Customer Reviews

The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market

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Anyone who has had as much success as Soros must be doing something right, so I respect his mind. Unfortunately, he is a terrible writer. He could take ten pages explaining why 2 + 2 = 4.

Here's an example:
"[the shoelace theory]...can be interpreted as a synthesis of Hegel's dialectic of ideas and Marx's dialectical materialism. Instead of either thoughts or material conditions evolving in a dialectic fashion on their own, it is the interplay between the two that produces a dialectic process."

This passage is a microcosm of the entire book: he makes a valid point, but it's not a particularly significant or difficult point. The only difficulty is in parsing his turgid language. I sense he is a great investor who wants to be considered a great thinker, and he believes that in order to accomplish this he has to use big words to express his theories.

Soros's widely praised theory of reflexivity is a valuable contribution, but he doesn't need 400 pages to convey it. I didn't read this book expecting a "how to make money in the stock market" tutorial, but I did expect to gain a better insight into how the markets function. I did not get that.

Don't waste your time.

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In this updated edition, Soros summarizes his worldly philosophy--the connection between thought and reality and how it applies to financial markets. The heart of the book remains Mr. Soros's account of what he did with Quantum Fund in the mid-1980s, both as an example of his approach and a remarkable lesson in how to make money in markets where most of the time nobody, including Mr. Soros, knows what's coming next.

His philosophical tenet, Reflexivity, denotes a feedback loop: Individuals act on their views of a situation, thereby changing the situation. For example, if traders believe a stock is going up, they buy it, thereby bidding it up. But their belief caused the result; there may be no fundamental reason for the rise.
Thus what we think determines what we do and has consequences, but typically it is not correct.

Inspired by Heisenberg's rule about quantum particles, Soros proclaims a human uncertainty principle which suggests our understanding is often incoherent and always incomplete. From his case study, one notices that uncertainty continually besets Mr. Soros in managing his hedge fund, which has the same name as the particles subject to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

General models do not always translate into money making practice. But Soros provides an insight of great practical significance: traders need to be adaptive, because there is no way of knowing beforehand how a market situation will turn out.

The Quantum Fund experience demonstrates how that works. This exercise in global macro strategy, a master speculator's take on commodity, currency and equity markets, is a a litany of doubts and hazards.

He's been losing on currency trades for several years. Then in September 1985, he makes a killing by buying a lot of yen just before central banks switch to a new exchange rate system and the yen rises. There is a pattern: he sustains losses, reduces positions, gets out, then sees a great opportunity and pounces. In short, he constantly and quickly adapts to events.

Despite various setbacks, Quantum Fund's NAV per share rose 121% in 1985 and 43% in 1986. Such numbers make for legend and Mr. Soros became one.

How did he do it? He keeps an open mind and continually modifies his outlook with new information. As he remarks, "the markets provide a merciless reality check," and Mr. Soros never stays with an idea that fails the test. Most of the time he can't predict what's coming, but he promptly corrects course in response to feedback. That limits losses. On rare occasions he can see through the fog of uncertainty and hauls in the booty.

This is not an easy book to read, but as another hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, describes it in the foreword, it is a timeless guide.

Soros is unquestionably one of the finest investors of our time, and the concept of "reflexivity" that he introduces in this book does have some merit. However, I found his wordy tome is a slightly burdensome read. Most of his most valuable points are in the first 80 pages; the remaining 300 could have been trimmed down by a wise editor.

Soros' main points revolve around a concept that he dubs "reflexivity." Reflexivity claims a few things: First, that prices aren't objective; they're based on people's biased perceptions of the fundamental factors influencing the market. Second, people make trades based on their biased perceptions, so perceptions will influence the market. Third, and most importantly, those market movements can in turn change the market's underlying fundamentals. There is, therefore, a continuous co-evolution of the market fundamentals, the market's price movements, and market participants' perceptions.

Let's run through an example to make this clear. Say a profitless Internet company's stock soars because investors have overblown expectations of earnings growth. That company could then use its inflated stock in a stock-swap to aquire another company that DOES has earnings. This aquisition would thus "justify" the stock's inflated stock value. Thus, mistaken perceptions have allowed a change in the structure of an industry (i.e. two companies merged which would not have earlier).

Soros makes a number of other valuable points about "reflexivity." He notes that traditional economics try to sidestep the issue of subjectivity and biased perceptions by assuming people behave rationally, which of course isn't always true. To demonstrate this, he points out that we see reflexive behavior all over the markets. For example, we see self-reinforcing price trends (people buy because a stock is going up, or sell when it's going down), rather than random-walks in prices. We see booms & busts in the credit markets. And so on.

Finally, the genesis of the title, "The Alchemy of Finance" comes from Soros' observation that finance can never be a science because the traditional tools of science -- that is, explanation, prediction and objectivity -- can't be used, because perceptions and subjectivity cannot be seperated out like they can in a controlled science experiment. Finance can only be a form of alchemy -- it seeks operational success, instead of being able to seeking and test fundamental laws as the scientific method does.

Overall, I found the book insightful in parts, but rambling. Some other reviewers claimed that the book was pseudo-intellectual. I did find that it lack academic rigor, but I can't be sure if that's because he was writing for a popular audience.

Since the book was written in the late 80's, there's been growing interest & academic research at the intersection between psychology and financial markets. Soros was not the first to recognize that financial markets involve a good dose of psychology, but his book serves to underscore this important truth about the market.

This is by far one the most important business books ever to be written. It's a must for anyone looking to educate themselves about the world of business. Anyone can learn from the How-To gurus, but if you want to truly educate yourself, read this book.

For me it is a wonderful exploration of the mindset of a genius. Soros lets you discover his day-to-day way of seeing the market and interpreting events. This book improved significantly my confidence and my ability to read and understand the market. A must have !

This is definitely one of the most insightful books covering the most advanced technique in the investment world. The word "Reflexivity" may be somewhat abstract but it's been in the works since there were trading. You have to get a good grasp of human psychology to understand the concept. Another good point is that the market is always chaotic and irrational. Supply and demand are two acquaintances who might bump into each other once in a while but never get along.

As for Mr. Soros allegation on insider trading......I have yet to meet a successful trader who has to read the morning newspaper to get his/her financial information. If you're naive enough to think the market is fair and that every investor should base their decision on public information, then you really should just keep all your savings in your savings account. The market is not for you. And this book is not for you.

Yes, the book could be culled down to a few words, but Soro's level of critical thinking is the difference. Both he and us gain valued insight from seeing a financial process germinated, grown, and pruned, where needed. Soro's journey comes across as authentic and without major pretense. I gained useful perspective from a stroll through his absorbing mind and especially liked his concluding notes about how the open society movement gives him added purpose.

Soros is the greatest publicly known investor of our times. His Quantum Fund numbers attest to that. In this book, he makes a Herculian effort to explain how he did it, including a real-time diary, which is as informative in revealing how often he is wrong-headed (and so exits) as it reveals how he piles on more leverage on a winning position. He also tries to honestly write about how some decisions are simply intuitive, and not the result of reasoned analysis. Though most investors will not be involved in macro-investing, where Soros simultaneously considers equity prices, forex, commodities, politics and economics, and using 5 to 1 leverage invests accordingly in stocks, bonds, currencies, both long and short --- still this is a must-read for anyone considering a carreer as a money manager. If you wanted to be an artist, you would read the biography of da Vinci, a master of art. Soros is a master of finance. The way the Beatles inspired a generation of musicians, so Soros inspired a generation of hedge fund managers.

Soros does not reveal his real investment secrets, however you can get a picture of what this great mind and financier is all about.