Review
The book of the season . . . comes from Michael Humphreys . . . who has spent years meticulously extracting reads on historical defensive performance from the flawed and fragmentary numbers we have to go by, and he now offers the definitive work on the subject . . . A careful, thoughtful system that will make you appreciate all the more the genius of the late Yankees second baseman Joe Gordon or the peripatetic and vastly underrated outfielder Kenny Lofton . . . A representation of the future of statistical sabermetrics, which in years to come is quite likely to become more focused less on telling the future than on wresting meaning out of the past." -- Tim Marchman,
The Wall Street Journal "Excellent." -- David Schoenfeld, ESPN ("Sweet Spot" blog)
"Humphreys writes capably and makes the math-heavy parts as readable as anyone could. The outcome should attract all dedicated baseball fans and stat hounds." --
Library Journal"Michael Humphreys does for fielding what Neil deGrasse Tyson does for astrophysics: he takes an incredibly complex subject and makes a reader who once felt dumb feel smart. He has cut through the cloud of my unknowing and helped me to understand what major league fielding really is and how it can be quantified. Wizardry is the best book yet on the subject." -- Allen Barra, writer for
The Wall Street Journal"Fielding is the hardest aspect of baseball in which to rate performance. In his fascinating book, Michael Humphreys should get the Gold Glove for historical fielding evaluation. With carefully derived formulae, he rates Aaron, Clemente, Gordon and Hooper as saving 100+ runs more than does Total Baseball, while Mazeroski and Ozzie Smith saved their teams over 100 fewer. And that's just among Hall of Famers! Taken seriously, as it should be, this book will substantially shake up our all-around rankings of players." -- Michael J. Schell, Moffitt Cancer Center, author of
Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters and
Baseball's All-Time Best Sluggers
Product Description
Much of the credit for helping the Red Sox win the World Series went to a more scientific approach to baseball statistics, dubbed "sabermetrics" by its greatest proponent, Bill James. But one aspect of the game has defied quantification: the number of runs individual fielders save. Traditional fielding statistics count errors and plays made, but not hits that fielders should have reached. Major League teams have recently addressed this gap with proprietary location data for every batted ball, but this information has been kept secret, and will never exist for the first century of modern major league baseball history. Now, in Wizardry, comes the long-awaited breakthrough, Defensive Runs Analysis (DRA), created by Michael A. Humphreys. Drawing entirely on public information available to any fan, and using clear, concrete examples, Humphreys demonstrates how to apply classic statistical methods to estimate runs saved by fielders going back to 1893. Humphreys tests his analysis against established fielding measures, and explains their respective strengths and limitations. From shortstop to left fielder, he presents and defends his list of the greatest fielders of all time with anecdote-rich essays. More than that, Humphreys shows how to incorporate DRA into overall player ratings, putting fielding into the context of pitching, hitting, and base running. And he caps off this book with extensive appendices, including a chart of alternative fielding systems, a history of fielding analysis, DRA ratings for all fielders with 3,000 innings at one position, and (in conjunction with the author's website) single-season DRA ratings for all fielders since 1893. Sabermetrics changed baseball and introduced a generation of young people to the art of statistical inference. Now a seasoned analyst makes the case for the biggest changes in historical player valuation in decades, while opening up new approaches for further exploration.