Is the Temperature Rising?: The Uncertain Science of Global Warming (Paperback)

In coping with the many interacting elements that must be addressed in assessing global warming, he begins at the fundamental level. Once any form of atmosphere is in place, what does light do in generating change? No atmosphere merely sits in place - light drives chemical and temperature changes. What changes take place, and how severe, great or minimal, can they be? This is the "uncertain science" Philander uses to subtitle the book. Because interactions of light, water vapour and various molecules react differently, he cautions the reader and his fellow scientists not to arrive at conclusions without making fully comprehensive assessments. It is too easy, he cautions, to draw conclusions through focussing on one or a few players in the climate drama. Ignored or dismissed factors are likely to hold surprises. The biggest surprise, of course, is a scenario that proves false.

With global warming universally accepted, with only the pace and impact in dispute, Philander's book is a welcome summary of the science. His style is neither alarmist nor overly detached from the issues. The balance keeps the book readable. He even banishes most of the mathematical explanations to Appendices at the back of the book. The text is enhanced by highly effective graphics. The theme of uncertainty is introduced early in the book with an image of a skier's wallet skidding down a slope. "Moguls" of heaped snow make the wallet's track unpredictable - a point referred to frequently in the narrative. He images the way
mountains affect rain patterns, how globe-girdling oceanic currents move and what happens in the deep seas as fresh, salt, cold and warm waters interact. Anyone still thinking the oceans are simply beds of salty water should look here.

Although Philander's style is understated, he leaves no doubt as to the seriousness of the problem. The atmosphere is warming. Whether humanity initiated the current cycle is irrelevant. We are aggravating it and only we can reduce our impact. We are unlikely to curb the El Nino cycles, but we can learn to better cope with them. We can also reduce the likelihood of their growing more intense. Philander cites the case of fluorocarbons and the Antarctic Ozone Hole. An accord led to reduction in those gases, new accords can reduce or eliminate production of others clogging the atmosphere. Global warming, he says, is a "risky business". It's up to us to reduce the risk. Read this book and find out how. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

The primary focus of the book is a tour of the science that bears on the ultimate climatic question: is the temperature rising? Philander dives into a detailed review the energy inputs and forces that shape the earth's temperature balance and discusses what is happening now that will affect those forces, in particular, the impact of man-made greenhouse gasses. No doubt this survey is a necessary foundation for understanding the problem, however it comprises the bulk of the book and required some dedication on my part to get through it. In other words, it's not a quick and dirty read and you may find yourself, like me, putting it down frequently.

This review gives the reader the understanding of the many factors that will impact the outcome of current trends in fossil fuel gas buildup - factors which are not unidirectional. For instance, models of global warming generally predict that increased temperature will lead to more water moisture in the air, which in turn acts to reflect sunlight and helps cool the atmosphere. What is not fully understood is how the opposing forces interact and which trend will prevail. Unfortunately, the complexity of the issue - as exemplified by this interaction - greatly clouds the debate, leaving ample room for sophistical arguments from those who both accept and reject the global warming hypothesis.

According to Philander (and essentially everybody else), what is indisputable is that the concentration of so-called greenhouse gasses is rising dramatically, and that alone should be enough to engender caution and attention to this issue. The author lands with those who believe that the earth will continue to warm but implicitly acknowledges that he doesn't know the answer either. Nor can we be sure, but the debate is not likely to go away, so those interested in participating in it could do worse than to read this book. Other reviewers appear to have been disappointed that the book chose to concentrate so heavily on the science behind the global warming debate, but to them my reply is that the science is the crux of that debate - if you're interested in the topic don't let them dissuade you from reading Philander's book. It could be a bit more readable - but it couldn't really be any more on-topic.