Customer Reviews

The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations

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The frailty of human cognition is exposed and cleanly flayed by Dietrich Dorner (1996) in The Logic of Failure. As we face our flawed intellectual inheritance, we still have a right to feel elated because a weakness exposed is a weakness conquered. Dorner in Failure, indeed, gives us the tools to change our prescription from one of failure and well-intentioned catastrophe to one of humble vision and wisdom. Dorner has written no less than the formula for common sense. Failure resonated with me over and over again. Often, we bumble through life and occasionally, if we are very lucky, we have a few moments where suddenly ignorance is sloughed off and the worldview is changed with a mighty clap. It's the, of course, that's why that happened. Why didn't I see it sooner? Why didn't they see it sooner? With Dorner's work at last we have an explanation for why good people make big mistakes and more importantly a guide to avoid them.

In clear language citing specific studies and without dogma, Dietrich Dorner, et al, shows why we make the wrong decisions and why, sometimes, we make the right ones. It does not have "An Answer" or even a simple set of rules to follow: different situations call for different responses, and The Logic of Failure clearly explains that.

Wow - a superb analysis of why we fail even when doing things right! The lessons contained herein are invaluable to every professional, and more so for those who are in critical decision making and leadership roles. The fallacy of our thinking is something we dont like to admit or understand, this book reveals the pitfalls of the same. You will need some guts to read and understand this book since it will uncover flaws that you will probably hate to admit.
In some places the translation could have been better, however that should not prevent anyone from reading this book. I suggest "Dont just read - but grasp the lessons." It may take more than one reading to get a better understanding, but that investment of time will be well worth the effort. Equally important - reflect on what you read as you try to assimilate the material discussed.

I am totally fascinated at how people acting with good intentions can actually make things worse, the Law of Unintended Consequences. I still want to read some Robert K. Merton who I think identified that law, but in the meantime, this book takes some steps toward figuring it out. I found the experimental portions to be a little dry, but I liked what he learned from them. The main thing I'll remember is how people can be guilty of "ballistic thinking". No, not exposive thinking, but more like shooting from the hip and not being able to adjust the flight of a bullet. With thinking it should be possible.

Dietrich Dörner is an authority on cognitive behavior and a psychology professor at the University of Bamberg, Germany. His research shows that our habits as problem solvers are typically counterproductive.

Probably our main shortcoming is that we like to oversimplify problems. Dörner offers a long list of self-defeating behaviors, but common to all of them is our reluctance to see any problem is part of a whole system of interacting factors. Any problem is much more complex than we like to believe. And failure doesn't have to come from incompetence. The operators of the Chernobyl reactor, as Dörner points out, were "experts." And as experts, they ignored safety standards because they "knew what they were doing."

Dörner identifies four habits of mind and characteristics of thought that account for the frequency of our failures:
1. The slowness of our thinking-We streamline the process of problem solving to save time and energy.
2. Our wish to feel confident and competent in our problem solving abilities-We try to repeat past successes.
3. Our inability to absorb quickly and retain large amounts of information-We prefer unmoving mental models, which cannot capture a dynamic, ever-changing process.
4. Our tendency to focus on immediately pressing problems-We ignore the problems our solutions will create.

Successful problem solving is so complex that there are no hard-and-fast rules that work all the time. The best take-away from the book (and this is my favorite quote): "An individual's reality model can be right or wrong, complete or incomplete. As a rule it will be both incomplete and wrong, and one would do well to keep that probability in mind." The book is 199 easy-to-read pages, and Dörner gives lots of interesting examples from lab tests illustrating people's actual behavior in problem-solving situations.

It's a thought-provoking book for anyone whose job is to tackle complex problems. In one way or another that includes anyone in just about any profession.

In the Logic of Failure, Dietrich Dorner lays out the root causes of decision-making failures in a straightforward, easy-to-read, and even entertaining manner. Dorner covers the psychological and emotional failings that occur when individuals are faced with a myriad of complex systems. Anyone who has been bitten by the law of unintended consequences will see a bit of himself in the pages as Dorner helps one envision the inherent inadequacies that prevent people from predicting and preparing for what becomes painfully obvious in hindsight. Although a bit short on what to do in order to permanently correct the problems identified, simply bringing the pitfalls to light will go a long way to alleviate the problem. This is a must read for managers and strategic planners......perhaps even on an annual basis.

A great book; a keystone of my management science bookshelf that continues to influence my day-to-day thinking 4 years after the first read.

This book goes well beyond a mere summary of Dorner's research. His work investigates the fundamental flaw in human behavior that drives us over and over again to make the wrong decisions: oversteer.

If you have only 30 minutes, order this book and read just the chapter on Chernobyl-- the only intelligent analysis of the disaster I have ever encountered. Chilling.

I picked this book up after hearing a book editor I really respect say he re-reads this great book every few years. And, wow, am I glad I did. What this book talks about is decision-making in situations of complexity, uncertainty and intransparence. The author, Dorner, recounts the results of computer simulations that explore how people succeed and fail in decision making and planning. This is one of those "keepers" that I'll read again and again... and get more from the book each time.

Tangential comment: I'm also a writer (my best-selling books have been Quicken for Dummies and QuickBooks for Dummies) and so I have to say that this book is really, really well-written and edited. Wonderful craftsmanship!

The Logic of Failure is report on a series of gaming scenarios where civic and business leaders were given decision driven issues and adequate information to make good decisions. In the vast majority of cases, the leader makes a decision that is inappropriate to the time horizon of the issue. The decision maker normally makes the decision based on the perception of the need for short term positive results in an environment where those very short term issues lead to long term failure. From the examples, it seems to make little difference how long the necessary time horizon is, the decision maker will still make a decision based on a shorter time than that optimal for the issue. Well written and translated to make it quite readable.

Not a bad book, although mostly concepts. I would have enjoyed more of a hands-on approach to avoiding common pitfalls.