The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century [Paperback]

 

 

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No one can forecast what the weather will be next week in most parts of the world, why would anyone think that forecasting what nations will do in detail over 70 years is possible? George Friedman doesn't think it's possible either, but the exercise presents the opportunity to identify sources of potential future conflicts and alliances on the geopolitical stage. Thinking about those issues is well worth considering. An ounce of prevention may just help avoid tons of regret in some cases.

George Friedman believes that considerations of potential military defense and offense, access to needed raw materials and markets, demographics, political strengths and weaknesses, technology, and national economic interests can be combined to imagine how future leaders will see their situations and how well they will be able to handle old and new challenges vis-à-vis their neighbors and competitors. From those sources, he identifies factors that will probably be important which include:

1. Increasing importance of having access to shipping via the oceans due to ever-expanding global trade.

2. Continued U.S. dominance of the oceans.

3. Political and social weaknesses in China and Russia that will cause those nations to weaken and fragment.

4. Decline in population size in developed countries requiring pro-immigration strategies to stay competitive.

5. Emergence of space-based warfare and energy generation to shift the basis of national competition.

6. Robotics replacing less-skilled workers throughout the world creating a wave of unemployment.

7. Aggressive geographical expansions of influence by nations which are bounded by weak countries.

8. A continued dominance by the United States except in controlling the regions in the country that are filled with Mexican-Americans.

As a result, he projects an end to armed conflicts between Muslims and Americans on religious grounds; a new cold war with Russia; fragmentation of China's economic power and military strength; the rise of regional power in nations like Turkey, Japan, and Poland; a space-based war aimed at the United States by Japan and Turkey; the rise of space-based energy as the economic underpinning of prosperity; and a civil crisis in the Southwestern U.S.

Who knows if these things will happen? They could.

I felt that the main weakness in his argument was failing to consider the possible development of a strong regional block involving both North and South America over the next 20 years. Such a block would have tremendous access to technology, resources, positive demographics, and be easier to keep secure than trying to project power around the world. With such a strong base, many of the issues that concern Mr. Friedman about U.S. interests would be considerably less pressing. If the U.S. were not as aggressive in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, some of the conflicts described in this book would be less likely to occur.

I was also surprised to see that the book doesn't make much of Africa as a source of future geopolitical challenges. With rapid population growth expected in a large population and lots of valuable resources at stake, you can certainly build a case that competition for African resources can lead to a lot of geopolitical instability.

Historians are fond of saying that history repeats itself. You can see an example in Germany being involved in playing a major role in the early stages of the first and second world wars. Mr. Friedman takes the repetition concept and applies it by assuming that Japan will repeat a Pearl-Harbor-like sneak attack on the United States. I think he could just as easily argue that Germany will start another European war, but he doesn't think the demographics favor that.

Ultimately, this book assumes that nations won't get any better at resolving their problems peacefully in ways to produce more social and economic benefits for everyone. I hope that assumption is mistaken.

I appreciate George Friedman for his geopolitical know-how and his analysis about current and past political events. When it comes to future forecast some of his predictions seem very far fetched, science fiction like. In 'Star Wars' inspired chapters, the author describes epic battles between America, Japan and Turkey(sic!), occuring in the outer space and with rocket attacks launched from the Moon, not very far ahead from today, in less than fifty years. On the other hand, the author doesn't consider global issues such as climate change, famine and world poverty important enough for the next century to be discussed in this book.

...that the most intriguing and impactful elements of this book proved to be insights into our past and present.

I learned a lot from the initial chapters of 'The Next 100 Years'. Friedman writes quite plainly about aspects of the world we live in, and offered suggestions that explained so much. As I was reading these portions, I couldn't help but think how different things might be if more laypeople were actually aware of the reasons behind why things are the way they are. They might rail against most of what he declares, but perhaps a more cogent perspective might aid us in a time of partisan endeavours.

His prognostications are, at the very least, entertaining. And really, saying 'No way!' to them is as silly as it would have been had he maintained that everything he wrote was going to unfold precisely as described. We don't know, we simply cannot know. But I appreciate the effort that's gone into this 'Book of Predictions' and respect his overview.

Naturally, there are some glaring omissions, as there is the tendency to see everything from the perspective of America.

For example, as a Canuck, the fact that Canada is FINALLY mentioned at page 240 (of a 253 page publication), and then only here because of a 'bi-cultural' reference, especially considering Friedman continually references North America, made me laugh, shake my head...and then understand just how blinkered he is. (No matter how he justifies his US-centric approach, it doesn't mitigate this clear tendency towards hubris.) I'm still trying to rationalize how talking so much of 'North America', including the conflict between the US and Mexico at the end of the book can exclude the other country in that designation, exclude it almost entirely. Strange. (But then, not at all.)

And it would be easy to label his broad, sweeping 'predictions' as simplistic and facile, given that he's chosen to concentrate on only certain elements of possibility. Maybe for me, this book should have been twice as big and he should have taken on a collaborator to 'fill in the spaces'; I would have found it a far more rewarding read.

I'd highly recommend this book. If for no other reason than it will provide all manner of inspiration to question what is habitually glossed over.

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3.0 out of 5 stars A "meh" read
If you are a fan of George Friedman, I am sure this book will not disappoint you. However, there are some glaring issues with this book:

I found the writing style to be... Read more

Published 15 months ago by YM

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent
Anti American doomsdayers that relish in the thought of China taking over the world will not enjoy this book, and probably find numerous points to take exception with, but any one... Read more

Published 20 months ago by P. R. Kennedy

3.0 out of 5 stars Wild predictions for future
Let just say that I shook my head so many times in disagreements that I wanted to drop the book, but I kept on reading because some of his ideas do have some validity. Read more

Published 23 months ago by T. Bui

4.0 out of 5 stars Good service & good book
Very reliable seller, I received the book in perfect condition.
The book is very interesting and fun to read.
I recommend both this seller and the book.
Thank you.

Published on Sep 19 2009 by Amazon Man

3.0 out of 5 stars Far Fetched ...
An interesting read, from someone who is obviously Pro-American. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but the author is far too optimist about America's future. Read more

Published on Sep 14 2009 by GRH "Ex WHA Jet"

5.0 out of 5 stars The 1000-yard Stare
Stratfor's Friedman does geopolitics better than anyone. Yet I thought a 100-year projection for Planet Earth was a reach, even for him. Read more

Published on Mar 15 2009 by August C. Visman

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