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The Ingenuity Gap: Can We Solve the Problems of the Future? [Paperback]

Thomas Homer-Dixon
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (13 customer reviews)
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Book Description

Aug 28 2001
"The most persuasive forecast of the 21st century I have seen." -- E.O. Wilson, author of Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge and twice winner of a Pulitzer prize

“Human beings have been smart enough to turn nature to their ends, generate vast wealth for themselves, and double their average life span. But are they smart enough to solve the problems of the 21st century?” -- Thomas Homer-Dixon

Can we create ideas fast enough to solve the very problems -- environmental, social, and technological -- we’ve created? Homer-Dixon pinpoints the “ingenuity gap” as the critical problem we face today, and tackles it in a riveting, groundbreaking examination of a world that is rapidly exceeding our intellectual grasp.

In The Ingenuity Gap, Thomas Homer-Dixon, "global guru" (the Toronto Star), "genuine academic celebrity" (Saturday Night) and "one of Canada's most talked about and controversial scholars" (Maclean's) asks: is our world becoming too complex, too fast-paced to manage? The challenges facing us -- ranging from international financial crises and global climate change to pandemics of tuberculosis and AIDS- converge, intertwine, and remain largely beyond our ken. Most of suspect the "experts don't really know what's going on; that as a species we've released forces that are neither managed nor manageable. We are fast approaching a time when we may no longer be able to control a world that increasingly exceeds our grasp. This is "the ingenuity gap" -- the term coined by Thomas Homer-Dixon, political scientist and advisor to the White House -- the critical gap between our need for practical, innovative ideas to solve complex problems and our actual supply of those ideas.

Through gripping narrative stories and incidents that exemplify his arguments, he takes us on a world tour that begins with a heartstopping description of the tragic crash of United Airlines Flight 232 from Denver to Chicago and includes Las Vegas in its desert, a wilderness beach in British Columbia, and his solitary search for a little girl in Patna, India. He shows how, in our complex world, while poor countries are particularly vulnerable to ingenuity gaps, our own rich countries are not immune, and we are caught dangerously between a soaring requirement for ingenuity and an increasingly uncertain supply. When the gap widens, political disintegration and violent upheaval can result, reaching into our own economies and daily lives in subtle ways. In compelling, lucid, prose, he makes real the problems we face and suggests how we might overcome them -- in our own lives, our thing, our business and our societies.

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As the world becomes more complex, so do its problems--and the solutions to these problems become tougher to grasp, writes University of Toronto professor Thomas Homer-Dixon in The Ingenuity Gap. "As we strive to maintain or increase our prosperity and improve the quality of our lives, we must make far more sophisticated decisions, and in less time, than ever before," he writes. Is the day coming in which our ingenuity can't keep up? Homer-Dixon fears that it is: "the hour is late," and we're blindly "careening into the future." What we face, he says, is a "very real chasm that sometimes looms between our ever more difficult problems and our lagging ability to solve them." There are moments when Homer-Dixon comes close to sounding like a modern-day Malthus, with his never-ending worries about population growth, the environment, the strength of international financial institutions, civil wars, and so on. Yet parts of this book are downright fascinating; at its best, The Ingenuity Gap reads like one of Malcolm Gladwell's stories for The New Yorker (or his book The Tipping Point).

Homer-Dixon is very good when he tackles particular problems, and his interests are wide-ranging, moving from the psychology of an airplane cockpit during a crisis to the depletion of the world's fisheries to differences between the minds of Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. He also dredges up fine details. Did you know that "the largest human-made structure on the planet is not an Egyptian pyramid or a hydroelectric dam but the Staten Island Fresh Kills landfill near New York City, which has a depth of one hundred meters and an area of nine square kilometers"? There's plenty to argue with on these pages, and some readers will find Homer-Dixon's tendency to write in the first person a bit self-indulgent. Yet fans of big-think books like Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel, David Landes's The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, and Robert Wright's The Moral Animal will find The Ingenuity Gap riveting. --John J. Miller --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

