The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization [Paperback]

The author discusses El Nino, the Southern Oscillation, and the Gulf Stream "conveyor belt" and the effects of the introduction of increased fresh, cold water into it as he does in his other books. A more complete discussion of these phenomena was given in Little Ice Age, however, so if the reader is a little confused by the more limited introduction in this book or is simply curious about them, he/she should definitely read LIA for clarification.

Some of the author's points were not new to me. In particular I had read a collection of articles on the concept of human evolution as driven by continental drift and its effect on the Gulf Stream and climate. I have also recently read a book (Secrets of the Sands: The Revelations of Egypt's Everlasting Oasis), which discusses climate change and lifestyle, in this instance that in Egypt and its Oases. The theory that the invasions of the Sea Peoples into Asia Minor, the Levant and Egypt were climate driven had been discussed as early as the '60s and '70s. Other points were probably predictable but had never occurred to me, for instance that the attacks on settled societies by desert invaders were driven by the desperate living conditions of the latter with a major dry spell. Most of the history of the ancient near east is studied from the perspective of the city dwellers, the marginal populations being treated as "unfortunate" intrusions which brought collapse. One almost gets a sense that they did so arbitrarily just to be difficult!

An interesting book. It might provide something of a background for courses on ancient civilization. Certainly it would make the ebb and flow of nomadic populations and their impact on the settled societies they boardered more sensible.

For those WRITING PAPERS in history, climatology, sociology, and political science: one might look at the effects of climate on ancient societies and predict the likely outcome of a similar down turn on today's populations. Look at writers like Per Bak (How Nature Works: the Science of Self-Organized Criticality), whose studies of sentinel events suggests that every possible event will ultimately occur with a different probability and at unpredictable times, or Stuart Kaufman (At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity) whose work suggests that such events actually help increase organization. How might these authors' works actually support Fagan's thesis? What would they say about the future of our own civilization?

The author treated the Medieval era sloppily. Druids did not "compete" with Christianity through the 5th century AD. Most of them were murdered by the Romans, the survivors losing influence. The Celts (their elite, the only ones who counted) had adopted Christianity by the 3rd century, and spread out all over Europe, even to Italy, as missionaries and teachers. Perhaps Fagan is confusing Druidism, a pagan religion, with the brilliant and tolerant Pelagian "Celtic" Christianity that flourished from about the 3rd to the 8th centuries, survived in enclaves -- possibly, as some claim, influencing dissenting Protestantism many centuries later. There were plenty of European pagans in the 5th century, but they resided in the Germanic, Baltic and Slavic lands, which weren't converted till later.

Where does he get the idea that Gothic architecture began as early as the 10th century, which was the heyday of the Romanesque style? Gothic architecture appeared tentatively in the mid-12th century, but the Gothic era spanned the late 12th century through the 15th, with the 13th century as its most creative period.

Even more worrisome than the careless Medieval research are Fagan's maps and illustrations. First of all, I recognized some maps and drawings from other books but can't find them cited in the credits. Perhaps because several were taken from other sources, there's a frequent lack of correspondence between text and picture, or simply an incomplete drawing. Examples: On p. 16 Western Spain is covered in dark gray, but there's no legend for dark gray. On p. 81, in a section on the Kebarans, I looked in vain to find the name "Kebara" on the map. Worst of all, on p. 163 the illustration shows the phallic Egyptian god "Mut." The text names this god as "Min." There are many other graphics with similarly irksome problems.

I remember the first edition of MacNeil's ENGLISH LANGUAGE having similar problems with poorly proofed maps and illustrations, and a corrected edition being hastily published. Fagan needs to do the same with this book, or his reputation will suffer.

Establishing a scenario beginning twenty thousand years ago, Fagan lines out three Acts for the peopling of the Americas. The first is in "the primodial homeland", Ice Age Siberia, followed by conditions revealed about the Beringian Land Bridge of fifteen thousand years ago. The final act takes us to the chaotic Atlantic and the European environment. Conditions were rarely stable as "the glaciers were never still". Their "irregular dance" kept conditions variable and human response was adapt or perish. Canadian fresh meltwater interrupted the Gulf Stream letting harsh cold envelope Europe.

Human adaptibility often meant improvements on older technologies or innovative ones to cope with the result of climate change. Spears, later with atlatls - "spear throwers" to improve range and accuracy, then bows, were significant tools. Yet, one of the most momentous inventions was the needle - still in use almost unchanged today. This device could produce layered clothing, a major adaptive step in times of abrupt weather changes.

Weather changes can be due to single events - even those occurring at intervals like El Nino. A critical solitary event happened around 6200 BCE with the "implosion" of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The cascade of fresh water into the North Atlantic created drought conditions throughout Europe and the eastern Mediterranean while raising ocean levels. This rise later led to a catastrophe when the Mediterranean found an outlet to the Euxine Lake. The inflow created the Black Sea, driving people west into the Danube Valley and changing human society in the area drastically. Continuing fluctuations brought further challenges to increasing populations. Stable food supplies provided by agriculture reduced mobility and fed population growth. The cost was people tied to the land and a new vulnerability to climate change.

Fagan's example of this new situation is found in the history of a California people known as the Chumash. These coastal people had deep ties with family members living inland. The arrangement kept food supplies relatively stable through exchange networks. This continuum expanded over a large area resulting in concomitant population growth. When expansion was no longer feasible, war substituted for exchange systems. Not a violent people, the conflicts were the result of environmental pressure on food resources. A drastic social change took place around 1150 AD. The lost networks were restored through a new arrangement. The family system was shelved for a new oligarchy of powerful community leaders working cooperatively with meagre, but sustaining food stocks. While the Chumash remained vulnerable to climate vagaries, they didn't starve as in the past.

Fagan stresses that vulnerability has been built into modern society. Civilisation is a high-stakes game, and the planet is the banker. Most of the cards we played in the past are now in the discard pile. Mobility is not an option when the planet is so thoroughly occupied. New technologies will not provide new lands submerged by rising seas nor blighted by drought. If the Gulf Stream fails again, as it has in the past, it will be all Europe faced with the need for a new home. Where? A Europe covered in ice will produce drought throughout western Asia and likely beyond. It isn't the cause of climate change that requires examination, but what must be done to deal with, Fagan urges. The "stewardship" of resources successfully adopted by some societies must be invoked again. That requires a knowledgeable population, briefed by readers of this book. This is far from a "should read" book - it is a "must read" for us all. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]