind, let me quote the historian Arnold J. Toynbee from his book Civilization on Trial:

The things that make good headlines are on the surface of the stream of life, and they distract us from the slower, impalpable, imponderable movements that work below the surface and penetrate to the depths. But it is really these deeper, slower movements that make history, and it is they that stand out huge in retrospect, when the sensational passing events have dwindled, in perspective, to their true proportions.

Those “slower, impalpable movements” are what I mean by “trends.” (I lay out the six criteria I employed for what counts as a trend in the chapter on “Trends that Aren’t.”) In several cases, there are plenty of headlines associated with one or another aspect of the trends, but usually they’re treated in isolation, as random events, rather than being seen as part of deeper historical patterns. I hope to put the pieces of the contemporary Catholic puzzle together, so we can see what the picture looks like.

Each of the examples of an upside- down Church given above corresponds to one of the ten trends surveyed in this book:
1. A World Church
2. Evangelical Catholicism
3. Islam
4. The New Demography
5. Expanding Lay Roles
6. The Biotech Revolution
7. Globalization
8. Ecology
9. Multipolarism
10. Pentecostalism

The ten chapters of the book correspond to the ten trends listed above. They are not listed in order of rank or priority, as if number one were more important than number ten. To be completely honest, the sequence simply reflects the order in which I wrote the chapters. No additional significance should be attached to why one trend is number two, for example, and another number eight. The format in each chapter is to give the lay of the land first, examining what’s driving the trend and what impact it’s having on the Catholic Church, in a section called “What’s Happening.” I then move into more speculative territory, trying to anticipate what the trend could mean for the Church as the century unfolds. That part is called “What It Means.” These are not really predictions, but possible lines of development that could still be redirected, blocked, or turned in the opposite direction by forces not yet on the radar screen. In each chapter, I offer four categories of outcomes: near- certain, probable, possible, and long shots. Not only does the degree of probability go down with each category, but the projections venture farther out in time. Near- certain consequences are usually short- term extensions of developments that we can already see happening. Long shots, if they happen at all, are usually far on the horizon. The arc of time under consideration here is the rest of the century, meaning roughly ninety years. Farther out than that, all bets are off.
The book’s conclusion is intended as a stand- alone summary of what impact the trends will have in the century to come. I condense the likely profile of upside- down Catholicism into four points. They’re styled as sociological notes of the Church in the twenty- first century, inspired by the theological notes in the Nicene Creed: “One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic.” My notes are intended not as theological claims about the Church’s inner essence, but rather as descriptive terms for what Catholicism will actually look and feel like in this century. The four notes are: “Global, Uncompromising, Pentecostal, and Extroverted.” Readers who just can’t wait to arrive at the bottom line may want to read the conclusion first, then work backward.

Descriptive, not Prescriptive
It’s important to be clear at the outset about what this book is and what it’s not. I’m a journalist, not a priest, theologian, or academic. My role is to document what’s happening in Catholicism and to provide context for it, not tell readers what to think. This book is therefore an exercise in description, not prescription. I’m not trying to argue that these trends are the way Catholicism ought to go, or the issues it ought to face. I’m saying instead that they accurately express the way Catholicism really is going, and the issues it really is facing. I invite readers to bracket off the immediate instinct to debate whether any given trend is positive or negative, and to try to understand it first on its own terms. After that, I entrust the prescriptive debate to better minds than my own. I stress this point because in writing about these trends, I find that many Catholics immediately want to challenge one or another of them on prescriptive grounds: “I don’t think evangelical Catholicism is what Vatican Two had in mind,” or “Ecology is just another word for pagan pantheism.” I understand those reactions. Religion is about someone’s ultimate concern, their ...

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4 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Indispensable Dec 31 2009
By Alcuin
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
John Allen is always excellent and in his book he outdoes himself. Balanced, nuanced, the consummate journalist, he never reduces positions to caricatures but comes across as genuinely interested in honesty and truth. In this book the gifted writer considers important trends in the Catholic Church today and considers what they may mean for the Church's life in the decades to come. This could easily be a fluffy exercise in wishful thinking or armchair theorizing but Allen has done his work meticulously: this book could be read as an introduction to the Catholic faith, to global politics (especially issues of identity and social justice), to the state of thorny bioethical questions and to important contemporary Catholics, plus much more. I have been studying theology for years and keeping abreast of Catholic matters but I learned something on every page - events, people, books, movements. I cannot recommend it highly enough.
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57 of 61 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars The Once and Future Church July 12 2010
By saintmaur - Published on
It seems a sad commentary on the reading habits of contemporary Catholics that this important and informed book on the future of the Church has only seven reviews. John Allen is one of the most readable, well-informed, and well-placed (the National Catholic Reporter's man in Rome) observers of Catholicism today. Although he may be fairly placed in the more liberal camp, this book is surely no liberal rant (pace reviewer `bundasthedog', who does not appear to have gotten much beyond the first page or's usually considered crucial to have read a book one reviews.) Indeed one of the many suggestive conclusions Allen reaches is that the terms `liberal' and `conservative' will have much different and more complex nuances in the coming `global Church' of the 21st century.

