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The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future [Hardcover]

Laurence C. Smith
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
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Book Description

Sep 28 2010 0525951814 978-0525951810
A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience, distilling cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization.

The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, our environment is degrading, and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up. So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The result is both good news and bad: Eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly prosperous, powerful, and politically stable, while those closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding.

The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. But Smith offers more than a compendium of statistics and studies- he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim, collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book. It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity.

Packed with stunning photographs, original maps, and informative tables, this is the most authoritative, balanced, and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our children.


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Review

"[The World in 2050] is a lively and impressive book, among the first in what promises to be an important publishing category, the explication of how the human landscape will be altered by artificially triggered climate change."
-Wall Street Journal

"Smith's planetary palm-reading would be impressive enough, but he also managed to pull it off with literary gusto. He combines a wide-angle-lens analysis reminiscent of Jared Diamond with a knack for narrative, including tales of numerous visits to the Arctic."
-New Scientist

"Cleverly executed."
-Mother Jones

"One of the most head-turning books I've ever come across recently."
-Thomas PM Barnett, World Politics Review

"A charismatic rising star vividly relates the big challenges facing the world."
-Jared Diamond, author of the Pulitzer Prize winner Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse

"This is a blockbuster of clear argument, sophisticated use of multiple empirical sources, and cogent writing that makes a convincing case for the emergence of the deep Global North as the main beneficiary of emerging climatic and economic trends. Intelligently discussing the future requires exactly the balance of discerning empirical analysis and wise interpretive judgment to be found here."
-John Agnew, Professor of Geography UC, Los Angeles

About the Author

LAURENCE C. SMITH is vice chairman and professor of geography and professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA. In 2006, he briefed Congress on the likely impacts of northern climate change, and in 2007 his work appeared prominently in the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He lives in Los Angeles with his wife, drinking water imported from hundreds of miles away.

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Customer Reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
4.4 out of 5 stars
Most helpful customer reviews
6 of 7 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
Shame on this reviewer for unfairly trashing this politically neutral, carefully researched and footnoted, and scientific book as "corporatist" or somehow favoring the global trends it identifies. If anything, Smith actually comes out AGAINST developing the Alberta Tar Sands, which he calls a "nightmare" and compares to Mordor (pp. 189-191). Nor does he ever mention "wonderful opportunities" for multi-national corporations in the Northwest Passage. Dr. Smith also shows that our current growth in material consumption is not sustainable, in contrast to the reviewer's assertion that he somehow favors this. This reviewer obviously did not even read the first few chapters of the book which project a very difficult, undesirable future indeed for many parts of the world.

Exploring where current global trends in globalization, resource depletion, and climate change are leading us is NOT the same thing as advocacy. In fact, Dr. Smith does a superb job of sticking to the scientific basis of how these very potent global forces are changing our world both for worse (e.g. species extinctions, continued fossil-fuel use) as well as better (e.g. falling birth rates and poverty), and keeps his personal feelings quiet until the final page of the book. Then, far from cheerleading the big trends he has identified, he challenges the reader to do something about them, asking "What kind of world do you want?" and extolling the power of societal choice.

Smith's objectivity and nuance in discussing such controversial topics as globalization, population, and climate change is a refreshing change from hysterical partisans screaming that either the natural world is doomed or that big-business should plow ahead with no regard for people and the environment. You may not like where current trends are headed, but at least this author sticks to scientific and historical facts, an honest reading of others' work, and challenges his readers to decide for themselves--in sharp contrast to this reviewer.
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4.0 out of 5 stars Good book overall May 21 2013
By D O
Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase
I really did enjoy this book. Its puts a few things into perspective on climate change, population growth and resource use. He used scientific notes to prove his thoughts and theories. I however did find the author's rant at the end a bit annoying.
Overall a good read.
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4.0 out of 5 stars Enthusiasm for the tale of Arctic change Nov 6 2012
By Brian Griffith TOP 500 REVIEWER
Format:Paperback
Smith shows great energy and enthusiasm tracking down the changes, statistics, trends and possibilities for both the South and the North. He lays out the biggest forces for global change, and then focuses on nations bordering the Arctic Ocean. In scientific sea voyages, tours of Siberian petro-cities, or interviews with Aboriginal leaders across the Far North, he explores what could happen as the Earth warms up. The issues are sobering, but clearly many northern people in Alaska, Canada's Nunavut, Greenland, Scandinavia or Russia, are excited about the future.
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