Auto boutiques-francophones Simple and secure cloud storage Personal Care Furniture Kindle Explore the Amazon.ca Vinyl LP Records Store Cycling Tools minions

Your rating(Clear)Rate this item


There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later.

Showing 1-10 of 42 reviews(5 star)show all reviews
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful
on August 27, 2002
Let me get this off my chest first: I read every single review here at Amazon before I bought this book and I must say that the negative reviews; or more accurately the nasty ones, lead me to believe that the reviewers did not read the book. I say that because even if Prichter is wrong, and there is no upcoming "Deflationary Depression" and this decade is all blue skies just like the late 1990's were, any subsequent readers who followed his advice to the exact letter of the verbage would NOT lose any of their assets whatsoever. Therefore, how could this book do harm? At worst it educates the reader as to how to handle uncertain times. There is no bad or harmful advice in this book.
His advice is basically to pay off your bills, put your money in rock solid banks. Don't rely on the government to protect you, buy some precious metals, and get ready to profit once we are at the rock bottom by way of investment strategies that take advantage of the subsequent inflation post a "Deflationary Depression." What's harmful about being in cash?
Now the review: Prichter is confident that there is going to be a deflationary depression. A period of great contraction in our economy that drives down any and all inflated value out of any goods or services such as the depression the United States suffered through in 1929.
He supports his premise with monetary statistics such as the 30 trillion dollar credit bubble that America now has, and numerous other statistics that aren't that pretty.
Prichter also bases his premise for a "Deflationary Depression" on a controversial charting method known as "The Elliot Wave Theory". It's controversial in that some stock market analysts think it is merely conjecture, while other analysts feel it is an absolute, social, "fractal". (A "Fractal" is defined as a geometric shape that self repeats over and over into a larger shape. This can especially be observed in nature.)
As a result, the Elliot Wave Theory is believed to be an accurate way of charting graphs whereas the viewer trained in this principle can predict where that statistic is going to go based on Elliot Wave analysis. Whether this is nonsense or not, every major brokerage firm has an Elliot Wave analyst.
Prichter teaches the basics of this technique and supports his findings with background statistics such as market volume and breath.
The book is divided into two sections: Why a "Deflationary Depression" is going to happen, and the second part of the book covering how to profit and protect yourself when it does. At the very least this book is an educational exercise as to what to do if a "Deflationary Depression" or bear market occurs.
To repeat, his advice would do no harm if followed even if he is wrong. Challenge any reviewer who says otherwise.
Tony
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
on February 18, 2004
Robert Prechter is expecting a devastating dose of deflation leading to a depression, and no collective body (read "government") can do anything about it. He is one of the "old-timers" who has survived the market's up and downs for more than 20 years, and his outlook on our situation is not to be taken lightly. Being high profile, his pronouncements make headlines, and it's all too easy to point to a previous mistake and write him off. However, his scholarship is second to none. He's been right in the past; he just may be right again. And if he is, most of us are in real trouble. Thus, his argument is too important to dismiss without a thorough reading.
Prechter starts with a good overview of his pride and joy, and the basis of all his study - The Elliott Wave Theory. His conclusion is that we are at the end of the 5th wave of the Grand Supercycle which reaches all the way back to 1700. We're talking big-time financial implications here.
To quote Prechter on describing the milieu we've just lived through, "Third waves are built upon muscle and brain. Fifth waves are built upon cleverness and dreams. During third waves, people focus on production to get rich. During fifth waves, they focus on finance to get rich." Sounds remotely familiar.
At the bottom of all our troubles is debt. Gobs and gobs of debt, piled as high as the eye can see. Deflation/depression results in a contraction of credit as debt gradually gets wiped out...one way or the other. It produces a line of falling dominos where less credit means less borrowing means less spending means less production means less employment...which means more liquidations which means more defaults as everything feeds on the downward spiral.
Prechter blames some of this on The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Money Control Act of 1980 which gave the Fed authority to monetize any government agency's (any government anywhere) debt. That power was recently noted in a speech on 21 Nov 02 at the National Economist's Club in DC by Fed governor Bernanke who said, "But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." Clearly, Greenspan & Co. don't plan to sit around while deflation envelopes us. Yet, Prechter contends that the Fed's action to drive rates downward, in addition to continually reliquefying the economy via debt, also participated in the initial phase of the deflationary process.