In fact, many of Allen's predictions should give a good deal of comfort to classic Catholic conservatives: there will be, he predicts, no women priests; dogma will become both more conservative and more central to Catholic life; the papacy will retain much of its current perquisites and importance, though it will likely become less "Roman".

There are also trends that will give heart to classic Catholic liberals: the role of women and the laity will continue to increase; concern for social and economic justice will move to the forefront of Catholic ethics; the Western domination of Catholic culture will diminish greatly. That is nothing more than to say that the Catholic Church will change much as the world that it finds itself in changes. Allen balances this view, however, with a conviction that Catholic `identity' will sharpen itself ever more clearly against `the world'.

The reader who stays the course will not only benefit from such predictions but will be able to meditate on the deeply researched data that support them: such as: that Pentecostalism, in and outside the Catholic Church, is the fastest growing religious phenomenon of our time; that for the fastest growing Catholic populations--those of sub-Saharan Africa-- Christianity is a brand new religion, lacking the centuries of cultural tradition that often weigh it down in Europe and other traditional Catholic cultures; the astonishing volte-face of the Catholic Church over the issue of capital punishment over the last century. Allen describes this last development by introducing the reader to the 19th-century papal guillotine immaculately preserved in the Roman Museum of Criminology and by describing the almost liturgical ceremony attending the execution of papally-condemned criminals. The story is typical of the elegant interplay of statistics, prediction, and historical vignette that enliven this readable `story of the future'.

Predicting the future is, however, a perilous undertaking. The reader may recall one of the most famous examples of this from Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Still regarded as one of the finest historians of the European Middle Ages, Gibbon proved a poor predictor of the future. Writing in 1776, he argued that the Enlightenment thinkers and leaders of his day had finally overcome the terrible tribalism and irrational militarism that had darkened Europe's earlier history. The Enlightenment understanding of the past and the triumph of reason, he predicted, would produce a future free of major wars, and an end to economic disasters, and of political tyranny.

Let me then issue a small caveat in the context of Allen's predictions for the course of The Future Church. Much of his optimism regarding the Church of the next century rests upon the vibrant Catholicism of the "southern" churches of Africa and Latin America. Allen's description of the population trends and projections of economic growth, the rise of education, and the spread of democracy in these cultural areas will make them Catholic powerhouses of extraordinary economic strength and political clout.
However, if history is any guide, the rise of education, economic prosperity, and popular sovereignty have proven extremely corrosive to religious belief and commitment. The entire history of Europe suggests this conclusion; as one recent example, one might look at John Paul II's beloved Poland, whose religious and political freedom was perhaps his most sought after goal. When, to the world's surprise, this was achieved more easily and quickly than anyone could have imagined, the result was not a free and devoutly Catholic (and grateful) Poland, but an incresingly secular and materialistic society that reportedly broke the aging pontiff's heart. I see no reason to believe that the emerging economies and increasing freedoms of Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia would not take the same trajectory towards secularism and religious indifference. This development would take the history of Allen's `southern Church' (and so the Catholic Church as a whole) in directions quite different than those he imagines in his book. It is surprising that so astute a reporter ignored this fundamental trend in history and in contemporary emerging cultures.

Nonetheless, The Future Church is a book not to be missed by anyone who will be journeying with the Catholic Church in the 21st century, or even by those who watch the stately if often mysterious march of this ancient institution from the relatively bright corridors of History into the dimly lit path of the Future.
67 of 77 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent, Balanced, Global Assessment Dec 28 2009
By Happy Mom - Published on
This book so thoroughly covers the main issues facing the Catolic church, I will be forever changed in the way I view our world and my faith. Like many Americans, I thought the issues that are "hot" here are hot everywhere in the Church. This is not the case. There are very real, very different concerns depending on where you live. For example, did you know there are 1 priest to every 1,300 Catholics in the US, but it's more like 1 to 8,000 in South America? Wow. If you already knew that you may pat yourself on the back; but I would still bet there is some issue in this book you don't know as much about as you thought.

Things addressed in the book include: globalization, pentecostalism, lay roles, and ecology to name a few I particularly enjoyed learning about. If your "issue" is not listed he even explains why in the last chapter. However, if you read the book chances are good you will find it woven through several chapters. The style of writing is easy to follow, thought provoking, and filled with statistics and sources.

