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A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It [Paperback]

Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
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Book Description

Sept. 15 2010 0745330533 978-0745330532
It often seems that different crises are competing to devastate civilization. This book argues that financial meltdown, dwindling oil reserves, terrorism and food shortages need to be considered as part of the same ailing system. Most accounts of our contemporary global crises such as climate change, or the threat of terrorism, focus on one area, or another, to the exclusion of others. Nafeez Ahmed argues that the unwillingness of experts to look outside their specialisations explains why there is so much disagreement and misunderstanding about particular crises. This book attempts to investigate all of these crises, not as isolated events, but as trends and processes that belong to a single global system. We are therefore not dealing with a "clash of civilizations," as Huntington argued. Rather, we are dealing with a fundamental crisis of civilization itself. This book provides a stark warning of the consequences of failing to take a broad view of the problems facing the world.

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[Ahmed's] arguments are in the main forceful and well-sourced, with particularly good sections on agribusiness, US policies of 'energy security', and what he terms the 'securitisation' of ordinary life by Western governments. -- Guardian How can a discussion of the all too familiar crises of our time be a hopeful book? By combining a microscopic dissection of the structure of each with a telescopic view of how they weave together in a whole system. If the myriad international conferences and programs haven't worked, it isn't that we have to try harder but that we have to confront the whole free of conventional constraints. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed confronts the whole. -- Richard Levins, John Rock Professor of Population Sciences, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University; author, Evolution in Changing Environments This important analysis exposes vital truths and challenges much conventional wisdom. It deserves to be widely read. -- Mark Curtis, Honorary Research Fellow, University of Strathclyde; former Head of Policy, Action Aid and Christian Aid; former Research Fellow, Royal Institute of International Affairs; author, Web of Deceit: Britain's Real Role in the World and Unpeople: Britain's Secret Human Rights Abuses This is an important book. There has been much discussion already about climate change, peak oil, the cost of food and overpopulation, the global financial crisis busting neoliberal capitalism, the rise of violent extremism, and the containment of the so-called war on terror. But this is the first book to systematically explore their interconnections and place them within a single comprehensive narrative. That makes it a very worthwhile read for policy-makers everywhere. -- Rt. Hon. Michael Meacher MP, UK Minister of State for the Environment (1997-2003); Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Security (1975-79); Under-Secretary of State for Industry (1974-75) Few thinkers weave as many threads into a tapestry as Nafeez Ahmed has done so superbly in this book. Those of us who seek to operate within the form of capitalism that has evolved today would do well to ask ourselves a very big question. Are we wasting our time? If it is true that only root-to-branch rewriting of the global economic operating manual can save society from an unliveable future, shouldn't we be putting our weight behind that re-engineering process before it is too late? -- Dr. Jeremy Leggett, UK Department of Trade & Industry's Renewables Advisory Board (2002-2006); CEO, Solarcentury, member of UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security; author, Half Gone and The Carbon War Nafeez Ahmed's book confronts the reader with the stark message that life as we know it is unsustainable. It provides a chilling enumeration of the existential challenges humanity faces, and can only by qualified as optimistic in the sense that it does not leave a single illusion in place. A must-read but not as bed-time reading. -- Kees van der Pijl, Professor of International Relations, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex; Chair of Department of International Relations and Director of Centre for Global Political Economy (2000-2006); Leverhulme Major Research Fellow; author, Modes of Foreign Relations and Political Economy (3 volumes) A staggeringly comprehensive bird's-eye view of the gaping cracks that are appearing in global industrial civilization. Ahmed weaves a context that makes current economic and geopolitical events comprehensible. If you want to understand why the world is coming apart at the seams and what we can do to lay the foundations for a sane, peaceful, and sustainable society, read this book. -- Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute; author, The Party's Over, Powerdown and Peak Everything Dr. Ahmed presents the clearest synthesis to date of the systemic problems facing human civilization. There is no shortage of popular texts on climate change, economic challenges, energy scarcity, and terrorism, but this work is the first to effectively integrate these diverse issues into a compelling and unified system - one that is both accessible to a broad audience yet grounded in rigorous academic research. -- Jeff Vail, Former US Department of the Interior Counterterrorism Analyst; former US Air Force Intelligence Officer for global energy infrastructure; author, A Theory of Power In this magisterial exposition of the multiple intersecting challenges facing humanity in our century Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed points to real solutions. Armed with the depth of knowledge and the courage demonstrated in this work we can and will construct the other world that is possible. All of us, but especially the youth of our planet will be empowered by reading this book. -- David Schwartzman, Professor of Biology, Howard University, Washington DC; author, Life, Temperature and the Earth: the self-organizing biosphere