One of Prechter's most fascinating contributions on which he's written several books ("The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics," "Pioneering Studies in Socionomics," and "Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction"), is that stock market crashes produce depressions and stock market booms produce eras of optimism and economic expansion. Not the other way around. The stock market is a discounting mechanism, leading the economy, not following it. He, correctly, I believe, perceives that stock market values are a function of investor (and public) psychology. When we feel good about ourselves, we bid prices up as is evidenced by expanding PEs. When we are down on ourselves, we sell stocks down to rock bottom prices, again evidenced by low PEs. Therefore, he measures the health of the whole system based on the health of the stock market. And that, he shows us, is in very bad condition - internally weak and grossly overpriced. He even puts a potential number at where the Dow Jones Industrial Average could eventually bottom out...all the way down to 777!
From the stock market, Prechter continues on to the economy, where debt, liquidity, GDP, production, unemployment, trade and budget deficits, etc. are all laid out for investigation, and the picture is one of weakness compared with the economic cycles that have preceded our current era. It is the portrayal of a gradually slowing economy.
All of this foreboding coincides with the Kondratieff Wave (Kondratieff Winter), producing this perfect storm of financial upheaval that's just around the corner.
After laying out why things are going to hell in a hand basket, Prechter proceeds to recommend a way out for the individual investor. He summarizes a list of investment precautions to take to protect yourself from potential calamity by surveying the various asset classes available to us today.
Bonds - Risky. AAA are safest but ultimately depend on ability to service debt.
Real Estate: Lack of liquidity. Prices will collapse with everything else.
Collectibles: Coins, maybe.
Stay away from commodities except gold and silver after they bottom out.
Money market funds are suspect.
Stocks: Only inverse index funds or going short.
Cash: All assets go down in deflation except cash. Short-term Treasuries. Outside US - hold bonds and notes of strong foreign entities. Protect against hyperinflation.
If you listen to Precheter, you will, as he cautions, not be any worse off if it doesn't happen as he predicts. But if he is right, then, at the bottom, you will be in perfect shape to buy stocks, real estate, etc. at bargain basement once-in-a-lifetime prices.
The book tells you why and how disaster could happen, with a lot of evidence on its side. Will it happen? No one knows how it will play out, but Prechter has done his best to ready you for the worst. Perhaps all we're waiting for is the last straw to break the camel's back, Precheter's "The Tipping Point."
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
What Prechter has been predicting is rolling out before our very eyes. This book provides the reasons Prechter believes that the crash of the 30's was a walk in the park compared to what we will live through. In particular, he examines an area that not one in 10,000 of us understands according to Prechter. That's the role of the Fed in creating the most enormous credit bubble in world history. The changes our Congress made in the 90's gave the Fed the power to create virtually unlimited credit expansion and to monetize the debt of agencies and organizations on recommendation of the President. All this is why nobody talks about "printing" money anymore. The Fed just issues check books now.
Prechter believes that our social mood determines the fate of our markets. Knowing that, one can watch this whole economic disaster unroll and understand why.
You will miss a valuable education and new insights into the world of economics that may save your skin, if you miss this book.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
on December 4, 2003
First, obviously Prechter has been very wrong this year, not just on his predictions about the stock market but also his bearish views on gold. This is true both for this book and his newsletter. Still, this book is terrific, and offers valuable insight into how our fiat currency and banking system actually works. Prechter also presents good historical background on what happened during past crashes, and his social commentary is always fun to read. I'm not that keen on Elliott Wave theory, so I mostly glossed over those parts. There are also very practical advice on where to buy gold, bonds, etc., which would be useful to novices.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on August 7, 2003
Just read this book yesterday after 6 months of deciding whether to liquidate my investment accts (IRAs, etc) to pay off my mortgage. Well afer reading this and Crash Profits, it was clear what I needed to do. I liquidated today and will pay off the house as soon as I get my hands on MY money. No more playing with the slick wall streeters and no more IOU from any banks, gov'ts, etc. So, do I recommend this book? You bet, very easy and quick read. Cuts right to the chase and backs it up with solid information.
I have to give credence to what Mr Prechter says even though he doesn't mention what I consider to have the most impact on world economies and politics over the next 2-3 decades; that is the depletion of the worlds energy supply and the fact that growing economies depend on a ready supply of cheap energy. If you're interested in this fascinating subject, do a search on "Peak Oil", or Dr Colin Campbell, and you'll see where I'm coming from.
