- Paperback: 64 pages
- Publisher: Vorago US (Dec 30 2002)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 159196153X
- ISBN-13: 978-1591961536
- Product Dimensions: 20.6 x 13.2 x 0.5 cm
- Shipping Weight: 91 g
- Average Customer Review: 3.3 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #620,549 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Most helpful customer reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars
We Ignore Arnold At Our Peril,
By A Customer
This review is from: The Great Bu$T Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Why and How Best to Survive It (Paperback)
I read The Great Bust Ahead after reading the five page lead article based on the book in the February 2004 issue of the Professional Investor in the UK, a journal that does not publish articles lightly. (A link to the article is available on the book's website - address is the same as the book's title as one word). Apart from the "disappointed" reviewer who mysteriously wants longer books and more than one theory (sorry Galileo, one theory of the solar system just won't do anymore!), I agree with most of the reviewers - this is a 4 to 5 Star book. The book can be read quickly and easily understood. My first reaction was "surely it can't be this simple". However, the more I examined Arnold's reasons for the premise that the economies in western democracies are driven by demographics and, within that, the booms and busts by a specific simple sub-demographic, the more it became clear that the premise was not only correct it was common sense. The graphical data showing how the US economy has followed this premise not just approximately but precisely for the last 80 years or so, was not just mind-blowing but a revelation. After struggling (unsuccessfully) to understand "wave theories" like Elliot and Kondratiev, which I can now see are pure nonsense explaining nothing historically, Arnold's book is like having a curtain pulled back on a whole new vista. His confident prediction that the economy would pick up again by 2003/4 appears to be right on the button. I now totally believe his forecast that the economy will grow modestly and steadily though 2010 followed by the greatest bust and depression in history. I am able to believe it not just blindly, but because Arnold's logic and facts seem virtually unassailable. As one other reviewer put it - "This is an extremely important piece of work". I am now hard at work planning how to survive what is coming and, for the first time, I have a clear understanding of why I am doing what I am doing financially long-term. We ignore Arnold at our peril.
1.0 out of 5 stars
Disappointing [short book],
By A Customer
This review is from: The Great Bu$T Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Why and How Best to Survive It (Paperback)
The author basically has only one theory to discuss in this [short book], and once presented in the most simplistic of terms, he does not feel the need to discuss it further. His theory is that the DJIA can be predicted based on the numbers of 45-54 year olds - "big spenders" as he calls them. When the numbers of this age group goes down, so will the economy. The rest of the book describes in overly dramatic terms (complete with excessive exclamation points and bold print) just how bad the depression will be when the numbers of this age group declines. The author predicts the worst depression in history will occur sometime after 2010 (when the numbers of "big spenders" will decrease significantly.) Then he throws in a paragraph or two about what to do before the depression (invest in stocks) and just prior to the depression (sell your house by 2010 and invest in Treasury bonds.) That's it.
4.0 out of 5 stars
Batten down the hatches! Heavy Waves Ahead!,
By Mason Johnson (Brooklyn, New York United States) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Great Bu$T Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Why and How Best to Survive It (Paperback)
Are we heading into the biggest depression of all time? Is it preventable? Who will be affected the most?GUESS! Mr. Arnold addresses these and many more questions in this book. His analysis is so simple enough that anyone can understand why there is cause for concern. With the amount of debt being financed by the US and taken on by other countries, we are definitely waiting for the great vacuum to suck in every investor. From Social Security deficit to the GOld Standard, Arnold hands out reason enough for every American to reconsider their investment strategy and think long term, very long term!This is required reading for every American. Mason Johnson
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