- Paperback: 316 pages
- Publisher: Writers Club Press (Mar 1 2002)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0595217117
- ISBN-13: 978-0595217113
- Product Dimensions: 22.9 x 15.6 x 1.9 cm
- Shipping Weight: 431 g
- Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #678,188 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
Product Details |
Product Description
Book Description
What the rhythms of history tell us about our past and future.
Many authors have attempted to identify an underlying meaning or pattern to history. Arnold Toynbee wrote of 100 year cycles of war and peace that emerged after the Renaissance. Nikolai Kondratiev wrote of 50 year waves in economic life. Arthur Schlesinger wrote of a recurrent political cycle in American politics. Most recently, William Strauss and Neil Howe have written a generational interpretation of American history. The Kondratiev Cycle: a generational interpretation provides empirical evidence showing that these cycles are aligned together and so reflect different aspects of an underlying cyclical process. The unified cycle obtained is used to make several predictions for future trends as a test of its validity. If valid, this unification means that those who wish to understand an aspect of the human story, such as economics, must also understand other aspects, such as religious studies, that interact with economics at a deep level.
About the Author
Michael Alexander Ph.D. is a research engineer at Pharmacia Corporation. He has had a lifelong interest in economic history. He is the author of Stock Cycles (2000). He lives in Kalamazoo Michigan.
Tag this product(What's this?)Think of a tag as a keyword or label you consider is strongly related to this product.
Tags will help all customers organize and find favorite items. |
Customer Reviews
|
Share your thoughts with other customers:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Most helpful customer reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars
My highest recommendation,
By J.S.E. (Minnesota) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation (Paperback)
I give my highest recommendation to this book. I found it to be well-researched, very rigorous, and the conclusions very convincing.As also stated in his previous book "Stock Cycles...", he said (paraphrase) that the true test of the validity of his conclusions is to observe how events in the future unfold. So far, he is right on!! Michael, if you're reading this, will you please write another book or offer those of us who admire your work a means to keep up with your current thinking? Jim
1.0 out of 5 stars
pseudo-science presented as science,
By SteveNY "steveny" (New York, NY USA) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation (Paperback)
it is fascinating that the K cycles coincide, perhaps coincidentally, with the generational cycle as popularized by a couple pseudo-scientists (strauss and howe). half the book is to explain why the cycle lengths change over time, and explaining away any differences or "the anomaly of the civil war period". the real meat of the argument could be presented - and the "predictions" as well - in a chapter or two. the prediction is simply that the bear market will continue. ok, thanks. while the observation that the K cycles coincide with one of the many theories of generational cycles is appreciated, if the Strauss&Howe cycles had not matched up, he could have merely found some other data to fit the theory of his choosing.
5.0 out of 5 stars
A valuable contribution to the long-cycle literature,
By chris k papenhausen (Minneapolis, MN United States) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation (Paperback)
If successful prediction is a sign of good science, Michael Alexander, who in his previous book "Stock Cycles: Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next Twenty Years" predicted poor stock market returns for twenty years beginning in 2000, has impressive scientific credentials.In his second book, he synthesizes the theory of stock cycles and innovation waves developed in his first book, with a generational cycle based on the idea of birth cohort peer personalities, a Kondratieff social stress cycle, a world power cycle and a political cycle to describe a single operative cycle that is currently approximately 72 years. The analysis is very quantitative (but fairly easy to follow) and relies quite a bit on statistical significance testing, something that is understandably lacking in most long cycle research (there aren't generally enough cycles to test for statistical significance). Alexander's tying together of several independently constructed cycles to rise to statistical significance is perhaps his most important contribution. But there are several other contributions here including his use of a tool called reduced price that he uses to show that the Kondratieff Cycle that appeared to have ended around mid-century 20th century is actually still operative. I highly recommend this book for investors, history buffs or anyone who loves a good intellectual puzzle. Some readers may be put off by the more speculative arguments, but the scope of subjects covered here should appeal to almost anyone.
Share your thoughts with other customers: Create your own review
Want to see more reviews on this item?
|
|
Listmania!
Look for similar items by category
- Books > Business & Investing > Economics > Economic History
- Books > Business & Investing > Popular Economics
- Books > History > Asia > Russia
- Books > History > Russia
- Books > Nonfiction > Economics > Economic History
- Books > Nonfiction > Social Sciences > Political Science > Political Doctrines
- Books > Professional & Technical > Accounting & Finance > Economics > Economic History
Look for similar items by subject
Feedback
Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?
|
