Top critical review
Dull Book on Fascinating Subject
November 25, 2015
Tetlock has done some fascinating research for the U.S. national security services to find that some individuals tend to be significantly better at forecasting (the "superforecasters") than most others, including the so-called experts. The focus is on relatively precise, relatively short-term forecasts that can therefore be measured. The superforecasters tend to be "foxes" scanning their environment for bits of intelligence rather than "hedgehogs" who have and stick to one big idea. Unfortunately, the material tends to be repetitive, redundant and rather too interested in glorifying Tetlock's work. His nominal co-author is Dan Gardner, a fine writer whose earlier book, Risk, admittedly drawing on Tetlock's work, is actually a much better and in many ways more insightful read. I would recommend Gardner's book to anyone interested in analysing risk. Tetlock's not so much.