From Publishers Weekly

In a virtual tour of the state of ingenuity today, Homer-Dixon reminds us that "the greater complexity, unpredictability and pace of our world, and our rising demands on the human-made and natural systems around us" make it more critical than ever that smart solutions to technical and social problems be ready at a moment's notice. If economists like Harold Barnett and Chandler Morse rely on market forces to keep the supply of ingenuity in line with demand, Homer-Dixon, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, regards such an attitude as dangerously optimistic. Recounting the details and timing of crises like the October 1987 stock market crash and the July 1989 crash of United Flight 232 in which 111 passengers died but 185 miraculously survived, he argues that only a unique confluence of people and experience lets the supply of ingenuity equal the demand to avert total disaster in each case. Given persistent imperfections in markets, breakdowns in feedback loops and the weakening of social structures that have traditionally facilitated ingenuity, he is dubious that such extraordinary conditions can be met time and again. To scare us into action, he provides hair-raising examples of the effects of collapsing systems in Third World countries he has visited and studied. Marshaling a vast amount of information from such disparate fields as economics, ecology and biology, Homer-Dixon makes his most compelling case arguing for increased efforts to nurture social as well as technical ingenuity. (Oct.)
Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Customer Reviews

Most helpful customer reviews
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Mind the Gap please Dec 3 2001
By Lili
Format:Hardcover
Unlike our friend from Prague, who obviously has an axe to grind, I thought this was a brilliant book! Its scope is breathtaking, and its thesis is convincing. And the book is starting to get the attention it deserves, in the form of Canada's Governor General's award for non-fiction, the country's top literary prize.

There are many things I like about The Ingenuity Gap: what appeals to me most is that Homer-Dixon attacks the arrogance of Western society -- the idea that if everybody simply does things like us, they'll be rich, fat, and happy [via a reality of 80 hour work weeks, fast,greasy food and a prescription]. We think that we've got everything worked out, that we know it all. Page by page, this book demolishes that conceit. Each chapter goes after one or two of the assumptions that sustain our pumped-up arrogance and self-delusion. By the time Homer-Dixon finishes, human beings are revealed for what they really are -- incredibly creative creatures who are nonetheless frequently out of their depth, but who spend a great deal of energy convincing themselves that they aren't. [I'm not sure if I should thank him for this insight or just seek chocolate comfort!]

Homer-Dixon writes with real power. He uses personal stories, with his life and overseas experiences as his raw materials. Readers who are comfortable only with academic writing might find these stories self-indulgent, but I find that the style successfully communicates a specific idea or point. Why don't we encourage our dry-as-dust academics and intellectuals to communicate with stories more? Instead of slamming Homer-Dixon for revealing something about himself, we should applaud him for his courage. [Where was Homer-Dixon when I was in university????]

The Ingenuity Gap should be required reading in our schools and universities, and it should be on the bedside table of all our politicians and decision-makers. This one is a must-read.

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars A must read Dec 23 2001
Format:Hardcover
An excellent resource for understanding the challenges we are facing in the 21st century. Homer-Dixon's book is accessible, precise and provides strong recommendations for preparing for the future.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars The kind of work society needs Nov 28 2000
Format:Hardcover
The Ingenuity Gap is a book filled with big ideas that originate from numerous fields of research, and the result is quite stunning. There are so many contentious topics in this 400-page book that every now and then readers are bound to disagree with the author. Notwithstanding, disagreement is the result of conversation, and throughout the book this is the impression I had, that I was having a conversation with a man who has traveled all over the world to find a solution (if one there is) to the growing complexities of the world we live in.

The application of chaos and non-linearity to social science is probably not new, but Homer-Dixon presents this principle in such a way that it is impossible for the reader not to see it extending its long fingers around the world we live in, a world that, thanks to us, is growing in complexity.