About the Author

Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development in London. He has taught international relations, contemporary history, empire and globalisation at the School of Global Studies, University of Sussex and the Politics & History Unit, Brunel University. His previous books include The War on Truth: Disinformation and The Anatomy of Terrorism (2005) and Behind the War on Terror: Western Secret Strategy and the Struggle for Iraq (2003).


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4.0 out of 5 stars Political Science as Bacteriology July 4 2013
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed separates the wheat from the chaff, not to mention the clinical truth from the political froth, in his analysis of what the human has wrought during its relatively brief but nevertheless by now disastrous turn as prima donna on the planet's stage. Political science, religion, and philosophy all take a back seat to the new hybrid juggernaut on the planetary block: as a species, we have very recently undone ourselves thanks to the combination of our technological/scientific prowess and our psychological/political stupidity. Bottom line: the nutrients in the Petri dish (primarily carbon fuels, not to mention spiritual fuels) are truly on the verge of exhaustion, and as a result so are we.

After diligently, objectively and exhaustively identifying the problems, as a solution Mr. Mossadeq Ahmed can honestly only call upon nothing more than simple common sense, combined with an invitation to art and imagination, and an indispensable, courageous dose of 'all you need is love'...which means that probably nobody, particularly among the rationalist, materialist, militarist or fundamentalist elites can or will listen, never mind understand...which substantiates his original thesis...which means that by now perhaps only a really kick-ass climate or nuclear-war induced catastrophe/disaster(s) might move things along a bit.

It's probably no accident that I'm the first (and probably the last) to review this extraordinary book.
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Amazon.com: 4.5 out of 5 stars  11 reviews
45 of 48 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars This is Three Quarter's of a Great Book Oct. 19 2010
By Norman Dyer - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
This is probably the most important book you can read today if you want to learn about the greatest threats to humanity. It is full of facts, documents and testimony about the consequences of our food production shortfalls, energy shortages, financial instabilities, military/terrorist battles, the political moves to remove human rights from the general populous, and even about climate change. Its key strength is the peer reviews by a dozen world experts, inside and outside of power. The author deserves applause for bringing to our attention so many interconnected, on-going, accelerating processes. He reviews the issues already out there and adds some little-disclosed military and political agenda of consequence. He tries to connect the dots, and to some extent prioritizes the problems with analysis and suggested solutions.

The first chapter is so scary that it is likely many readers will not make it through the book. It brings together the facts and analysis on global warming that have frightened the Pentagon and all European governments since at least 2004. The prognosis is so bleak that all the other chapters seem trivial by comparison, though they cover some very dark problems (genocide, martial law for the masses, large scale detention camps, global dictators, another great depression, mass starvation, acute resource shortages). He could have reversed the order of the chapters to allow the reader to better prepare for the "big one", but he had his reasons.

