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Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market Hardcover – Oct. 1 1999

4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 40 ratings
2.6 on Goodreads
25 ratings

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Contrarian . . . controversial . . .
compelling . . . practical
This book will liberate investors from conventional wisdom and change the way everyone thinks about stocks and investing.
What's the message investors have been getting from media pundits and so-called market experts? "Stocks are in the stratosphere. . . . They're risky. . . . We're headed for a fall."
Jim Glassman and Kevin Hassett heard this message for years but wondered why the opposite kept happening. Instead of declining, the prices of stocks kept rising. Was financial gravity being defied, or were other forces at work? Were investors being frightened away from profits they could be enjoying from a market that will continue to boom?
Dow 36,000 is the result of Glassman and Hassett's investigation. It is one of the most important and provocative books on markets and investing written in recent years. Its original and compelling analysis and practical program for profiting from the continuing rise in the stock market are ideas that every investor--from neophytes to the most experienced--must understand and act on now.
¸  Stocks are undervalued, not overvalued. Stock prices will double, even quadruple, within a short period of time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will soon reach 36,000. Astounding profits can be made, but the time to act is now! Dow 36,000 tells why this one-time rise is coming and how to adjust your portfolio and invest without fear.
¸  The perfectly reasonable price. Prices are too low because investors and Wall Street have been looking at stocks the wrong way: at valuation levels of the past (the traditional ceiling of the price/earnings ratio, for example). Dow 36,000 provides a new model--a new way of valuing the worth of any stock by figuring out how much money it will put in an investor's pocket.
¸  How to invest with confidence. Glassman and Hassett provide investors with a sensible strategy for making money by becoming a disciplined "36er." Their practical advice tells why many investors should not be active traders and why it's important to hold on to stocks and mutual funds even when they go into a downturn.
¸  A practical program to maximize your portfolio. Glassman and Hassett provide their picks for the best stocks and mutual funds, but just as valuable are their ideas on how to think about the kinds of stocks and mutual funds that will help earn the most money. Examples include not only such stocks as Cisco Systems, Microsoft, and GE, but many you may not have thought of, including Tootsie Roll and Biogen.
Investors have long needed a new way to understand what is happening in the stock market. Dow 36,000 provides that understanding. It is the new paradigm.

Product description

From Amazon

Most books that predict a sky-high stock market make their forecast either by extrapolating the trend line of the market's recent past or by looking at the demographics of the baby boom and the vast amounts of retirement funds chasing stocks. In Dow 36,000, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett see a bright future for stocks, but rather than looking at external factors, the two base their prediction on the intrinsic value of equities and their ability to generate cash.

At the heart of Glassman and Hassett's argument is the idea that stocks have been undervalued for decades and that, for the next few years, investors can expect a dramatic one-time upward adjustment in stock prices. Why? While Wall Street has focused on valuation measures such as P/E ratios, it has virtually ignored how stocks can work as cash engines (the good ones, at least). The authors cite example after example of the growth in dividend income for stocks and how it has consistently beaten the annual payouts of long-term Treasury bonds. One example they cite is Exxon, which you could have bought in 1977 for about $6 when it was paying a dividend of 37 cents, or about 6 percent a share. Twenty years later, the dividend had grown to $1.63 or 27 percent of your initial $6 investment. Compare two $1,000 investments over 20 years in Exxon and 7.5 percent Treasury bonds: payments from the T-bonds would amount to $1,500; the Exxon dividends would add up to $3,585--not to mention that shares in Exxon went from $6 to $61 during that same period. To get to their target of 36,000, the authors project dividend growth of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and apply a valuation measure that they call PRP ("perfectly reasonable price"). Many will dismiss this kind of thinking as wishful, but they're probably the same Chicken Littles who have been calling the market overpriced for years (think back to January 1993, when the Dow was hovering around 3,300).

