"The Greatest Bull Market in History: 2003-2008: Investment, Business and Life Strategies - For the Great Boom Ahead and the Great Bust to Follow"
If his past predictions are any indication, this title itself is already filled with hindsight and error. I can tell you there will be no sustainable bull market on any of the indexes for at least the next decade.
I must admit I would like to speak with this guy. With a few real life experiences under his belt he may really hit the target, but so far the best title for a book would be "The Roaring 2000's: How to prosper by making the best seller list by publishing books that make people believe you have the answers."
Lession #1: Don't put dates in the titles of your books that try to predict the future"
However, when you look at the record so far, Harry Dent's prediction in 1999 for the first decade of 2000's is way off. The ink was barely dry on his book when the stock market actually peaked (first quarter of 2000) and then tanked. The stock market then suffered a three year bear market. Current outlook for the stock market is for increased volatility, but reduced growth in the single digit range (not the double digit range, Dent predicted).
Dent missed a lot of things. Some of them he could not have predicted such as heightened geopolitical risk, terrorism. Some other factors, he should have predicted. These included the overvaluation of stocks as a result of the Internet Bubble, the onset of World deflation associated with the flooding of cheap exports from China, the eventual slow down of the U.S. economy among others.
Dent also pauses as a futurist. In this role, he just repeats what Alvin Toffler stated in Future Shock almost 30 years ago. Technology will reform the workplace, will boost economic productivity, etc... Nothing new or informative here.Read more ›
First to give a background to this book: it was written in 1998-which in Greenspan rhetoric may be deemed a time of "irrational exuberance"-so not suprisingly the author was blissfully optimistically over a booming economy. In reality there was a long-term inflationary boom coupled with a strong market for IPO's and tech stocks. Of course, the speculative bubble burst. Contrary to the harbingers of infinite economic growth, there are no new dynamics to the so called "New Economy." If companies hemorrhage money on spending-showing no prospects for profit in their foreseeable future-than they'll probably be restructuring, going out of business, or solve their insolvency problem by merging with a larger firm. Generally, the present recession has made those who believe that there are some new rules to the game come to retreat from their Alice and Wonderland economics. Granted, we're not going to be in this recession forever contrary to the prophets of eternal economic gloom.Read more ›