The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization [Hardcover]

 

 

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This is an absolutely outstanding book - passionate, original, and easily accessible. It's far better than Homer-Dixon's The Ingenuity Gap, which was in itself groundbreaking. Homer-Dixon has a striking ability to bring together diverse ideas and research into one larger and compelling theme. He is also one of the few people in the world who really grasps the complexities and dangers of the human predicament in its totality. Many readers won't like this book's argument - that some form of crisis in the future is now extremely likely, that we'd best get ready for it, and that (if we're lucky) it might ultimately produce some good - but after finishing this book I find these conclusions inescapable and largely correct.

The book is rich with new ideas, on practically every page. I do wish the author had given us more on how "open-source" architectures on the Internet could be the basis for new forms of democracy, and for mobilization of non-extremists, but clearly he's just beginning to work through these ideas.

If you want to know about the role of energy scarcity in the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, the sources of modern capitalism's unchallengeable obsession with economic growth, the causes of people's widespread denial of our global crisis, the relationship between rising complexity and social breakdown, or the real story on global income inequality - the list of subjects covered goes on and on - this book is unmatched. But don't expect that it won't challenge some of your preconceptions. The book is definitely not for intellectual sissies, nor for people whose minds are already made up.

Very few writers are capable of integrating interdisciplinary material at this level, while making the resulting book accessible and eminently readable. The Upside of Down is a tremendous accomplishment, and a very timely warning that all is not well with the world.

Homer-Dixon's thesis - catagenesis - is an analysis of natural cycles of growth, decline and renewal as applied to civilizations. The concern at the present time is that we appear to be approaching natural limits on a variety of fronts, and that these tectonic stresses could interact with each other to produce far greater problems for global society than any one issue would by itself.

Homer-Dixon discusses five major tectonic stresses in detail - population growth, energy depletion and declining energy return on energy invested (EROEI), environmental degradation, climate change and financial instability - and also considers the effect of two multipliers - the escalating destructive power of small groups and the rising speed and connectivity of our socioeconomic system. His explanation of the importance of network architecture in relation to our highly interconnected support systems, and the vital role of resilience in network stability, is exceptionally important for an understanding of our current socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

The application of thermodynamics to the formation and longevity of social structures, using the Roman empire as the prime example, is particularly relevant to understanding the challenges facing our own civilization. The many examples Homer-Dixon uses from his own travels serve to illustrate elegantly the points he makes, and indeed connecting the personal with the conceptual is a great strength of this book. It is very highly recommended.

The key question in this book is raised in the very middle: "Why don't we face reality?" A major reason is that we are groping in a fog to learn what that reality is. Homer-Dixon likens our society to a driver careering along a country road in a dense fog. We can barely see what's ahead, but we're somehow confident that no mishap will befall us. We've gotten this far safely. As we drive, we're guided by the mantra of "endless economic growth". We have some idea where we've been, but remain uncertain about what lies ahead. Worse, we don't seem to care. Ignoring the warning signs indicating that all might not be well we continue along our course. In this excellent study of how our society is progressing and where it's likely going, the author clearly outlines the various options before us and what actions we can take to prevent serious disruptions.

The book is a call for preparation. Resilience is what our outlook and our policies should undertake to prevent disasters that we cannot handle. Having observed and reflected on these issues for several years, Homer-Dixon concludes that major difficulties lie ahead. We cannot avoid them - they're already here or loom in the near future. He lists some of the obvious ones: terrorism is now a part of life, climate change beyond our experience is already with us, and economic and social disruption causes have already been pinpointed. His model used as the basis of assessment is the Roman Empire. He cites three examples of what the Empire accomplished, the Colosseum, the road and aqueduct networks and the Temple of Jupiter at Baalbek, Lebanon. All these enterprises required immense amounts of energy, yet a society without engineering schools achieved them all successfully. It worked only so long as the energy was available and applied efficiently. Our schools taught us that the Romans built their imperium on slavery, but Homer-Dixon shows that concept to be false. Oxen pulled the 256 carts of material required by the Colosseum and free peasant farmers supplied the basic energy needs. The Empire collapsed only when the energy required failed. We need to understand what can be learned from that Empire offer, and Homer-Dixon demonstrates how pertinent the lessons are today.

The author's formula for assessment is EROI - Energy Return On Investment. We've been profligate in energy use, and it's future availability is a major concern of the his. "Peak oil" has been the topic of so many books and articles, it should be old news. The author notes how the petroleum industry and those dependent on it keep up a continuous barrage of denial propaganda to discourage us from believing that evident fact. The "globalised" economy was supposed to reduce the distinction between rich and poor. Not only is it having the opposite effect, but it's increasing the consumption of energy in the process. While a number of recent books stress the threats posed by environmental change, Homer-Dixon sees that as but one element in a far larger picture. He deals with a full range of pressures building up to threaten society. He likens them to tectonic stresses likely to snap unexpectedly at any time.

Unlike some books making forecasts or offering timetables of potential catastrophe, Homer-Dixon's more circumspect. He's more concerned with demonstrating that the kinds of "growth" we've experienced cannot endure. What and when surprise setbacks occur is of less importance to him than how we adjust to them. He's not addressing a small coterie of "movers and shakers" with this work His prose style is just short of that of a story-telling narrative. He means for all of us, taxpayers, policy-makers and even academics and scientists, to participate in the development and preparation of new sets of options for survival. We will all be effected by the unfolding events. While this may seem that the author's "Down" is inevitable and final, he prefixed it with "Upside" for a reason. His opening depicts the destruction of a city - San Francisco in the 1906 earthquake and fire. The city didn't collapse and die, but recovery meant a new approach to disaster planning. We must follow that example, or our collapse will be more severe. It will be global and possibly all-consuming. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

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5.0 out of 5 stars Incisive, lucid and thought-provoking
Thomas Homer-Dixon delivers again. He presents the luminous insights that come with robust scholarship in a captivating and entertaining prose. Read more

Published 17 months ago by ceciliacormier

5.0 out of 5 stars Can we expect any good future?
This is the second book (printed in 2006) by professor Homer-Dixon that I have studied. In the very innovative way, among other topics, he uses EROI (Expected Return on... Read more

Published on Feb 20 2010 by Regnal

4.0 out of 5 stars Read this book
We tend to assume that our civilization is different from the many failed civilizations that preceded it. Read more

Published on Aug 31 2009 by David Thompson

5.0 out of 5 stars Little up...a lot of down.
As a Canadian it's easy to endorce Dr. Homer-Dixon's tretise on the way of the world. As a lay person, unfamiliar with ancient history beyond that which I remember from high... Read more

Published on Jun 19 2009 by James R. Cable

2.0 out of 5 stars Readable description of major concepts in global warming, but ...
... the author spends way too much time focussing on himself. This egocentric perspective detracts from the central message of the book (which I believe in). Read more

Published on Oct 8 2007 by Fan of Fiction

1.0 out of 5 stars The Downside of Homer-Dixon
Don't waste your time on this book.

Instead, read Heat, or The Weather Makers, or Field Notes from a Catastrophe, or The Revenge of Gaia, or even (if you can find it)... Read more

Published on Mar 4 2007 by Michael Wendt

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