In addition to making their case for undervalued stocks, the authors toss off some good investment advice about stock picking, portfolio allocation, and buying mutual funds, and they go to great pains not to bulldoze readers with investing and economic jargon. As you might expect, Glassman, an investing columnist for the Washington Post, and Hassett, a former senior economist with the Federal Reserve, are firmly in the buy-and-hold camp, and make the case for working with a full-service broker as a check against churning, something that's all too easy to do when trading over the Internet. This book is sure to rile some, but no matter where you think stock prices are headed, Dow 36,000 is a provocative read that belongs on the bookshelf of any thoughtful investor. Who knows? We may come to think of these guys as value investors on steroids. --Harry C. Edwards

From Publishers Weekly

The only thing missing from this half-time speech of an investment book is an exhortation to buy stocks for the Gipper. Despite the sensationalist title, Glassman, a syndicated columnist, and Hassett, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who used to be an economist at the Federal Reserve, argue only the classic case for investing in stocks: that over long periods of time stocks have always outperformed alternative investments. But no motivational device is spared to make this case more strongly than it has ever been made before. Experienced investors will wince at the simplification and overstatement as the authors, in their effort to obliterate the arguments of anyone who has ever suggested that stock prices might actually fall, brush aside considerations like risk, dividend yields and price-earnings ratios. These and all other objections are downed out by the drumbeat of Dow 36,000! How do they arrive at this number? In several different ways, none of which is described in detail. Over long periods of time the Dow goes up, with inflation if nothing else. In the last two decades, it has been rising at a rate that makes it triple every seven years. So predicting that the Dow will triple eventually is not saying much. The key question for investors is, will it triple fast enough to make stocks an attractive investment? Here the authors fall into confusion, suggesting, in the space of seven pages, that it could happen in three years or 10 years. This last prediction implies that the stock market will actually do worse in the next decade than it has in the previous two. Agent, Rafe Sagalyn. First serial to the Atlantic Monthly; BOMC alternate selection; Money Book Club main selection; 5-city author tour.
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown Business; 1st edition (Oct. 1 1999)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0812931459
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0812931457
  • Item weight ‏ : ‎ 567 g
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.88 x 3.18 x 24.77 cm
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 40 ratings

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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
40 global ratings

Top reviews from Canada

Reviewed in Canada on March 21, 2001
James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett argue that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go up to 36,000 over the next few years, since stocks are currently undervalued. However, as more investors recognize this undervaluation, it will be harder and harder for you to make big profits on stocks. Thus, they exhort, invest now. The collapse of the tech bubble and the subsequent equity market sell-off put these thoughts in a new perspective, but Glassman and Hassett maintain that although some price corrections are inevitable, stocks will rise strongly in the long term. Apart from their theories about stock valuations and Dow increases, they also offer solid investment tips from the familiar conservative canon: diversify and hold for the duration. We at getAbstract recommend this book to a general audience of investors - as both a serious analysis of stock market trends and a reminder of more optimistic times.
Reviewed in Canada on September 25, 1999
The authors lay out a simple but logically compelling theory that both explains the tremendous gains in stock prices in recent years as well as forecasts further huge gains soon to come. They are no charlatans, as some would make them out to be. At every step, they employ extremely conservative assumptions as their data inputs. Truly, they are being conservative in their "Dow 36000 by 2005" call. At any rate, the authors have provided an invaluable service to individual investors who, for too long, have been told all the wrong things by the troglodytes of the financial establishment who, like Alan Abelson, just don't get (and don't give up in not getting it, and are never held accountable for their consistently erroneous pronouncements). Common stocks are indeed the safest, best long-term investment around, and a combination of a) more and more investors realizing this over time and investing accordingly; and b) a productivity-driven economic boom, will combine to power the market ahead for many years. Thank you, JG and KH; your book will one day be a classic!
Reviewed in Canada on September 1, 2016
Verified Purchase
Still in the process of reading it, but overall has some good tips. I read a more recent article from the author saying he was wrong in this book, so that is why I wanted to read it.

