Customer Reviews

The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth

5 star:		(11)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(4)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

Recently I wrote a review of the book 'The Probability of God' for a skeptical magazine. Looking over the reviews here on Amazon I was surprised to find that one or two people had used negative excepts from my review to sandbag the author and his work, awarding him only one star. This will not do. The Probability of God is an outstanding and thought provoking book, one with which you can disagree and still appreciate what it has to offer. I award the book four stars.

Do I regard the authors core argument for belief in a God as flawed for the reasons you have read? Yes. I do. But in the interest of restoring balance allow me to highlight the strengths of this book.

First, Dr. Unwin has presented a new and innovative way to look at belief in God. In an area where the standard arguments for theistic belief have become calcified and tedious, the author delivers a breath of fresh air through Bayesian probabilities. The mathematical framework of Bayesian probabilities also provides a badly needed field of commonality on which both sides can meet to debate the merits of the issues. The math is easy and accessible due to the effortless way the authors has with words.

Second, the provocative 67% probability figure has energized the debate and provoked a lot of interest in the issues, as evidenced not just by the flurry of reviews here on Amazon, but by the guest appearance of the author on NPR, as well as by all of the human-interest news items generated in the press. Most theistic books never manage a blip on the public radar, while the authors work is seismographic in comparison.

Third, the supporting material is worth the price of the book. The author challenges currently popular evidences for God, and his discussions on what it means to 'exist', on quantum behaviors, and the bigotry of 'Scaleism' are delightful!

In conclusion, The Probability of God is vibrant. It sparkles with wit and thought provoking arguments. Weather you are a believer in God or not, you will find something in this book the challenge you and engage your mind. If you don't agree with the author, run your own numbers. Cast your own criteria and see where the calculations lead. Dr. Unwin will show you how.

In spite of the fact that I am agnostic and have no particular belief in gods, I find myself in the unusual position of recommending that people buy this book which argues for the existence of God. That is how special this book is. I call this book is a recommended read.

Would I recommend this book? -- most certainly! In fact I have purchased additional copies for my church library and for a few "no nonsense friends." Given the nature of the subject, the book is a relatively quick read: 6-8 hours more or less, depending on a reader's interest in performing a personalized assessment in parallel with the author's.

The value of the book is not in its theology, but rather in the questions posed, and the structural and analytical tools provided to the reader. I especially appreciate that the author focuses on equipping inquisitive readers with a methodology for identifying, structuring, and assessing their own beliefs, and not on defending a particular position or belief. The pluralism allowed by the author's approach is indeed a welcome relief to dogmatic positions so often manned in matters of religion. Posturing and "Is" and "Is not" positioning are absent from this book. Readers are free to select and evaluate their own beliefs. The author's perspective encourages contemplation, not fortification.

Thankfully, the writing is witty and at tiimes delightfully humorous. The author skillfully balances the sophisitcated logic that underlies Bayesian analytical technique (more nearly the subject of the book), with light-hearted and sometimes penetrating examples. The author's discussion implies truths imbedded in probability and decision analysis methodology. 1.) Statment of the premise has a direct effect on the analytical result: i.e., careful the question, lest the indication provided by the analysis point east rather than north. 2.) In order to be meaningful Bayesian analysis must be rigorously structured and consistently applied; there-in resides the strength of a mathematical approach. 3.) Once "premise" and "structure" are established, results of alternate determinants can be calculated with minimal effort. 4.) And finally, results of iterative analyses give rise to insights as to which determinants drive results and therefore the direction of the decision.

An unexpected side benefit of the book is the interest it sparks for gaining additional understanding of the development of probabilistic thinkiing and methodology. Unwin's THE PROBABILITY OF GOD are shelved alongside Bernstein's AGAINST THE GODS, and Hacking's THE TAMING OF CHANCE: good reading all.

Probability of God is a wonderful book. I am a person of faith and a scientist (chemist). As such I tend to struggle with some of the beliefs held by my fellow faithful, particularly beliefs that my education has made unavailable to me. The reason I love this book is that it provides a very eloquent and powerful basis for faith that doesn't intrude on the magnificent achievements of science.

The thought process that Unwin goes through is very original - and originality is not a word I often associate with books on religious themes, which tend to be stale and repetitive. The probability numbers are fun, but that's not where I see the value of this book. The idea that uncertainty about religious ideas has a positive benefit is the most intruiging to me, i.e., faith needs uncertainty. I noticed an earlier reviewer said this book is not for the certain on either side of the debate. I agree completely.

This book is a very quick read given the weight of the subject matter. I found it fun, edifying, and very uplifting.

Some reviewers have focused too much on Dr. Unwin's conclusion, ignoring the valuable and provoking framework he provides for the overall discussion. In an easy-to-read and witty manner, the author provides a mathmatical context in which to discuss not only the existence of God, but the role of faith in our beliefs. Within that framework, Unwin offers up his own proofs, while leaving adequate room (and clear instruction) for the reader to substitute their own proofs. For any reader that wishes to risk examing their beliefs within a proven, established and logical discipline such as Bayesian probability theory, this is a great read. In the end, it is a means whereby each reader can determine for themselves where belief ends and faith begins.