I may miss out on some future investment returns, but I believe I'll sleep better knowing I own my property outright and am in a true sense making 5.875% on my money. It's the right choice for me and doesn't seem too drastic a measure in these uncertain times.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on August 7, 2003
Just read this book yesterday after 6 months of deciding whether to liquidate my investment accts (IRAs, etc) to pay off my mortgage. Well after reading this and Crash Profits, it was clear what I needed to do. I liquidated today and will pay off the house as soon as I get my hands on MY money. No more playing with the slick wall streeters and no more IOU from any banks, gov'ts, etc. So, do I recommend this book? You bet, very easy and quick read. Cuts right to the chase and backs it up with solid information.
I have to give credence to what Mr Prechter says even though he doesn't mention what I consider to have the most impact on world economies and politics over the next 2-3 decades; that is the depletion of the worlds energy supply and the fact that growing economies depend on a ready supply of cheap energy. If you're interested in this fascinating subject, do a search on "Peak Oil", or Dr Colin Campbell, and you'll see where I'm coming from.
I may miss out on some future investment returns, but I believe I'll sleep better knowing I own my property outright and am in a true sense making 5.875% on my money. It's the right choice for me and doesn't seem too drastic a measure in these uncertain times.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on August 5, 2003
This review is one of the most difficult I've ever written. This book is packed full of useful information, written in language that you don't have to be a financial analyst to understand. It is aimed at the ordinary person.
The book explains when and how deflation and depression are likely to occur. The book's thesis is that we are approaching one of those times. The first half of the book is dedicated to WHY deflation and depression are likely to occur soon, while the second half of the book tells you very specifically what you can do about it.
My difficulty in writing this review stems from not being able to say whether or not I agree with his advice. I bought this book sight unseen, just on the author's name. In the early 1980's, I was a stockbroker, and remember Precher's forecasts being quite unpopular in the investment community, yet uncannily accurate. After reading the book, I feel he has said some REALLY important things here, yet still find myself unable to act on the advice. Reading this book has kept me awake at night, worrying, for six months. The jury's still out.......you'll have to read his book and decided for yourselves. Nevertheless, I want to make clear that I DO HIGHLY recommend this book, as it gives you a lot of meat to think about, as he really backs up what he is saying.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on January 22, 2003
Although I am Australian (the book is mainly written for an American audience) and relatively unaquainted with Prechter's other writings, I still found this book a fascinating read. I can understand why people were quite sceptical about deflation with US interest rates in the region of 6%+ but jeez with them now at 1% ? and even that failing to reinvigorate your economy... How could anyone think that deflation isn't possible or even likely? This book explains very nicely concepts (such as deflation) shunned by mainstream economists with their typically myopic view of the future and gives a perfectly reasonable road-map for preserving (and maybe even building) wealth in the contracting economic environment that lies ahead. Since the largest asset/liability in the world is DEBT it is very important to understand the potential impact that deflation could have on the status quo. Even if most of the debt is adequately collateralised now, deflation would devestate the security behind trillions of world-wide debt causing the bad-debts to baloon, devestating the world economy.
Interestingly we have already observed these very effects in Japan.
Anyone with an open mind should definitely get this book, It may challenge your current thinking, especially about conventional investments such as equities, bonds and real-estate. Even if you personally would be financially devestated by Prechter's future prediction, which incidentally is an impending disaster of larger magnitude than the Great Depression in the 30's, this book is definitely fundamamental to any understanding of what is happening now.
I am not a big supporter of Elliot Wave, but the good thing about this book is that Prechter's thesis does not rest solely on the validity of Elliot Wave.
Remember how many banks collapsed in the 1930's ? ... you might not prove as wealthy as you think.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on October 27, 2002
I've given this book five stars, not necessarily because I liked its contents or the author, but rather because it made me think profoundly about the state of the world economy and of my investments. In fact, I found the author's thesis profoundly disturbing yet also fascinating. If the least Prechter does with this book is make you think outside the box, then its cost and the effort required to read it will be well worth it. Moreover, if only ten percent of his forecasts come true, then I honestly believe that implementing his main recommendations will save you major losses.
Contrary to what many of the other reviewers of this book have posted, I found it to be a challenging read, and not at all facile or alarmist, nor did I find it to be poorly written or difficult to understand. I found that the arguments are well laid out and the writing style is very straightforward, clear, and free of excessive jargon.
Conquer the Crash challenges most of our cherished beliefs about the economy, finance, banking, money, government, and investing. Perhaps the main one is that a deflationary depression can occur, just look at Japan since 1990. If the current downturn really does turn into just such a distressing scenario, then you can use the information provided in the second part of the book to prepare yourself adequately.