It approached fundamental buy/hold for U.S. stocks but in this changing dangerous world that adds some interesting challenges to this thinking.
Reviewed in Canada on February 14, 2000
This book really got me to thinking. Many folks subscribe to the "internet bubble" theory, others subscribe to the "efficent market" theory. I believe this book brings to bear some pretty good arguments for yet another theory. Can't say if they are right or wrong just yet, but they make their case quite convincingly.
I would recommend reading this book as it makes you think about the stock market and what the next 10 years will be like.
Scott.
Reviewed in Canada on July 28, 2002
Dow 36,000 elicits (or did from me) plenty of laughs. It would have taken a couple of academics to produce such a relentlessly wrongheaded book.
The key errors are twofold, in my opinion. First, the authors exhibit precisely that of which they accuse those who differed with them: they think they are smarter than the market. They feel (or felt -- maybe they have wised up by now) that right at that moment (mid-1999) the Dow should have been three hundred percent higher than it was at the time and that the proper PE ratio was 100. Nevermind that market history refuted that position, and nevermind that we have seen such claims before and they proved false. (The authors strain credulity in their attempts to show otherwise.)
Second, the authors assumed that earnings growth (which they apparently took to be real) would continue ad infinitum at a steady upward incline AND that dividend growth would take a similar path. Well, the intervening years have proven both assumptions to be completely false. They made a pro forma nod toward ups and downs in the market, but ignored the meaning and impact of those ups and downs.
More fundamentally, perhaps, the authors' relentless (albeit I think somewhat disingenuous) insistence on the long run (20 years plus) ignores the reality that (1) many big players in the market are NOT waiting out 20 years, but rather play for short term advantage and (2) many people -- those who actually have to live off their investments -- must sell from time to time to cover expenses, and CANNOT simply wait out gut-wrenching market drops.
The most ludicrous advice in the book is, in effect, that investors SHOULD fall in love with their stocks -- which is the most fundamental error of all, and one that has victimized countless investors. Their term is to form a personal relationship with their stocks, but the meaning is the same: fall in love with them and hold on for dear life no matter what signals the market is sending. That worked out *real* well for bagholders of Worldcom, Enron, Sun Microsystems, and at this point, it appears, even Automatic Data Processing, one of their favorites.
This is not to say that patience is a bad thing, but only that blind devotion to a stock even through badly damaged fundamentals and the intrusion of important new information is insane.
Now, in mid-2002, much of this book elicits guffaws -- but the strength of the laughter is inversely proportional, I suspect, to how badly burned one was by following the authors' loopy advice.
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Reviewed in Canada on September 27, 1999
This is not a prediction book. The authors write well and their writing is accessable to the average investor. You are treated to a common sense approach to investing. I do not know if the number 36,000 will be met in the next few years, but the point is one should be preparing for whenever the Dow does get to such lofty heights.

Top reviews from other countries

Broken iPod owner
5.0 out of 5 stars Hilarious
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 1, 2014
Verified Purchase
anyone watching Youtube knows that the most hilarious fail is preceded by someone announcing their imminent success, and these people lecturing about how shares are unsinkable just before a ginormous crash will be hilarious to anyone who knew what comes next

anyone who knows nothing about the market should steer clear though - lots of inside talk, and it effectively says it is safe to walk on water and set yourself on fire in terms of shares

pity for the authors, as a lot of what is written makes sense - they just forgot the law of gravity
Sentosa Enterprises
5.0 out of 5 stars A social "science" masterpiece
Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2011
Verified Purchase
This social "science" masterpiece should be required reading for any student in economics or the other social "sciences". Co-authored by social "scientist" Kevin A. Hassett, the book claims "stocks are actually less risky than bonds". Published shortly before the tech bubble burst in early 2000, the book states the Dow will climb to 36,000 "in the next few years". Both authors are affiliated with the think tank American Enterprise Institute. The preface of my edition was written after the Nasdaq crashed, and they show no remorse: "We have not changed our conviction. Nothing has caused us to alter one word of our theory". This book should serve as a stark warning to anyone who looks to social "scientists" to find truth or predict the future. Due to their lack of remorse, one has to suspect that the authors will not refund the money of investors who lost it in the stock market after reading this piece of garbage. Reading the reviews from 1999 is hilarious.
William C. Moffatt
5.0 out of 5 stars Encyclopedia of Folly
Reviewed in the United States on October 24, 2010
Verified Purchase
I recently picked up this book and "Why The Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit From It." As an investor, I believe that it is important to study in detail what seemed like obvious truth at the time and later turned out to be folly and self-deception. I read them to try to develop insight into the errors of thought that might pervade the current market and to prepare to take advantage of them.
Somchai Tungjitsitcharoen
5.0 out of 5 stars 95% in good condition, only soft cover is same as old book(some teared & dust kept)
Reviewed in the United States on August 20, 2019
Verified Purchase
Concept in book is easy to understand & classic for all time investment principle
D. Atkinson
3.0 out of 5 stars Three Stars
Reviewed in the United States on April 25, 2017
Verified Purchase
I bought it as a joke gift. Mine was autographed by one of the authors. Vendor service was great