Most helpful positive review
6 of 6 people found the following review helpful
on January 9, 2011
As for the author's book on risk, this book is clear, easy to read and shows why the expert predictions that we see every night on the news, should be taken with a grain of salt. Likewise the grand statements by other public figures are also likely to be based in some measure on defective information that is the result of no one taking the time to logically apply reasoning. This book should be mandatory reading for every journalist, politician and public "expert". By illustrating specific examples of "grand predictions" and why they turned out wrong, the author builds his case quite forcefully. Also he does a good job of showing why it is difficult to predict the future and why we want to believe things, even those that seem the most outlandish. This book offers a great deal of insight into how public policy questions become anything but rational exercises.