The author develops a social and philosophical analysis which distills to a list of "key structural problems". These include monetary systems that impose ever greater debt, militaries that serve the aggressive desires of corporations to seize foreign resources, capitalism that collapses all dimensions to a single dimension (dollars) thereby squeezing out ethics, control structures that intentionally minimize wages in colonies to prevent those nations from becoming anything more than a source for raw materials, and defining nature as a resource rather than as a life support system. For the most part they are correct and unassailable. But he thoroughly skirts one key factor in the root cause of all of the great problems he covers: Over population. He strains to hold blameless the masses of humanity that have, of course, needed food, which needed farming, which needed land, which cleared the land of nature, which caused deforestation and species extinction and soil erosion. Over population has been a serious problem since 600AD when China started to experience collapses on its millet economy. By 900AD the rice paddy had doubled food production, so population started growing again, but at the expense of thousands of species cleared off the land forever. Europe was collapsing by 1350AD with food and wood shortages, so epidemics began. Europe was "saved" by the "discovery" of the americas, which were pillaged for 5 centuries, allowing Europe to grow populations even deeper into unsustainability. Because the author refused to do the homework on ecology (contrast with Jared Diamond, for example), he ends up romanticizing nature as some amazing fabric that can blissfully support 12 billion people (his number) with abundance of food, water, shelter, beauty and high consumption rates, even though at 7 billion humanity has already slaughtered off 80% of the nature we started with (UN Millennium Ecological Survey, 2005).

Of course one can choose a topic and decide what's out of scope for a given book. That's completely forgivable. But the very "analysis" he puts forth always stops right short of the effects of high populations, even while admitting strong dependence upon them. When the human population remained under the natural carrying capacity, none of the global crises he lists were even possible. They all emerge from the consequences of too many people for the earth to sustain. Only when there is "surplus population" above those that do the farming is it possible to build an army, build a metropolis, build a financial empire. In fact, overpopulation is a conscious strategy of those who covet power: Only when people are desperate are they willing to subordinate to a ruler - so make them desperate for food, water, and land via overpopulation. Farmers grow surplus food, the army comes to collect it and safe-keep it in the graineries, and then food is dispensed out only to those who do the king's bidding. That's where it all begins. Politicians gain power as people become dependent upon them. Most of the crazy politics we experience today are awkward attempts at dealing with the conflicts of resource shortages brought about directly by high population numbers. This in no way forgives all the war mongers from their murders, nor any of the other crimes the author so aptly discusses. It is not a question of "taking sides", blaming the poor or the rich. The greatest crime of the rich is exploitation. The greatest crime of the poor is over population. The greatest crime of the middle class is to enable the other two. Plenty of blame for everyone. Its just that we cannot fix a problem until we get to the root cause of it. That is why his fixes are so anemic - the root cause is missing, so there's no point of departure from which to build a strong, sound fix. This deficiency can turn an otherwise great effort into something grossly misleading to his followers and/or into something providing the fodder to his adversaries to discredit his work.

While most people of the world appreciate that harmony with nature is essential to sustainability, rulers don't want that message out there at all. So they have redefined cultures with nature regarded as something to be conquered, exploited, consumed; while "harmony with nature" was declared pagan and primitive. The author's avoidance of an ecological basis (which he admits is needed) leaves him arguing against a flawed ideology with yet another flawed ideology. With only one more good chapter, bringing in ecology/life_sciences as a basis for sustainability, and thus for ethics, the author could have shot down the current ideological flaws soundly, with science and a firm footing in a universal embrace of life on earth. But to do so he would have needed to bring in the concept of natural carrying capacity, and then step through the consequences of overstepping that bound, tracing the causal links down to the set of obscene problems that we are now wallowing in. Yes, this is three quarters of a great book!

Read this book. Yes, definitely! Then read a good ecology book to complete the story and plan a realistic course toward solutions.
Norm Dyer
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Beyond 5 Stars - Superb Individual Effort Oct. 25 2011
By Robert David STEELE Vivas - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
In its own way this book is every bit as good as such classics as The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology) or The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters (New in Paper) and I am also reminded of Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of Modern Civilization, all books I have reviewed here at Amazon, mirrored (often with material added) at Phi Beta Iota the Public Intelligence Blog.

