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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
 
 
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Paperback)

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (207 customer reviews)
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From Amazon.com

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.


From Publishers Weekly

In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

--This text refers to the Hardcover edition.
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Customer Reviews

207 Reviews
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 (104)
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 (39)
3 star:
 (18)
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 (25)
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 (21)
 
 
 
 
 
Average Customer Review
3.9 out of 5 stars (207 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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15 of 16 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars A Different and Worthwhile Look at the Market (and More), Feb 18 2007
By Steve S. (Los Angeles) - See all my reviews
(TOP 50 REVIEWER)   
This review is from: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Hardcover)
Fooled by Randomness is based on a basic truth about humans: we are not very good at statistics, especially if we simply rely on our instincts. For example, we fear airplanes, sharks and terrorists, yet we rarely think about mundane risks like cancer and car accidents. Similarly, we are not good at judging investments. We think that the broker who picked three winners in a row must know something; not necessarily so, says Taleb.

This book is well worth reading, especially if you ever invest in individual stocks or managed stock funds (it will probably talk you out of doing so). It certainly is not an investment guide, however, so do not buy it if you are looking for a hot stock tip.

Taleb has a quirky writing style. This certaintly is not a "pretty" book. Nevertheless, it is easy enough to read.

Taleb, a stock trader himself, does to seem to hold most other traders in high regard.

Taleb has a unusual way of looking at things; one gets the idea that he is somewhat arrogant and a bit of a crank. That being said
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11 of 12 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Important topic - flawed explication, Jul 16 2004
By Craig Matteson (Ann Arbor, MI) - See all my reviews
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)   
This review is from: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Hardcover)
I really wanted to like this book because the it discusses an important topic. The role of randomness in our everyday lives versus our innate (lack of) capacity to deal with it without careful education is one that we need to talk about more in the popular culture. However, the problems with this book are several. Its casual and meandering exposition is supposed to make it more accessible, but it actually makes it harder to come to terms with the topic.

Also, Mr. Taleb is a bit difficult to warm to, although there are occasional flashes of wit and humor that help. For example, he is so proud of his personal achievements that he both disparages them (he is ashamed of his Wharton MBA), and uses them as proof of his superiority of almost everyone (he read a lot at the library). He also has some strange peccadilloes such as his passionate and disproportionate dislike of George Will because he interviewed Robert Shiller (Taleb's friend and author of "Irrational Exuberance") in a rather feckless manner.

In the second half of the book he does explain some interesting phenomena about human psychology and randomness in interesting ways, but he goes completely overboard on certain points. On page 173 he states that Khaneman and Tversky have exerted the most influence on economic thinking in the past 200 years. Come on! Name any major economics department that has become behaviorist in any major way. (Taleb might find such resistance to acceptance a proof of concept - but people weighing evidence seriously would find it a chink in Talebs case.

I think the reality is that what Taleb points to is important and does exist, but that it is something like a second order effect in the big scheme of things. It may matter an extreme amount in the narrow world of options trading where Taleb indicates he lives, but for most of us it is a minor issue. Not one of no consequence, but not a determinative effect in the broad sweep of our lives.

So, I continue to look for a really good book on this topic. If you know of one, please email me with information about the book.

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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Someone at least is still Thinking....., Jul 9 2004
This review is from: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Hardcover)
Nassim's first edition quick became a touchstone in the markets... Rather than looking at someone's fabricated track record one could simply ask have you read Taleb, and understood him....

The answer was and is far more important than any "random" series of returns you show someone..

Happily, Taleb has not stopped thinking, and the new edition goes even further in exploring the basic roots of how we cope with randomness...
The second edition should give those interested a starting point on how to integrate the new "findings" from both Behavioral Finance and the even more exotic Neuroeconomics.....

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 		 Most recent customer reviews

1.0 out of 5 stars A Boring Waste of Time
Based on the positive reviews I had high hopes for this book. Unfortunately it was one of the most boring and annoying books I have ever read. Read more
Published 7 months ago by Marc

4.0 out of 5 stars Fallible ruminations
On a first reading, Fooled by Randomness presents itself as a wise, deep and disjointed introduction to Futility Theory.
Published 15 months ago by Richard Lubbock

3.0 out of 5 stars Abstract, but thought-provoking
Taleb's Fooled by Randomness is an interesting alternative to the large majority of financial literature. Read more
Published 20 months ago by B. Piché

4.0 out of 5 stars A should read, but as an eye opener
I give it 4 stars because I thnk it is a good book for introducing some epistemology in everyday life, although I agree with everything Daniel Maniov says. Read more
Published on Sep 11 2007 by Jacques Warren

4.0 out of 5 stars Fooled by Randomness
I read a great book last night (although it won't be for everyone) called "Fooled by Randomness - The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life" by Nassim Taleb. Read more
Published on Dec 19 2006 by J. Estill

2.0 out of 5 stars Interesting topic, poor writing
The topic of this book is something that I am quite interested in, not necessarily from a professional perspective, but mainly from a personal one. Read more
Published on Oct 23 2006 by Daniel R. Maniov

5.0 out of 5 stars loves and hates
so taleb loves
1) Sir Karl Popper
2) The Skeptic philosopher David Hume
3) Michel de Montaigne
4) Charles Sanders Pierce
5) Daniel Kahneman et al. Read more
Published on Jul 11 2004 by skmerrimorton

2.0 out of 5 stars Much ado about nothing
I found this book enjoyable. However, the salient points could have been written in two pages. The book drags on and seems intent on settling scores with, thinly veiled, former... Read more
Published on Jul 8 2004 by JOSEPH A SABELJA

1.0 out of 5 stars serious lack of substance
I came to this book with a very favourable prejudice. I was utterly disappointed. Too Bad. The author makes a good point: we are bad at understanding the role of randomness in our... Read more
Published on Jul 7 2004 by sebastienag

5.0 out of 5 stars Turns Trading on It's Head
Taleb's clever and readable account of the realities of trading, compensation, as well as the limitations of the knowledge and rational behavior is pure genius. Read more
Published on Jun 16 2004

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