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The suggestion that U.S. President George W. Bush and Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden are, for all intents and purposes, serving each other's interests would be heresy in many American circles. But that is exactly what Canadian military historian Gwynne Dyer argues in his impassioned latest book Future: Tense. It's not a notion you would expect from a veteran of the Canadian, U.S., and British navies and a former instructor at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto. In this cogently argued polemic, Dyer maintains that Bush cynically took advantage of the 9/11 attacks to put into motion a so-called "Pax Americana" modelled on the Pax Romana, whose unofficial motto was "Let them hate so long as they fear." The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, he maintains, had nothing to do with fighting terrorism, democracy, or oil and everything to do with repudiating the post-World War II international rules of war enshrined in the United Nations Charter, which stipulates that countries may not go to war without UN sanction or unless attacked.
In the nuclear era, Dyer says these rules are critical for world security. The Iraq invasion was a massive watershed, Dyer warns, because it signalled the end of an era in which countries could feel secure from arbitrary attack. It could also mean that the world will soon return to the pre-World War I era of endless war and security based not on international law, but short-lived alliances between nations. Within a few short years, Dyer predicts, new military alliances will arise centred in China and Europe to counterbalance U.S. power. Most alarmingly, he warns, the UN is being neutered at a time when China and Europe are emerging as new superpowers, U.S. might is in decline, global warming threatens the environment, and competition is increasing for scarce resources. All this means that the planet could be headed down a slippery slope toward World War III, argues Dyer in this important, albeit frightening, book. --Alex Roslin
Product Description
The foundations of World War III are being laid today.
American defeat in Iraq is only a matter of time, but how long it takes matters a lot. The fate of Iraq is a sideshow, the terrorist threat is a red herring, and the radical Islamists' dream of a worldwide jihad against the West is a fantasy, but the attempt to revive Pax Americana is real. No matter what the outcome of the election in November, 2004, the enterprise is likely to continue. It is bound to fail eventually, but we need it to fail soon.
American military power is not limitless, and the other big powers will not stand for US military domination of the world. They don't buy the cover story about the 'terrorist threat,' but they don't want a fight either. They are all on hold for the moment, hoping that America will remember its commitment to the United Nations, the rule of law and multilateralism. If it does not, then the drift back into alliances, balance-of-power politics and military confrontations will begin. Ten years from now, an American-led alliance that includes India and occupies much of the Middle East could be facing a European alliance led by France, Germany and Russia AND a hostile, heavily armed China.
In Future Tense, Gwynne Dyer's brilliant follow up to last year's bestselling Ignorant Armies, he analyzes how the world made its way to the brink of disaster, and describes how we may all slide over the edge. It was fringe groups of extremists - Islamist fanatics and American neo-conservatives - who set the process in motion, but it has gone well beyond that now. It is not too late, but the clock is running.
American defeat in Iraq is only a matter of time, but how long it takes matters a lot. The fate of Iraq is a sideshow, the terrorist threat is a red herring, and the radical Islamists' dream of a worldwide jihad against the West is a fantasy, but the attempt to revive Pax Americana is real. No matter what the outcome of the election in November, 2004, the enterprise is likely to continue. It is bound to fail eventually, but we need it to fail soon.
American military power is not limitless, and the other big powers will not stand for US military domination of the world. They don't buy the cover story about the 'terrorist threat,' but they don't want a fight either. They are all on hold for the moment, hoping that America will remember its commitment to the United Nations, the rule of law and multilateralism. If it does not, then the drift back into alliances, balance-of-power politics and military confrontations will begin. Ten years from now, an American-led alliance that includes India and occupies much of the Middle East could be facing a European alliance led by France, Germany and Russia AND a hostile, heavily armed China.
In Future Tense, Gwynne Dyer's brilliant follow up to last year's bestselling Ignorant Armies, he analyzes how the world made its way to the brink of disaster, and describes how we may all slide over the edge. It was fringe groups of extremists - Islamist fanatics and American neo-conservatives - who set the process in motion, but it has gone well beyond that now. It is not too late, but the clock is running.
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