I was tempted to keep the book at five stars because the author tip-toes around the core issue of our day, institutionalized corruption. While he opens by saying he is striving to address the "linkage between political violence and social crisis in the context of imperial social systems," the word imperial is as close as he gets to calling out the global criminals that used to be called the elite, and their equally complicit enablers, the political class. Which reminds me of another important book, The Global Class War: How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future - and What It Will Take to Win It Back as well as the more recent Griftopia: A Story of Bankers, Politicians, and the Most Audacious Power Grab in American History.

The author missed an extremely important work, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility, Report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, also available free online as a PDF, so I will list the ten high level threats to humanity identified and prioritized there, because it helps put his own stelar reflections in perspective:

01 Poverty
02 Infectious Disease
03 Environmental Degradation
04 Inter-State Conflict
05 Civil War
06 Genocide
07 Other Atrocities (I now include Goldman Sachs and other banks in this category)
08 Proliferation
09 Terrorism
10 Transnational Crime

Where the book really shines, and the thrust that keeps this book in my top 10% (above 5 stars), is the author's focus on how the global economy has gotten out of synch with the natural order. While others have written important books about ecological economics, natural capitalism, the future of life (all book titles to search for, I have reviewed them), this book really makes the direct connection between a corruption of capitalism and democracy, and the realities of life on Earth. Parsing Trotsky on war, I like to say "You may not be interested in reality, but reality is assuredly interested in you."

Early on the author focuses on our failure to ask the right questions.

His core argument is extremely intelligence and deep with integrity. Summarized:

01 Global crises are integral to the ideology, structure, and logic ofthe global political economy

02 Therefore, policy reforms just will not do it -- deep changes to the *system* are required.

03 All of the different crises are inter-locked, we fail deeply when we try to treat them in isolation.

Oddly enough, I had been intrigued by an earlier reference to the need to revisit Karl Marx (in What Comes After Money?: Essays from Reality Sandwich on Transforming Currency and Community, only to find here that the author has advanced our understanding of Marx by bringing to light the human consequences of imperial social systems.

The author mentions threebooks. I have not read them but want to share active links to all four as they strike me as very helpful.

Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet
Parecon: Life After Capitalism
Age of Consent: A Manifesto for a New World Order

He also mentions his own 2009 work, Violence of Empire, sadly it does not appear in the Amazon US database.

His bottom line is clear--capitalism in its present form is killing us--but I certainly consider his research, his arguments, compelling. We have created climate change, energy scarcity, food scarcity and so on.

While there are a number of books on the poisoning of life by industrial approaches to agriculture, household appliances, and so on, the author does well in focusing on the ecological consequences of corrupt decisions across many industries. I give him very high marks for focusing -- long before Occupy Wall Street -- on the faulty economic system that underlys our current crisis.

I hugely admire his focus on the "systemitization of debt."

The author correctly discounts terrorism as a fraudulent threat that is also directly linked to the West's over dependence on oil, he neglects to note that it is also related to the west's love affair with 42 of the 44 dictators (43 now) and the west's consistent screwing over of the publics of foreign nations in preference to class warfare and ideological warfare connections to "elites" that are nothing more than well-dressed criminals.

Most interesting to me, the author delves into the possibility that Al Qaeda is actually a proxy mercenary force for the West, used to secure strategic access to energy resources. While I have real doubts about that, I do recollect that the NATO/CIA sponsorship of the Red Brigades is now documented, they were a false flag operation intended to justify fascism in Italy--and it worked for a time.

He is naturally critical of militarization, which addresses symptoms rather than the underlying systemic causes of instability. On this latter point, see my 2011 Thinking About Revolution, in full text online for Google translate, at Phi Beta Iota the Public Intelligence Blog.

After meticulous chapters on each of the major sucking chest wounds the author posits as converging into the perfect storm, he ends the book with fifteen specific recommendations.

