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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century [Hardcover]

George Friedman
3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
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Book Description

Jan 27 2009

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com


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Review

"With a unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling, Friedman (America’s Secret War) offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. The author asserts that “the United States’ power is so extraordinarily overwhelming” that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and ’20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names “battle stars.” Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedman’s 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedman’s crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment." --Publishers Weekly

“This is a book about unintended consequences and how the constraints of time and place impact the behavior of individuals and nations and offer a view of future events. [Friedman’s] theories are fascinating….This is an excellent book.”
--Booklist

“Futurologist Friedman entertainingly explains how America will bestride the world during this century. Prophecy, whether by astrologers, science-fiction writers or geopoliticians, has a dismal track record, but readers will enjoy this steady stream of clever historical analogies, economic analyses and startling demographic data.”
--Kirkus

“There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8-Ball.”
—New York Times Magazine

Barron’s consistently has found Stratfor’s insights informative and largely on the money—as has the company’s large client base, which ranges from corporations to media outlets and government agencies.”
Barron’s

“One of the country’s leading strategic affairs experts.”
—Lou Dobbs

About the Author

GEORGE FRIEDMAN is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of four books, including most recently America’s Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.


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Customer Reviews

Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 13 people found the following review helpful
By Donald Mitchell #1 HALL OF FAME TOP 10 REVIEWER
Format:Hardcover
No one can forecast what the weather will be next week in most parts of the world, why would anyone think that forecasting what nations will do in detail over 70 years is possible? George Friedman doesn't think it's possible either, but the exercise presents the opportunity to identify sources of potential future conflicts and alliances on the geopolitical stage. Thinking about those issues is well worth considering. An ounce of prevention may just help avoid tons of regret in some cases.

George Friedman believes that considerations of potential military defense and offense, access to needed raw materials and markets, demographics, political strengths and weaknesses, technology, and national economic interests can be combined to imagine how future leaders will see their situations and how well they will be able to handle old and new challenges vis-à-vis their neighbors and competitors. From those sources, he identifies factors that will probably be important which include:

1. Increasing importance of having access to shipping via the oceans due to ever-expanding global trade.

2. Continued U.S. dominance of the oceans.

3. Political and social weaknesses in China and Russia that will cause those nations to weaken and fragment.

4. Decline in population size in developed countries requiring pro-immigration strategies to stay competitive.

5. Emergence of space-based warfare and energy generation to shift the basis of national competition.

6. Robotics replacing less-skilled workers throughout the world creating a wave of unemployment.

7. Aggressive geographical expansions of influence by nations which are bounded by weak countries.

8. A continued dominance by the United States except in controlling the regions in the country that are filled with Mexican-Americans.

As a result, he projects an end to armed conflicts between Muslims and Americans on religious grounds; a new cold war with Russia; fragmentation of China's economic power and military strength; the rise of regional power in nations like Turkey, Japan, and Poland; a space-based war aimed at the United States by Japan and Turkey; the rise of space-based energy as the economic underpinning of prosperity; and a civil crisis in the Southwestern U.S.

Who knows if these things will happen? They could.

I felt that the main weakness in his argument was failing to consider the possible development of a strong regional block involving both North and South America over the next 20 years. Such a block would have tremendous access to technology, resources, positive demographics, and be easier to keep secure than trying to project power around the world. With such a strong base, many of the issues that concern Mr. Friedman about U.S. interests would be considerably less pressing. If the U.S. were not as aggressive in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, some of the conflicts described in this book would be less likely to occur.

I was also surprised to see that the book doesn't make much of Africa as a source of future geopolitical challenges. With rapid population growth expected in a large population and lots of valuable resources at stake, you can certainly build a case that competition for African resources can lead to a lot of geopolitical instability.

Historians are fond of saying that history repeats itself. You can see an example in Germany being involved in playing a major role in the early stages of the first and second world wars. Mr. Friedman takes the repetition concept and applies it by assuming that Japan will repeat a Pearl-Harbor-like sneak attack on the United States. I think he could just as easily argue that Germany will start another European war, but he doesn't think the demographics favor that.

Ultimately, this book assumes that nations won't get any better at resolving their problems peacefully in ways to produce more social and economic benefits for everyone. I hope that assumption is mistaken.
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4.0 out of 5 stars An interesting view April 12 2013
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
I like the way the author uses prior evidence to base his forecasts for the future. Currently relative to the international situation in Korea. I also appreciated hearing an Americans view of world events and learned a lot about American history. I would read other of this author's books.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful
By P. Nita
Format:Hardcover
I appreciate George Friedman for his geopolitical know-how and his analysis about current and past political events. When it comes to future forecast some of his predictions seem very far fetched, science fiction like. In 'Star Wars' inspired chapters, the author describes epic battles between America, Japan and Turkey(sic!), occuring in the outer space and with rocket attacks launched from the Moon, not very far ahead from today, in less than fifty years. On the other hand, the author doesn't consider global issues such as climate change, famine and world poverty important enough for the next century to be discussed in this book.
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Most recent customer reviews
3.0 out of 5 stars A "meh" read
If you are a fan of George Friedman, I am sure this book will not disappoint you. However, there are some glaring issues with this book:

I found the writing style to be... Read more
Published on Feb 14 2011 by YM
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent
Anti American doomsdayers that relish in the thought of China taking over the world will not enjoy this book, and probably find numerous points to take exception with, but any one... Read more
Published on Sep 14 2010 by P. R. Kennedy
3.0 out of 5 stars Wild predictions for future
Let just say that I shook my head so many times in disagreements that I wanted to drop the book, but I kept on reading because some of his ideas do have some validity. Read more
Published on Jun 9 2010 by T. Bui
4.0 out of 5 stars Good service & good book
Very reliable seller, I received the book in perfect condition.
The book is very interesting and fun to read.
I recommend both this seller and the book.
Thank you.
Published on Sep 19 2009 by Amazon Man
3.0 out of 5 stars Far Fetched ...
An interesting read, from someone who is obviously Pro-American. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but the author is far too optimist about America's future. Read more
Published on Sep 14 2009 by GRH "Ex WHA Jet"
4.0 out of 5 stars How ironic...
...that the most intriguing and impactful elements of this book proved to be insights into our past and present. Read more
Published on Mar 30 2009 by Schmadrian
5.0 out of 5 stars The 1000-yard Stare
Stratfor's Friedman does geopolitics better than anyone. Yet I thought a 100-year projection for Planet Earth was a reach, even for him. Read more
Published on Mar 15 2009 by August C. Visman
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