This book serves as a wake-up call for policy-makers around the world who believe that every problem can be solved by technical means only (such as providing Internet connections to starving African children in countries ravaged by wars, jingoism, disease and scarcity of natural resources). Such positivism is misplaced, or misappropriated, Homer-Dixon argues. The widening gap between the rich and the poor of this world is a problem that is in urgent need of being addressed, and as long as we blind ourselves to the oftentimes hard realities of this world, or refuse to look beyond the gates of our rich Western communities, the world will not become a better place, and it could even turn for the worse.

Is this book nothing more than the musings of an unfettered alarmist? Some Westerners might argue that it is. But that is exactly what we can expect from people who spend their whole lives working in an environment that has distanced itself from the natural world (see, for instance, the Vegas chapter of this book). We Westerners have erected towering protective walls around our lives, and knowingly or not we have built the very screens which make it very difficult to see what lies beyond and consequently make it even more difficult for us to find solutions to problems people in less-fortunate countries are facing. Eventually, Homer-Dixon argues, the problems arising in a small country on the other side of the globe could very well embark on the bandwagon of chaos and surprise us with a bang on arrival.

The Ingenuity Gap is, to use a word E. O. Wilson resurrected a few years ago, an example of consilience, in that it draws on research from different fields - scientific, social, etc - to make a point, hoping in the process that it will initiate rapprochement and a fine-tuned orchestration (instead of competitiveness) of human efforts to solve the many difficulties we face today and undoubtedly shall face in the future.

Filled with to-the-point metaphors, interesting people, and written with exemplary lucidity, The Ingenuity Gap is the perfect wake-up call for a world that, awash in information, is slowly giving up on itself.

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Most recent customer reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars It represents all what I am concerned about.,
This book could be updated daily by more events and phenomena, pointing that Thomas Homer-Dixon knows what he writes about. Read more
Published on Feb 20 2010 by Regnal
1.0 out of 5 stars The Ingenuity Gap or A Collection of Platitudes
I read Homer Dixon's Book and I was very disapointed. His book lacks structure, and is very very repetitive(Its 400 pages, it could be easily written in 50 pages without... Read more
Published on Jun 28 2005
5.0 out of 5 stars Nothing is easy�
The short answer to Homer-Dixon's question in the subtitle of his book "Can we solve the problems of the future?" is: it depends. Read more
Published on Dec 12 2002 by Friederike Knabe
3.0 out of 5 stars Chicken Little writes a book....
Not a bad book by any means, eloquently writting, well researched, and Dixon often adds a well fit personal perspective and experience to his points. Read more
Published on May 15 2002 by Joe Greps
5.0 out of 5 stars CAN WE SAVE MAN FROM EXTINCTION?
I first became acquainted with the extraordinary book "The Ingenuity Gap" by Thomas Homer-Dixon on Pacifica Radio, KPFK Los Angeles, on the "Free Forum" show during a one hour... Read more
Published on Feb 26 2002 by "jimbo90036"
5.0 out of 5 stars Engrossing, entertaining, and disturbing
This is an extraordinary book, and it should be widely read. Not only does it make a compelling case that the problems we're creating for ourselves are rapidly outrunning our... Read more
Published on Nov 17 2001 by Doug James Armstrong
5.0 out of 5 stars The Big Wake Up
anyone not taking seriously the information in The Ingenuity Gap
is still asleep. Prof. Homer-Dixon's book is clear, concise and
accurate combined with sensitivity and... Read more
Published on Nov 15 2001
4.0 out of 5 stars Excellence in inginuity
Thought provoking, incise, right on the mark. I dodn't know what book the reviewer from Prague was writing about, but I suggest he read this book. Read more
Published on Nov 15 2001
1.0 out of 5 stars You must be joking...
This is astounding: I must have read a totally different book than the other reviewers, with the same title and by the same author. Read more
Published on Oct 31 2001 by Alexei Tsvetkov
5.0 out of 5 stars Thoughtful and inspiring book about an important subject
Thomas Homer-Dixon describes that, while lots of political, economical, technological and ecological problems face us, the world has become too complex for us to control or even... Read more
Published on Oct 2 2001 by Coert Visser
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