As a Catholic born post-Vatican II, I learned a lot from this book. The author doesn't come across as ultra-conservative which would have turned me off. Neither does he seem ultra-liberal which would have left me wondering how much he really has his finger on the pulse of the church. It seems like he's in the middle like me.
31 of 35 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Furute Church: the Catholic world according to John Allen Feb. 3 2010
By William F. Foster - Published on
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
In his characteristic meticulous researching, John Allen has come to visualize a future Roman Catholic church. He sees this vision shaped by ten trends, which he has sensed by multi-national, multilevel discussions with lay and clerics ranging from the lay parishioner to cardinals of the Church. The vision he sets forth will surprise American catholics who have not been monitoring the development of the church in Africa, South America, and India. He sees the emergence of a church whose epicenter shifts southward, and sets forth what he thinks this will entail. Consider a black African Pope or an Asian one. His ten trends include social change also: new views towards celibacy, liberalization of some aspects of the church and a shift toward conservatism in others. He includes his take on the evolution of the role of women in the Church. In a short review, it is difficult to detail the wealth of lore in this 450 page book, but I would invirte readers to join him in his journey and enter into the discussion of this very original and enlightening look into the future of the Catholic Church.
28 of 33 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars An Incredible Book Jan. 22 2010
By Jonathon Spurlock - Published on
I am truly amazed that more people haven't reviewed this book. In a word - it's an amazing book, especially for those who appreciate analysis. John Allen is one of the ultimate insiders in the Catholic Church. Allen is the Catholic reporter and analyst for CNN and NPR. He is also the most credible, universally respected writer for the National Catholic Reporter, a newspaper for Catholic fossils. I greatly appreciate Allen's weekly blogs. His books are balanced, objective, and in a word, outstanding. However, I would really have to say that this book is his best. His identification and explanation of the 10 trends of the future is very well-substantiated. In particular, I especially valued his section on Islam. I learned so much from reading this assessment. John Allen - keep up the good work!
23 of 27 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Lots of good info to get through but well worth it Feb. 3 2010
By Michael G. Haigerty - Published on
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
If you have any interest in the Roman Catholic Church, this book should be on your "to read" list. John Allen uses his extensive journalistic experience covering the Church to share with us ten "mega-trends" facing Roman Catholics well into the 21st century. As an American Catholic who works in a Catholic midwestern parish, I appreciated John's global perspective that opened my eyes to more than just issues that I or my neighbors in the U.S. face (witchcraft? polygamy? Yup!). It truly does give one a catholic, i.e. universal perspective, and I think a reliable if not infallible one, since John has so many connections all over the world. When you can get three Cardinals from three different continents to read your book before publication, that's saying something.

This is a well researched book divided into 10 trends. While these 10 chapters were quite interesting and informative, his summary chapter at the end, which I read after the introduction - something he suggests - was a great beginning before plowing through the body of the book. I also enjoyed the chapter on "Trends That Aren't" where he talks about why he chose what he did and shares many topics that didn't make the cut and why. It's funny that someone suggested that one of the most important issues facing the global church is "Clown Masses." For real. It was suggested (I'm sure Pope Benedict loses sleep over Clown Masses. On second thought, maybe he does). The author wisely didn't devote a chapter to it. I enjoyed his consideration of more serious topics and his reasoning as to why they didn't make the cut as well.

Speaking as a lowly Dir. of Religious Education at the parish level, I would think any bishop would be wise to make the time to read this book and take these issues and his recommendations seriously (and priests, religious, and lay persons as well). One might even create a pastoral plan for the future around many if not all of these items, such as: Bioethics, Ecology, Expanding Lay Ministry, Evangelical Catholicism, Pentecostalism, Demographics, Multipolarism, Globalization, Islam, etc. All, he argues, are critical issues, and he does a good job arguing his case, including a ton of research (with references at the end of the book that can be looked up and read, though no footnotes or endnotes, which I didn't like). Then, based on this argument for each trend, he tries to predict how these issues will affect the Church, dividing his recommendations into categories: "Near-certain," "Probable," "Possible," and "Long-Shot." I thought his near certain and probable consequences were right on; the long shots were a bit far-fetched at times, but heh, its his book. He did the research, he can take wild guesses if he wants. And some are wild: a Catholic mission on Mars? Alien Baptisms?! Come on John, be realistic! (okay, that was a joke. He didn't recommend either one)

Worth the money and time to read. But with all the info, a little difficult to get through at times. I skipped around and read the trends that most piqued my interest first. I don't think he'd mind. They're not ranked in order 1-10 by importance or anything like that. It's really a sociological study of the Roman Catholic Church into the 21st century, even though he is not a sociologist. Not necessarily what you may want to hear or what you'd prefer the Church to be or be focusing on, but probably right on target as to the way it is now and will be, barring some miracle of God or act of nature, like contact with aliens or a meteor hitting earth.

Mike Haigerty
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