QUOTE (216): "At its core, capitalism is a specific relation of production based on the dispossession of labour, a politically constituted social relationship whose historical origins and and structured dynamic have been dissected by...."

I am reminded of Lionel Tiger's excellent The Manufacture Of Evil: Ethics, Evolution, and the Industrial System, and of course the two classics, The Naked Capitalist; a Review and Commentary on Dr. Carroll Quigley's Book: Tragedy and Hope, a History of the World in Our Time and Tragedy & Hope: A History of the World in Our Time.

Ethics matters.

My final thought as I put the book down: "wow."

NOTE: Amazon's ten-link review can be avoided by reading my reviews at Phi Beta Iota where all cited books are linked to their Amazon page. Why Amazon does not understand the foolishness of this limitation is beyond me.
16 of 18 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars The transition to the post-carbon age Oct. 23 2010
By Luc REYNAERT - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback
In this mighty guide N.M.Ahmed analyzes the interconnection between the main aspects of the actual global human civilization crisis, except the world's demographic explosion or eventual pandemics. The dragon to be slain is neoliberal capitalism.

The issues
Climate change: a 6 'C temperature rise could wipe out all life on earth.
Energy scarcity: `peak oil' could lead to permanent high oil prices and new energy wars.
Food insecurity: industrial farming ravages the environment and denudes the soil. Vertically integrated food oligopolies are undercutting the livelihood of subsistence farmers.
Financial instability: financial liberalization and deregulation provoked a worldwide economic and banking crisis to be solved by the government (the taxpayer).
International terrorism: is linked to the world's over-dependence on oil. It is sponsored by Western intelligence in order to destabilize strategically important countries and to redesign actual geographical maps.
Political violence: its `normalization' by the `deep State' could generate `Police States' and curtail seriously civil liberties.

Neoliberalism
Neoliberal (`pure market') policies are unable to recognize long-term human costs by focusing on short-term profit maximization for a super-wealthy oligarchy (an imperial social system). Economically, it drives actually nearly exclusively on oil energy. Its ideology is based on unlimited growth and consumption maximization.

Structural reforms
On the political front, there should be more real democracy (decentralization of power) through community-lead governance.
On the economic front, there should be sustainable (not unlimited) growth.
On the social front, there should be new mechanisms for more equal wealth distribution, land reform and widespread private ownership of productive capital.
On the financial front, there should be a monetary reform based on interest-free loans (only fees for banks) for productive and innovative investments.
On the energy front, there should be large-scale investments in decentralized renewable energy technology (solar, tidal, wind, bio-fuels, geothermal, hydro-electric).
On the agricultural front, there should be smaller localized organic agricultural enterprises.
In one word, there should be a new human model through a cultural reevaluation of the human lifestyle.

Comments
The author could underestimate the demographic explosion which he sees steadying at around 10-11 billion people.
Some of his Marxist concepts are debatable at least. The class struggle is only one element in the history of mankind. Other extremely important elements are power (see below), nationalism (the nation-State) or advances in medicine (vaccines, the pill), chemistry (fertilizers, plastics), technology (atom bomb, computers) or industrialization (spinning wheel, injection engine).
Man's nature (his genetic basis) doesn't change under altered production conditions. All people are materialist consumers (of cars). A class is the sum of its members, nothing less, but also nothing more. There are no `good' (proletarian) or `bad' (capitalist) genes. People use their own `class' for personal benefits.
Capital (investments) runs after profits, not the other way round: (dwindling) profits running after capital (and its organic components).
Having power means having a bigger chance (also genetically) to survive. E.g., in one European country nearly all its inhabitants are descendants of the dukes of Burgundy. In a capitalist system, power means money (capital); in a totalitarian system, power means being a (one) party chief, in a military dictatorship, power means being a general; in a theocracy, power means being a High priest; in a clan, power means being an `uncle'.

