The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century Hardcover – Jan 27 2009
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"With a unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling, Friedman (America’s Secret War) offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. The author asserts that “the United States’ power is so extraordinarily overwhelming” that it will dominate the coming century, brushing aside Islamic terrorist threats now, overcoming a resurgent Russia in the 2010s and ’20s and eventually gaining influence over space-based missile systems that Friedman names “battle stars.” Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, an independent geopolitical forecasting company, and his authoritative-sounding predictions are based on such factors as natural resources and population cycles. While these concrete measures lend his short-term forecasts credence, the later years of Friedman’s 100-year cycle will provoke some serious eyebrow raising. The armed border clashes between Mexico and the United States in the 2080s seem relatively plausible, but the space war pitting Japan and Turkey against the United States and allies, prognosticated to begin precisely on Thanksgiving Day 2050, reads as fantastic (and terrifying) science fiction. Whether all of the visions in Friedman’s crystal ball actually materialize, they certainly make for engrossing entertainment." --Publishers Weekly
“This is a book about unintended consequences and how the constraints of time and place impact the behavior of individuals and nations and offer a view of future events. [Friedman’s] theories are fascinating….This is an excellent book.”
“Futurologist Friedman entertainingly explains how America will bestride the world during this century. Prophecy, whether by astrologers, science-fiction writers or geopoliticians, has a dismal track record, but readers will enjoy this steady stream of clever historical analogies, economic analyses and startling demographic data.”
“There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8-Ball.”
—New York Times Magazine
“Barron’s consistently has found Stratfor’s insights informative and largely on the money—as has the company’s large client base, which ranges from corporations to media outlets and government agencies.”
“One of the country’s leading strategic affairs experts.”
About the Author
GEORGE FRIEDMAN is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of four books, including most recently America’s Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.See all Product Description
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Top Customer Reviews
I found the writing style to be unsophisticated; meaning it is written like a casual newspaper article. I liken his style to writing the whole book in a single sitting. He repeats himself frequently throughout the book, and sometimes even repeating incorrectly (contextually-speaking). If you are a serious bookworm, you will have noticed this issue as well. Editorially, more care should have been given..
Another gripe I can mention is the fact that some of his chapters are written like a science fiction story, most obviously the Star Wars chapter, the war among the US, Japan and Turkey. A preemptive strike from the moon, destruction of Battle Stars, launching of a secretly built Battle Star (by the USA), etc. Wildly science fiction, certainly straying from the serious tones struck elsewhere in the book.
Overall, the message in the book could have been conveyed in half the writing space. By the half-point mark, the book certainly lost my interest. File this under "Library Loaner" than "Purchase-Worthy".
The predictions in this book are interesting and very detailed: everything from economics, geopolitics, specific technological advances (mainly in military weaponry), population and ethnic demographics, and even the next world war and how it will be fought. I can't underscore this point enough Friedman is very specific in describing what will precipitate the next war, how it will be fought, who the players and allies will be, and how it will be won and lost. Many of the details will surprise you.
This book's value is more in its entertainment than in its likelihood. That's not meant to denigrate the author, who is a very brilliant strategic thinker. But there are many areas in which the predictions are either unimaginative or highly unlikely.Read more ›
George Friedman believes that considerations of potential military defense and offense, access to needed raw materials and markets, demographics, political strengths and weaknesses, technology, and national economic interests can be combined to imagine how future leaders will see their situations and how well they will be able to handle old and new challenges vis-à-vis their neighbors and competitors. From those sources, he identifies factors that will probably be important which include:
1. Increasing importance of having access to shipping via the oceans due to ever-expanding global trade.
2. Continued U.S. dominance of the oceans.
3. Political and social weaknesses in China and Russia that will cause those nations to weaken and fragment.
4. Decline in population size in developed countries requiring pro-immigration strategies to stay competitive.
5. Emergence of space-based warfare and energy generation to shift the basis of national competition.
6. Robotics replacing less-skilled workers throughout the world creating a wave of unemployment.
7. Aggressive geographical expansions of influence by nations which are bounded by weak countries.
8.Read more ›
Most recent customer reviews
Will make you rethink about the past, present and future. Very well written and easy reading.Published 8 months ago by Sol
This is the most amazing book I've read in a decade! A very interesting read if you're into geopolitics and I tend to agree with the author.Published 11 months ago by Alex Povolotski
bad book for a serious case study
good book for a crazy futuristic novel totally invented
book is not at all what i expected.Zeilhan book is much more interesting
A very interesting book written in 2009 and everything is right concerning Ukraine and East Europe.Published on July 14 2014 by Iurie Iasinschi
Got the book and received timely. Book is awesome read. It was finished in no time. One of the best reading material I had recently...Published on June 7 2014 by hbaymak