This is not a book for the certain. It will probably irritate them. If someone's looking for a book that completely endorses their hardened beliefs, atheist or theist, this not the one for them. There are hundreds of other books for that. On the other hand, if you want a balanced, impressively systematic evaluation of the evidence in a very novel setting, I think you'll enjoy Unwin's book. He argues in the end that uncertainty isn't all bad, and even provides an important spiritual element, when it comes to belief in God. I think it describes a powerful basis for religious belief that doesn't have to be rooted in complete certainty.

I am not especially excited about this book, but I would like to warn readers that not all criticisms of it is valid.

For example, a previous reviewer writes, "Yet according to Biblical mythology, God created Adam and Eve WITHOUT the knowledge of good and evil. So if the biblical God is to remain viable, the probability that a god would create man with the ability to recognize good and evil must be some number less than 100%."

However, this reflects a misunderstanding of the biblical text. The Bible does not say that Adam and Even never knew about good and evil until they ate of the fruit. The reviewer, understandably not being familiar with Scripture, misunderstands the biblical expressions in that passage. At the least, God gave them several moral commands immediately after creating them. Also, Romans 1 and 2 say that God has implanted into every person an innate knowledge about himself and his moral requirements. Therefore, the biblical position is that man does know good from evil in the sense that the reviewer denied. As to what the passage from Genesis means, please consult a commentary.

Whether you are an atheist or a theist, instead of this book, I would recommend the books on apologetics by Vincent Cheung of Reformation Ministries International. He is one of the better philosophers around today. Search the web for his name and/or the name of the organization, and you will fine him. All his works are free for download.

When I finished the book I felt like I'd gotten a free lunch. I came out knowing a lot about everyone from Pascal to Heisenberg, and yet I'd felt no pain. In fact, the book was a page-turner. I read Salmon of Doubt recently and I find Unwin's humor a little reminiscent of Douglas Adams. Also, quite apart from the whole God thing, this book is a great introduction to Bayes theorem of probability. Maybe I even feel confident enough to produce my own probability of God number ... well, probably ...

As others have reported, the delivery was clear, witty, and very readable.

The author did an admirable job of not overstating his case. For example, he considered and rejected the argument from design -- what he calls the "rose petal" argument, the notion that the elegance and intricacy of the known universe evinces a creator with a big-picture plan. He even goes so far as to supply a nice, light vignette to dispatch with this proof, despite his affinity for what it allegedly proves. No one can accuse this author of not being fair-minded.

The problem comes down to GIGO: garbage-in, garbage out. Baylesian probability (as the author ably explains) gives a method to take a known probability, consider additional evidence, and arrive at a subsequent probability. The garbage-in here is the seven points of additional evidence by which the author adjusts the original 50-50 proposition that God either exists or doesn't.

Needless to say, the quality of this superceding evidence, and the numerical values assigned to it, are critical to the outcome. Unwin does not go far enough in establishing that numbers can be assigned to the points of evidence he gives, much less that *his* numbers are the right ones. Without a method for converting vague, grand propositions to crisp probabilities, e.g., "it is x% more likely that the existence of evil would be apparent in a godless universe than in a godful universe", this is no more than question-begging. This can only be a nice mathematical way to bundle and organize the question of God's existence if there are nice mathematical inputs. Unwin assigns values and gives his reasons, but ultimately he's only provided a framework in which others will inevitably assign differing values -- with differing results. And thus we're back at square one.

More work remains to be done before Baylesian probabilities can be truly said to illuminate the question of God's existence. I like the author's style, I admire the spirit of his attempt, I appreciate the clear lesson in probabilities, but I am not convinced.

It's rare indeed when the tools of the scientific community are useful in contemplating fundamental concepts of faith in God. However, Dr. Unwin has accomplished just that by applying an established theorem of probability to grope with life's most basic question: "does God exist?" His proposed approach reaches out to those of us who feel the need to rationalize or substantiate our belief in a living and benevolent supernatural being.

Amazingly, the author achieves this feat without burdening the reader with heavy theology and abstract mathematics. Nor does he reduce man's search for the Divine to trivial arithmetic. Rather, he proposes an intriguing way to view the subject. It's also a thoroughly enjoyable read because he presents his case in an informal, conversational style and with a sense of humor that balances the gravity of the subject.

Perhaps the most appealing feature of the book is that it's basic ideas stay with you long after you've finished reading. For example, Dr. Unwin presents six "evidentiary areas" for estimating the probability that God truly exists; for example: the universal notion of good and evil, and life-saving events that defy physical explanation (miracles). He uses these concepts as a basis for developing a probabilistic argument that God exists; that is, the evidence suggests it's more likely he exists than he doesn't. Soon after finishing the book, I found myself playing with the numbers and applying them to my own ideas of evidence for and against the proposition that God exists. This is the stuff that stimulates great discussion around the dinner table or (God forbid) at happy hour.

I really loved this book. It seems to be a completely revolutionary way (at least to me) of looking at belief in God. There is a math part to it, but the author is very good at explaining it. I wish he'd been my math teacher. On top of all this, the book is really very funny. He seems able to work in the humor at the same time as keeping the serious theme moving along. My guess is that this book will open up a whole new line of enquiry into God and religious beliefs.