As for the Elliot Wave Principle itself, I will neither vouch for it nor speak against it. All I can say is that I have started studying it so that I can decide for myself. That being said, as applied by Prechter and his associates, Elliot is not a predictive tool, but rather a forecasting tool, and whatever its effectiveness for this purpose, Prechter does not claim in any of his writings to "predict" the future, nor has he ever denied being wrong in the past. In my opinion, Prechter is the essence of the "anti-guru", if such a thing can exist. Right in the Foreword he states, "If you take action after reading this book, I insist that you do so because you agree (Note: word italicized in original) with my case, not because you are blindly following my conclusions." (p. xv, Conquer the Crash) Furthermore, Prechter is quite candid about his having withdrawn from the stock market too early. However, he attributes this to his reading of the "signs of the times". It would be easy now to attack him for having missed out on the final upswing in the mania which ended in 2000, but that is purely an ad hominem argument, and not one of substance.
Over time, Prechter has been consistent throughout his published writings as to the final outcome of what he calls the "Grand Supercycle" bull market which he claims ended in early 2000. As early as 1978, he and co-author A.J. Frost forecasted a major investment and economic downturn after the final surge that they foresaw for the eighties (see p. 198 of Elliot Wave Principle, Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1999, which maintains the original text of the 1978 edition so current readers can compare the forecasts to the actual events since then). Moreover, the April 6, 1983 Elliot Wave Theorist (Prechter's main newsletter, see pp. 220-32, ibid.) forecasted "Worldwide banking failures, government bankruptcy, and eventual destruction of the paper money system", as well as major "armed conflicts". Before dismissing these possibilities, one should consider the fate of Japan, which on September 20, 2002, was unable to sell all of a major new issue of 10 year bonds, as well as the defaults, bankruptcies, and/or major currency devaluations of Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, and now Brazil since 1997.
In conclusion, read the book to get an alternative view from the usual "buy and hold" through the downturn, and decide for yourself. If you don't agree with the thesis after the first part of the book, then at least you'll have learned something new. If you do agree with Prechter, then you can start implementing his recommendations. Either way, you can't lose.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
on October 4, 2002
Every before I've heard of Elliott Wave Analysis or Robert Prechter, Jr., I was quite concerned about the state of our economy due to the massive amount of debt that has been created since 1913. A highly recommended book to read with this is "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve System" by G. Edward Griffen.
Prechter is not making any money on this book. In an interview with him, he says that chose to go with a large publisher and have them take most of the profits in order to reach more people. Any profits from the book goes back into advertising it.
By looking back into history, Prechter compares the socio-economic mindset of previous boom-bust cycles to that of today. We are repeating history, yet again. Read all of the one-star reviews. This is the same mindset of the general public in the Great Depression.
Prechter's advise, even if he is 100% wrong, will not harm you:
- Get out of debt and only buy what you NEED, not what you WANT.
- Don't purchase a house or vehicle beyond your means. If you have done so, sell and move into a house that you can pay cash for or at least comfortably make the mortgage payments.
- Only bank at the highest quality bank. The top 2 for each state are listed.
- Open a Swiss bank account.
- Have cash and precious metals on hand.
The above is just sound advice in ANY market. And for those who are bearish and believe the bottom has not come yet, there are additional recommendations:
- Sell all of your stocks and empty out your 401K even if means taking a penalty.
- Have your assets in liquid form such as cash and precious metals.
Prechter conveniently lists banks, precious metal dealers, Swiss financial planners, etc. to make it easier for you to prepare as well as provides free updates to the book on his web site.
As for the reviewer who compared Prechter to Bin Laden and accused him of "economic terrorism," nothing could be futher from the truth. For his research in Elliott Wave Analysis and accurate predictions, as well as making the effort to help his fellow American to prepare for deflation and depression, Prechter should be awarded the Noble Prize in Economics.
And for the stock analyst and the other reviewer with the degree in economics, have you read the book, or studied the Federal Reserve System, or even watched the news? Layoffs are increasing, earnings are down, foreclosures are rising, loan defaults are rising, savings rate are at an all-time low, debt payments as a percentage of income is at an all-time high, and yet THE CONSUMERS ARE STILL SPENDING! The mountain of debt will come crashing down very, very hard. And as long as we are thowing out credentials I also have a degree in math-econ. By Jan 1, 2003, the Dow Jones will be below 7000. I'm short selling and guess you are buying.
0CommentWas this review helpful to you?YesNoSending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse