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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Hardcover – Apr 17 2007

4.0 out of 5 stars 48 customer reviews

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  • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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  • Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
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  • Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Product details

  • Hardcover: 480 pages
  • Publisher: Random House; First Edition edition (April 17 2007)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1400063515
  • ISBN-13: 978-1400063512
  • Product Dimensions: 16.3 x 3.6 x 24.1 cm
  • Shipping Weight: 839 g
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars 48 customer reviews
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #15,015 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Product description

From Booklist

In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Review

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
 
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
 
Praise for The Black Swan
 
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”The Times (London)
 
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
 
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
 
The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
 
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
 
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”Financial Times
 
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

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