N.A. Ahmed wrote a highly necessary book, presenting (sometimes nearly utopian) solutions in order to save our planet. It is a must read for all those who want to understand the world we live in.
10 of 11 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars A Great Book on the Coming Global Crisis March 25 2011
By Amazon Customer - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
Here are a couple of (long) quotes from the Introduction: "This book provides an integrated, interdisciplinary reassessment of our current global predicament. It is an empirically driven analysis of global crises, developing a body of data from which a reinvigorated human-centered global vision for security through civilizational renewal can be developed, and through which can be revealed the myriad points of interconnection, so often missed by conventional security experts, between different global crises. It proceeds by reviewing the complex systemic interrelationships between global crises, explaining their shared trajectories, and developing a single qualitative map by which to chart their mutual convergence over the coming decades. It makes the following key sub-arguments: 1) Global crises are not aberrations from an optimized global system which require only minor adjustments to policy; they are integral to the ideology, structure and logic of the global political economy. 2) Therefore, global crises cannot be solved solely by such minor or even major policy reforms - but only by drastic reconfiguration of the system itself. Failure to achieve this will mean we are unable to curtail the escalation of crises. 3) Conventional expert projections on the impact of global crises on the political, economic, and ecological continuity of civilization are flawed due to their view of these crises as separate, distinctive processes. They must be understood holistically, intertwined in their causes and hence interrelated in their dynamics."

"This book identifies and reviews trends in and across six specific global crises. It begins with a discussion of: 1) climate change; 2) energy scarcity; 3) food insecurity; and 4) economic instability. Against this background, it critically examines 5) the political economy of international terrorism and its direct relationship to global crises. The book then assess the character and efficacy of the state-security response in terms of 6) the tendency toward militarization in the domestic and foreign policies of Western societies. Of course, these are by no means the only crises we face, but their sheer number and magnitude necessitate the focus on those which appear to be most fundamental in terms of causation. Two others that this book is unable to explore in detail, which are briefly dealt with where relevant, are worth highlighting here: demography, not simply in terms of population growth, but in terms of its uneven character in the form of massive centralization of populations in urban regions, over-exploitation of natural resources and mass displacement in the context of concomitant environmental catastrophes and social conflicts, a `youth bulge' linked to chronic unemployment and poverty in regions of scarce resources, combined with an unsustainable expanding elderly population in the North relative to too few economically active young people; and epidemiology, in terms of the emergence of new and increasingly virulent diseases - such as avian flu and swine flu - with increasingly deadly consequences, facilitated by the conditions of industrial society such as agricultural techniques and long-distance transport. There are other crises still, such as regional and global water shortages, but arguably the six global crises emphasized in this book are largely causally prior to these secondary crises, which can be understood in many ways as symptomatic, themselves interdependent offshoots of global systemic dysfunction."

I don't have much to add, that these two quotes don't already explain about the book, other than to say that this is a very well documented and thoroughly prepared manuscript. It's evident that Nafeez Ahmed knows as much, or more, about the coming global crises as anyone I've yet read. Also, as you may have noticed in these quotes, the writing style is academic, so just know going into this book that it will be dense at times. If this doesn't sound like something you want to get into, then you might try these related books: Chris Martenson's, The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future Of Our Economy, Energy, And Environment, or Ellen Brown's, Web of Debt, Peter Corning's, The Fair Society: The Science of Human Nature and the Pursuit of Social Justice. Still, this book is exceptional and well worth your time - highly recommended.
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Book by a renaissance mind Jan. 2 2011
By Mollymack - Published on Amazon.com
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
Ahmed really is a man with a renaissance mind. I have two of his other books, which are about politics in the Middle East. They're VERY good, but this one is about the SEVERAL crises facing civilization - climate change, looming energy shortages, food shortages, terrorism, and IGNORANCE! He must have a fantastic research staff, because the book is VERY well researched and VERY informative. I recommend it to anyone seeking a serious understanding of where the world is, and what lies ahead.
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