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The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street
 
 
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The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street [Paperback]

Thomas A. Bass (Author)
2.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (32 customer reviews)
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Using a computer to beat Wall Street from afar is, arguably, the new American dream. While it will remain just that for most of us, an offbeat gang of academics turned financial wizards is showing it can be done. Led by acclaimed physicists Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard, the Santa Fe-based Prediction Company has proven since its 1991 founding in an adobe bungalow furnished with plastic lawn chairs and top-of-the-line Sun workstations that it is indeed possible to make millions in the world's financial markets by anticipating trends and developing software that automatically capitalizes on them. In The Predictors, Thomas A. Bass colorfully relates their tale of fiscal triumph--and reveals in the process how even an unorthodox group of antibusiness intellectuals in far-off New Mexico can make the world's biggest institutions sit up and take notice.

Long esteemed in the scientific community, Farmer and Packard have become legendary in hacker circles since their failed attempt to beat the roulette tables in Las Vegas with toe-operated computers was chronicled in Bass's well-regarded 1985 book called The Eudaemonic Pie. This time, though, the two hit the jackpot with their cutting-edge computer programs and the company they created to trade German marks, Chicago commodities, Japanese treasury bonds, Texas oil futures, and New York securities. Bass's prose is a bit flowery at times, but his perceptive you-are-there account is nonetheless entertaining and sure to cement the pair's reputation as today's ultimate masters of "phynance," the successful, and now oft-copied, merger of physics and finance. --Howard Rothman --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

From Library Journal

In 1991, physicists Doyne Farmer, Norman Packard, and Jim McGill established the Prediction Company in Santa Fe, NM, intending to use their knowledge of chaos theory (the study of complex systems) to develop predictive models and automated black-box systems for beating financial markets worldwide. That they succeeded is only part of the story, the more interesting part of this tale being its human side. In Wired contributor Bass's account, we see the primary characters deal with a broad array of charlatans and geniuses, learn from their successes and failures, grow to appreciate the problems inherent in traditional economic theory, and become adept businessmen and managers. Useful as a primer in chaos theory as well as the various challenges that face start-up firms and the complexity of financial markets, this marvelous story should interest readers in both public and academic libraries.
-ANorman B. Hutcherson, Kern Cty. Lib., Bakersfield, CA
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.
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Customer Reviews

32 Reviews
5 star:
 (6)
4 star:
 (6)
3 star:
 (3)
2 star:
 (9)
1 star:
 (8)
 
 
 
 
 
Average Customer Review
2.8 out of 5 stars (32 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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2.0 out of 5 stars Interesting Topic not Handled Well, April 12 2004
By 
Michael Haftl (San Francisco, CA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street (Paperback)
I agree with many of the other reviewers. This book is 90% filler. Instead of discussing the topic at hand, we are repeatedly bombarded with a desciption of the weather, the El Paso fiesta season, etc... This is a story about a group of (in my opinion, uninteresting) characters, and not a book on Investing or Science. Not recommended.
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2.0 out of 5 stars Another book about a start-up, Nov 28 2003
By 
"lukeo" (Portland, OR USA) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street (Paperback)
This book is less about the market and more about the personal relationships and dealings of a business start-up. I'm surprised that the book lists its category as BUSINESS/SCIENCE when truly it lies in the former. I guess mentioning chaos theory, neural networks and genetic algorithms was all that was needed.

Regardless, it was an entertaining story about a group of physicists, being totally ignorant of the market, decide that they can predict the market. The storyline follows what I would consider typical of any start-up; the fights, arguments, doubts, meetings galore, etc... As I said, entertaining but not too much different from any other story about a start-up.

My two biggest complaints:

1) The back cover from the San Francisco Chronicle calls this book "one of the best books ever written about commodities, currency, and derivatives trading." I don't think they even read the book since this book isn't about trading but all about the traders.

2) The over use of descriptive fashion and landscape. I lost track of how many times we needed to be told who was wearing what and how blue the sky was in Santa Fe. It really got annoying after awhile.

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4.0 out of 5 stars You would learn a thing or two,, April 20 2003
By 
Shikhar Srivastava "Curious" (Waltham, MA USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
This review is from: The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street (Paperback)
Well I picked up the book as I am interested in complexity science. Most of the reviews here are quite harsh, and probably it was bad expectations management on writer's / publisher's part.

Even though the book sometimes is promoted as an investing book, it is not. It is not meant for day traders who just expect to discover next holy grail of financial markets reading such books. There is no holy grail in markets, but thats another thing. With that said, it may be clear that it is not a TRADING / INVESTIING book.

The book is story of two renowned physicists turning to use their physics, specifically chaos theory, to model financial market. The story part is dealt with great care. I am sure you learn a thing or two reading this book. This book was quite reasy to read and time I spent reading was worth more than had I spent reading a Grisham novel or watching some stupid soap on TV. It is real life here folks.

Bass is not a novelist so I did not expect him write a literary piece here. He has written a true story in a very good way and struggle of Farmer and Packard in estabilshing a company and utilizing their knowldge in a productive way is very cleverly depicted. There are tonnes of other relevant information that come and go, and an intelligent reader would surely pick something here. There is a lot of current history explored here.

With that said, this is NOT a book for the NEXT TRADING SYSTEM, nor does it preach that their system was PERFECT.

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